November 18, 2010
Parkmerced's Proposed Urban Design, Open Space, And Sustainability
In addition to 5,679 net new residences over the next two to three decades, the proposed redevelopment plan for Parkmerced includes the "the addition of new neighborhood serving retail and office space, new and re-configured public open spaces including neighborhood parks, pedestrian and bike paths, athletic fields, a new organic farm, and community gardens, overall transportation improvements, ecological hydrology improvements, and provision of renewable energy and water infrastructure."
The proposed new neighborhood core [concentrated on Crespi Drive, near the northeast part of the site and the light-rail line] would be located within walking distance of all the residences within Parkmerced.
Small neighborhood-serving retail establishments would be constructed outside of the neighborhood core, in close proximity to residential units throughout the site. A new elementary school (to replace an existing one on-site) and daycare facility, fitness center, and new open space uses including athletic fields, walking and biking paths, a new organic farm, and community gardens would also be provided on the Project Site.
Infrastructure improvements would include the installation of renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and photovoltaic cells.
The proposed Project would provide 68 acres of open space in a network of publically accessible neighborhood parks, athletic fields, public plazas, greenways and an organic farm....In addition to these 68 acres of open space, the Project would provide significant additional open space in the form of private or semi-private open space areas such as outdoor courtyards, roof decks, and balconies.
The transportation system modifications proposed as part of the Parkmerced Development Project, as described in the Transportation Plan, would include rerouting the existing MUNI Metro M Ocean View line from 19th Avenue through the development, new and re-designed public streets, and modifications to intersections and streets around the perimeter of the site.
Off-street parking for the residential units will primarily, but not exclusively be in underground garages, and will be concentrated on the west side of the site (while units are concentrated toward the eastern half) to discourage casual usage.
This afternoon the Planning Commission will host an informational hearing and overview of the Parkmerced Project with a particular focus on the aforementioned urban design, open space, and sustainability.
∙ The Parkmerced Thirty Year Plan: Public Scoping Meeting Tonight [SocketSite]
∙ The Parkmerced Project [sf-planning.org]
∙ Parkmerced Vision Plan [sf-planning.org]
∙ Parkmerced Sustainability Plan [sf-planning.org]
∙ Parkmerced Transportation Plan [sf-planning.org]
∙ San Francisco Planning Commission Agenda: November 18, 2010 [sf-planning.org]
San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 21.2% YOY In October
Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 21.2% on a year-over-year basis last month (436 recorded sales in October ’10 versus 553 sales in October ‘09), down 1.4% as compared to the month prior which was down 17.5% on a year-over-year basis and versus a 12.3% drop in August.
For context, October sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 720 (2004), 670 (2005), 573 (2006), 526 (2007), and 414 (2008). And on average, from 2004 to 2009 sales volume increased 0.3% from September to October.
San Francisco's median sales price in October was $652,000, down 5.6% compared to October ’09 ($690,824) but up 5.2% compared to the month prior.
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in October was down 22.8% on a year-over-year basis, down 3.3% from the month prior (6,122 recorded sales in October '10 versus 7,933 in October ’09 and 6,334 in September '10) as the recorded median sales price fell 1.8% on a year-over-year basis, down 3.0% as compared to the month prior.
Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose for the third consecutive month to 29.5 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market. That was up from 27.5 percent in September but down from 31.3 percent in October 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 8 percent.
Government-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 25.6 percent of all home purchase mortgages in October, up from 24.1 percent in September and 25.2 percent in October 2009.
At the extremes, Sonoma recorded a 29.8% drop in sales volume (a loss of 164 transactions) on a 6.6% decrease in median sales price in October while Napa recorded a 24.8% decrease in sales volume (a loss of 30 transactions) on a 14.7% decrease in median.
As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
∙ Bay Area Home Sales Fall Sharply; Median Price Dips Below Last Year [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 17.5% In September [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 12.3% In August [SocketSite]
He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]
∙ FHA: Not Out Of The Woods But Feeling A Little Less Lost [SocketSite]
Target + Metreon = (Twenty-Two Foot) Bull's-Eye In 2012
Unanimously approved by the San Francisco Redevelopment Agency on Tuesday, an 85,000 square foot Target could be open for business in the Metreon by mid-2012.
The project calls for the dramatic massive vertical glass fin Metreon sign at Fourth and Market to be replaced with a 22-foot diameter illuminated bull's-eye sign. At the Nov. 16 hearing, project manager Amy Neches said the red and white sign would be "artistic and textured."
"This is not your typical plastic Target you would see in the suburbs," she said.
The development is expected to generate $120,000 annually in payroll tax, $5.4 million in sales tax, and an additional $1 million at the city-owned 5th and Mission garage.
In addition to the Target, the Metreon will move and triple the size of its food court. Instead of a dark, 110-seat food court shoved into a ground floor corner, the new collection of eateries will feature 470 seats and overlook Yerba Buena Gardens.
Efforts to put a Target at Geary and Masonic continue on.
∙ Metreon Target wins approvals [San Francisco Business Times]
∙ One Word: Target. Okay, Four: Target At The Metreon? [SocketSite]
∙ YIMBY's Set Their Sights On A Target At Geary And Masonic [SocketSite]
November 17, 2010
Sure, SoMa Condos Have Taken A Hit, But This Is Nob Hill
We doubt it will sell at asking, but if it does it might as well be a plugged-in person who picks it up. Purchased for $698,000 in June 2007, taken back by the bank "mid-remodel" last month, and now listed for $389,900, 1177 California #512 is a 1,056 square foot Gramercy Towers one-bedroom atop Nob Hill.
Keep in mind the 411 square foot Gramercy Towers studio #203 is currently in contract as a "short sale" having most recently been listed for "$299,000" and purchased for $362,000 in January 2008.
946 Elizabeth Is Picked
Up Down At 11 Percent Under Its 2007 Sale
From October 2004 to April 2007 the value of the single-family home at 946 Elizabeth increased from $2,100,000 to $2,675,000 for total appreciation of 21 percent and effective annual appreciation of 10 percent per year.
Yesterday the sale of 946 Elizabeth closed escrow with a reported contract price of $2,375,000, an 11 percent ($300,000) drop in value over the past three years.
The winner of our "think you know Noe" closest to the closing price challenge? A plugged-in "tipster" on the record at $2,365,000.
∙ Can You Correctly Pick This Noe Valley Apple To Be? [SocketSite]
At Least The MLS Is Accurate In Terms Of The Reduction...
While a sale of 2041 Sacramento was reported on the MLS October 4 with a contract price of "$1,950,000," it would now appear the Pacific Heights condo overlooking Lafayette Park and Cathedral Hill was actually foreclosed upon with $1,880,877 owed.
Yesterday, the property returned to the market and MLS listed at $1,695,000.
And once again, the top-floor condo was purchased for $2,286,500 in June 2007, had been listed for $2,095,000 a little over a year ago (reduced to $1,999,000), and was relisted as a short sale for "$1,695,000" this past January.
This morning the list price for 2041 Sacramento was reduced $81,236 (7%), now asking $1,577,700 (31% under its year 2007 comp setting price).
∙ Listing: 2041 Sacramento (3/3) 2,503 sqft - $1,577,700 [MLS]
∙ While The MLS Reports A "Sale," Public Records Report A Foreclosure [SocketSite]
∙ A Year Later An Apple Falls In Pacific Heights (2041 Sacaramento) [SocketSite]
∙ An Apples To Apples (And Rather Prime) Update For 2041 Sacramento [SocketSite]
∙ North To South (And Apples To Apples) From Atop 2041 Sacramento [SocketSite]
Appreciation Depreciation At 1070 Sanchez
Purchased for $1,910,000 in July 2007, the 2,543 square foot Noe Valley condo at 1070 Sanchez returned to the market this past February asking $2,095,000, it ended up selling for $1,762,500 in August, 8% under its 2007 value (19% under February expectations).
Quickly repainted, staged, and relisted for $1,799,000 a month later, the resale of the top-floor unit with deck and views closed escrow yesterday with a reported contract price of $1,725,000, an additional drop of 2% ($37,500) in value over the past three months.
∙ Annualized Appreciation Of 18.5 Percent At Asking For 1070 Sanchez [SocketSite]
U.S. Housing Starts Take A Big Hit
Driven by a 44 percent drop in multifamily units, housing starts in the U.S. fell to a 519,000 annual rate in October, down 12 percent from September and the slowest pace since the record low of 477,000 reached in April 2009. Single-family home starts fell 1.1 percent.
Record-low mortgage rates have failed to boost demand, highlighting the limits of Federal Reserve monetary policy in undoing the damage from the bursting of the housing bubble. Companies like D.R. Horton Inc. are bracing for the worst in early 2011 as unemployment hovers near 10 percent and the lifting of foreclosure moratoriums swells the supply of houses.
Now about that Base Case scenario...
∙ Housing Starts in U.S. Drop 12%, More Than Forecast [Bloomberg]
∙ FHA: Not Out Of The Woods Yet Feeling A Little Less Lost [SocketSite]
November 16, 2010
FHA: Not Out Of The Woods But Feeling A Little Less Lost
The Federal Housing Administration released its annual report to Congress on the financial status of its Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund today. Since last year, the FHA's capital reserve ratio fell from 0.53 to 0.50 percent, insurance claims were 21 percent lower than predicted, and the economic value of FHA’s single-family insurance program increased from $3.6 to $4.7 billion.
Like last year’s report to Congress, this accounting shows that FHA is sustaining significant losses from loans insured prior to 2009 and its capital reserve ratio remains below the congressionally mandated threshold of two percent of all insurance-in-force. However, the report concludes that under conservative assumptions of future growth of home prices, and without any new policy actions, FHA’s capital ratio is expected to approach two percent in 2014 and exceed the statutory requirement in 2015.
FHA’s capital reserve ratio measures reserves in excess of those needed to cover projected losses over the next 30 years. The independent actuarial reviews of the MMI Fund estimate FHA’s capital reserve ratio to be 0.50 percent of total insurance-in-force this year, falling fractionally from 0.53 percent in 2009. The difference is primarily attributed to the use of much more conservative assumptions regarding future house price growth than were used last year, which also resulted in an $8.5 billion decrease in economic value. However, that decrease was offset by a variety of factors, including an $8.7 billion increase in value due to better credit quality, loan performance, and the premium increase implemented earlier this year.
Due in large part to the performance of recently originated loans, FHA’s total capital resources increased by $1.5 billion since last year, to $33.3 billion, and are at their highest level ever – $5.5 billion greater than predicted last year. If the economy were to suffer a further significant downturn, recovery of the capital ratio could be delayed beyond the projected timeframe. However, even in the actuaries’ worst-case stress test scenario, FHA’s capital resources remain sufficient to cover projected claim losses and FHA would not require a taxpayer subsidy, an improvement over last year’s assessment and due to new loans having higher credit quality than had been anticipated.
Loans insured before 2009 are responsible for 70 percent of the expected single family loan losses. Though they are now prohibited, so-called “seller-financed down payment assistance loans” produced $6.6 billion in claims to-date and may ultimately cost FHA $13.6 billion. Without these seller-financed loans, FHA’s capital ratio would be above the congressionally mandated two percent threshold. Conversely, loans insured since 2009 earned $4.8 billion in economic value to the MMI Fund and are estimated to generate $28.3 billion in economic value by 2016. Expected economic value of FY 2010 and FY 2011 loans alone are estimated to reach $11 billion.
The FHA’s forecast assumes an average peak-to-trough housing price drop of 17% from 2007 based on a "Base Case" economic scenario which Moody’s considers to have a 50 percent probability of being as bad or worse than predicted.
A mild second recession (25 percent probability) which "assumes that financial policy initiatives such as foreclosure mitigation are put in place and access to credit improves moderately, but that the improvement is too gradual to allow for a substantial rebound in the housing market until 2012" would result in an average 25% peak-to-trough drop in housing prices and yield a -1.03% capital ratio for the FHA.
A deeper second recession (10 percent probability) which "assumes that the moderate rebound in housing construction in the first half of 2009 pauses and reverses course due to restricted access to credit and continuing high unemployment [with] no significant recovery...until mid-2012" would result in a forecast 31% peak-to-trough drop in housing prices and yield a -1.80% capital ratio for the FHA.
And a complete collapse which "assumes that foreclosure mitigation policies are unproductive, house prices resume their decline, and the NAR median existing sale price falls cumulatively by 45 percent from its 2005 peak to the third quarter of 2012" would result in an average 35% peak-to-trough drop in housing prices and yield a -2.29% capital ratio for the FHA, but is given a probability of only 4 percent.
∙ Annual Report to Congress Regarding the Financial Status of the FHA [hud.gov]
∙ OMG For The FHA [SocketSite]
∙ Financial Status of the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund FY 2010 [hud.gov]
The Vision For 899 Valencia On The Northeast Corner Of 20th
On northeast corner of Valencia and 20th Streets an old one-story service station and surface area parking lot reside. As proposed, a 50,000-square foot, five-story mixed-use building with 18 dwelling units over 7,100 square feet of ground-floor retail space and a below-grade 18-car parking garage would rise.
Tomorrow, San Francisco’s Historic Preservation Commission will review and forward their comments on the proposed project to the Planning Department for incorporation into the project’s final environmental evaluation document.
"The proposed project requires a public hearing because its proposed height would exceed by more than 10 feet the height of adjacent properties at 877 Valencia Street and 3578 20th Street, both of which were constructed prior to 1963."
A Contract To Preserve 1818 California (Lilienthal-Orville Pratt House)
San Francisco Landmark #55, the Board of Supervisors will vote this afternoon on a Mills Act historical property contract for the Lilienthal-Orville Pratt House at 1818 California.
In exchange for agreeing to seismically reinforce the foundation of the two-story building at an estimated cost of $253,000, and to provide ongoing maintenance to preserve the building at an estimated cost of $22,667 annually (a cost that’s often overlooked in rent versus buy calculations), the contract will reduced 1818 California's annual property tax bill from $42,309 to $10,692, a savings of $31,617 per year.
Other items on the agenda for today’s Board meeting, Supervisor Mirkarimi’s resolution seeking an investigation into the going-ons at the Historic Sacred Heart Church and a few final zoning hurdles for the development of 222 Second Street for which an EIR has been approved and exceptions already granted.
∙ Historical Property Contract for 1818 California Street [sfbos.org]
∙ San Francisco’s Sacred Heart Church: A Modern Day Crusade [SocketSite]
∙ 222 Second Street Seeks Certification (And Exceptions) This Week [SocketSite]
Louis Christian Mullgardt Meets Eden and Eden At 226 Edgewood
We weren’t too sure what to make of the juxtaposition between old and new when 226 Edgewood first hit the market three weeks ago asking $3,500,000, so we’ll turn to the report of a plugged-in reader who’s since taken the tour.
Original portion by Louis Christian Mullgardt, 1911 (according to AIA guide by Sally Woodbridge) and addition by Eden and Eden, 1970s, according to listing agent.
Original portion a fine Arts and Crafts house, and addition strongly influenced by Frank Lloyd Wright's Taliesin East - long cantilevers, corner windows sans mullions, pierced roof openings over balcony, piano hinges on doors, very fine redwood woodwork.
In beautiful shape on a large well landscaped lot, and views to die for.
And with parking for four cars, perhaps you could lease a space to the the Henrik Bull remodeled home at 227 Edgewood across the avenue.
∙ Listing: 226 Edgewood Avenue (4/4) - $3,500,000 [MLS]
∙ Bull-ish On Edgewood And New Listings From Which To Choose... [SocketSite]
Belli Would Be Fired Up As 2950 Broadway Is Reduced By $5,600,000
As we wrote in May of 2009:
It’s the outer Broadway mansion from which Melvin Belli ran naked "firing a pistol at his wife who hosted a real estate show for the highest priced properties on television."
It’s a Frederick Herman Meyer design, and an ex-Decorator Showcase home (Miss 1987 to be exact). And as a tipster notes, 2950 Broadway is in the process of getting prepped for sale and "coming soon" (asking $39,500,000).
Also noted, it's perhaps the only Gold Coast property with an outdoor pool.
And while it’s still not listed inventory, it’s a plugged-in tipster that notes after a year and a half on the market the asking price for the 24 Karat Gold Coast home at 2950 Broadway has been reduced 14 percent, which in this case represents $5,600,000.
Now asking $33,900,000. And did we mention that outdoor pool?
∙ Listing: 2950 Broadway (6/6) - $33,900,000 [2950broadway.com] [Brochure] [History]
∙ 24 Karat Gold Coast Coming Soon (2950 Broadway) [SocketSite]
∙ When Friia Ruled San Francisco Real Estate (A Reader’s Recollection) [SocketSite]
∙ 24 Karat Gold Coast (2950 Broadway) Brochure, Plans, And History [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco's Seasonal Listed Housing Slide Underway [SocketSite]
November 15, 2010
Central Subway Eminent Domain And Last Resort Housing Plan
As the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency scrambles to fund the non-federal portion of San Francisco’s Central Subway Project, this afternoon San Francisco’s Land Use and Economic Development Committee tackles an ordinance in support of the SFMTA’s Relocation Impact Study and Last Resort Housing Plan for the project.
Approved by the Board of Supervisors in July, the SFMTA is moving forward with five eminent domain actions – three easements for the Project tunnel, and two acquisitions for the Moscone and Chinatown Station sites.
The Moscone Station site is at 266-286 4th Street at the corner of Folsom Street in the Yerba Buena Neighborhood south of Market Street. The property is owned and operated by Convenience Retailers LLC, a multi-state gas service Station and convenience store enterprise. It is also occupied by an independent contractor hired by the property owner for smog shop services.
The Chinatown Station site [pictured above] is at 933-949 Stockton Street at Washington Street in Chinatown. It is owned by a private entity, Norman P. Chan Inc. this property contains eight retail tenants including four restaurants, two hair salons, one meat market, and a property management firm on the ground floor. The second floor contains 18 residential units, which are occupied by 19 families (approximately 56 individuals).
The estimated cost of relocation is approximately $4,187,600. And while the SFMTA continues to negotiate with all five property owners, it is also "preparing eminent domain actions, as necessary, to maintain the project schedule." Assuming there will be a scheduled to maintain of course.
San Francisco's Seasonal Listed Housing Slide Underway
Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 7.6% over the past three weeks to 1,834 active listings. On average, inventory has fallen 5.7% during the same three weeks over the past four years.
Current listed inventory remains up 36% on a year-over-year basis, up 21% versus the average of the past four years, and up 37% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. Listed sales in October (372) appear to be off by 17% on a year-over-year basis.
The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco remains up 55% on a year-over-year basis to 764 while listed condo inventory is up 25% to 1,070.
Almost 47% of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (106) or seeking a short sale (189) is up to 16%, up 4% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks to a new decade-plus high.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
Dear Santa, A Pony And Two Hundred Million For A Subway Please...
Earlier this year the Federal green light and initial funds were given for San Francisco to enter the final design stage for the $1.6 billion Central Subway project, but the bulk of funding to construct the subway is dependent upon the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency securing "at least $137 million, and possibly as much as $225 million" of non-federal funds for the project.
From the Chronicle:
The hunt for funds comes at a bad time. Not only has the struggling economy dried up much transportation funding and forced Muni, like other transit agencies, to cut service and raise fares, but both the city and Congress are in the midst of turbulent political transitions. All of that could combine to complicate, delay or possibly even derail the effort to build a new subway from downtown to Chinatown - if Muni has trouble finding the funds.
Adding to the uncertainty are new Muni ridership projections that show about 14 percent fewer trips on the Central Subway than initially forecast if the agency is able to fully implement an ongoing program to improve the efficiency of the transit system.
The deadline for the SFMTA to identify their source of funds is three months away.
∙ It’s All About The Benjamins: Transbay And Central Subway News [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco's Central Subway: Make That 2018 And An Extra $278M [SocketSite]
∙ S.F. agency must find millions for Central Subway [SFGate]
November 12, 2010
One Rincon (Back) Up To 87 Percent Sold
Purchased for $2,019,000 ($1,037 per square foot) in September 2008, 425 1st Street #3004 returned to the market five months ago asking $1,998,000 ($1,026 per square).
Reduced, delisted and relisted a few times since, yesterday the One Rincon Hill three-bedroom was withdrawn from the MLS last asking $1,699,000 ($873 per square foot) and without a reported sale.
At the same time, yesterday the sales office at One Rincon Hill announced they’re "now 87% sold!" (up from 80% a year ago) while touting the 1,930 square foot #2903 which has been listed at $1,495,000 ($775 per square foot) for the past three weeks.
Call it roughly 30 net new sales at One Rincon Hill over the past year with roughly 50 left to close (versus the 40 we estimated in July).
∙ Three On The Thirtieth At One (Rincon) [SocketSite]
∙ A Bit Of "02" Irony (And 80 Percent Sold) At One Rincon Hill [SocketSite]
∙ Another Round Of Sales Office Reductions At One Rincon Hill [SocketSite]
A Fall(ing) Single-Family Apple On Cole
Purchased for $1,700,000 in November 2005 by way of a $1,105,000 first and $425,000 second (i.e., 10 percent down), in 2008 the Cole Valley Edwardian at 1027 Cole returned to the market priced at $2,195,000 and was reduced to $2,145,000 before being withdrawn.
In 2009 the property was relisted as a "short sale" asking $1,695,000. And this past September the property was returned to the bank.
Yesterday 1027 Cole was listed for $1,377,000, 19 percent below its year 2005 price (37 percent below its year 2008 expectations).
∙ Listing: 1027 Cole Street (3/3) 2,495 sqft - $1,377,000 [MLS]
Over Asking! (But Four Percent Less Than Seven Months Ago)
The sale of 1167 Bosworth closed escrow on Wednesday with a reported contract price of $1,010,000. That's 9 percent "over asking!" but just 1 percent over its 2004 value ($1,000,000) and 4 percent under its sale price of just seven months ago ($1,051,000).
∙ 1167 Bosworth Is Back And Seeking Another Outlier Bid [SocketSite]
November 11, 2010
Five Months, Two New Bedrooms And One Long Fireplace Later...
A dated 976 square foot two-bedroom with one bath when purchased for $865,000 this past May (originally asking $1,010,000), 156 Vicksburg has returned to the market as a "dramatic & chic" three-bedroom with two and one-half baths and a "sexy fireplace wall."
Apparently long fireplace walls are thought to be the new new thing this year (or somebody was having a sale). And a peek inside the "before" (note the difference in ceiling heights):
∙ Listing: 156 Vicksburg (3/2.5) - $1,598,000 [MLS]
∙ 1847 Scott Street Returns Anew (This Time For Reals) [SocketSite]