November 30, 2010
September Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Slide Continues
According to the September 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.9% from August ’10 to September '10, down 35.2% from a peak in May 2006 and up 5.5% year-over-year (YOY) versus a 14.3% YOY gain reported in June, an 11.2% gain reported in July, and 7.8% in August.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.5% from August to September, down 28.7% from a June 2006 peak as the year-over-year gain slipped to 1.6%.
For the second time in seven months prices fell on a month-over-month basis for the bottom two price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes.
The bottom third (under $345,614 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.6% from August to September (up 7.1% YOY); the middle third fell 0.5% from August to September (up 4.6% YOY); and the top third (over $631,319 at the time of acquisition) was unchanged (up 2.1% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA returned to October 2000 levels having fallen 56% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to March 2003 levels having fallen 35% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains just below April 2004 levels having fallen 23% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.5% from August ’10 to September '10 for a nominal 0.3% gain on a year-over-year basis (down 27.6% from December 2005).
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Broad-based Declines in Home Prices in the 3rd Quarter of 2010 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ Case-Shiller Says...San Francisco MSA Falls Across All Tiers In August [SocketSite]
November 29, 2010
Heads-Up Near The Hallidie Building (130 Sutter)
From a recent structural observation report for the Willis Polk designed Hallidie Building at 130 Sutter Street, San Francisco Landmark number 37 and one of the first examples of glass curtain-walled design:
The purpose of this inspection was to assess the general condition of ornamental metal and their anchorage to the building. We were limited to inspections of the first level of these metal pieces, which are located near the elevation of the second floor. We were assisted in this inspection with the use of a man lift.
Removal of a portion of the metal cladding allowed us to inspect the interior of the metal pieces and thereby we were able to observe the attachment of these pieces to the building structure. The pieces are attached to various steel brackets which are in turn attached to steel out riggers that are an extension of the steel framework of the building. We noted that the steel brackets were not painted with in the concealed space of the metal pieces but were painted where they are exposed to the exterior. We also noted that the roof enclosure over the metal pieces appears to have been leaking for a considerable amount of time.
Of considerable concern is the condition of the steel brackets observed. Pieces of the brackets have deteriorated to the point where they are no longer functional. The steel has completed delaminated and portions of the steel members have disintegrated. It is our opinion that it is just a matter of time before portions of the façade supported by these brackets will fall off of the building.
We strongly recommend that corrective action be taken immediately. Falling protection, some of which we noted has been installed, should be reviewed and complemented if found necessary. Removal of all badly deteriorated elements should begin as soon as possible.
On Wednesday an informational hearing regarding emergency work on the building will be heard by the Historic Preservation Commission as rehabilitation work on the landmark building requires a Certificate of Appropriateness from the Commission.
In the meantime, heads-up.
∙ JustQuotes: Looking At SF Through Blue/Green Colored Glass(es) [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Landmark 37: Hallidie Building (130 Sutter) [noehill.com]
∙ Informational Presentation on Emergency Work at 130 Sutter Street [sf-planning.org]
While The Miraloma Median Is Up An (Improved) Apple Falls
As we wrote this past October:
Listed for $669,000 in October 2004, the single-family Miraloma Park home at 46 Los Palmos sold for $720,000 that December ($571 per square foot). Back on the market as of today and asking $699,000 ($555 per square), unfortunately the sale pair won’t be perfectly apples-to-apples as the kitchen was recently remodeled.
And for those who like medians, the median price per square foot for single-family homes in the area is currently running $565 in 2010 versus $567 in 2004 and $684 in 2007. At the same time the median sale price is currently running $915,000 in 2010 versus $820,000 in 2004 and $1,031,000 in 2007.
Yes, that means the median sized Miraloma sale is up 16 percent from 2004 which some might call a change in mix while others might (mis)call it "prices are up 12 percent!"
The sale of 46 Los Palmos Drive closed escrow on 11/17 with a reported contract price of $710,000. And while that’s two percent "over asking," and the area’s median is up 12 percent from 2004, it’s also one percent under its 2004 value not accounting for the value of its remodeled kitchen.
SocketSite’s Listed San Francisco Inventory Report: 11/29/10
Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 10.6% over the past two weeks to 1,640 active listings. On average, inventory has fallen 9.2% during the same three weeks over the past four years as listing activity around Thanksgiving slows to a crawl (34 new listings last week).
Current listed inventory remains up 30% on a year-over-year basis, up 20% versus the average of the past four years, and up 38% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007 while listed sales this past October (372) were off by 17% year-over-year.
The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 44% on a year-over-year basis at 666 while listed condo inventory is up 21% at 974.
Almost half (47%) of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (114) or seeking a short sale (192) is up to 19%, up 4% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ San Francisco's Seasonal Listed Housing Slide Underway [SocketSite]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]
November 25, 2010
Warm Thoughts Of A Traditional Thanksgiving Dinner (2010 Edition)
Not counting its listings in 2007, 2008, or 2009, it’s now 325 days on the market at $2,995,000 for 2170 Pacific having been purchased for $2,350,000 in May 2004. The three-bedroom has also been making the rounds on Craigslist asking $8,500 a month.
Here's to hoping your pantry is plentiful along with your family and friends. Safe travels if you are (traveling). We'll see you next week.
∙ Warm Thoughts Of A Traditional Thanksgiving Dinner (2009 Edition) [SocketSite]
∙ Warm Thoughts Of A Traditional Thanksgiving Dinner (2008 Edition) [SocketSite]
∙ Conjuring Up Warm Thoughts Of A Traditional Thanksgiving Dinner [SocketSite]
∙ On Tour As New (For The Fifth Time In Two Years): 2170 Pacific [SocketSite]
∙ $8500 / 3br - 3.5 Ba House-like Condo, Vus, Pkg, Garden, Grt Location [craigslist.org]
Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM
November 24, 2010
Snow On The Brain (And Mountain) As Squaw Valley Is Sold
While a bit outside our typical coverage area we’ve got snow on the brain and Squaw Valley has been sold to Colorado based KSL Capital Partners which plans to invest $50 million in the resort over the next three to five years.
Current base on the mountain: between fifty (50) and seventy (70) inches.
∙ Squaw Valley USA [squaw.com]
Something To Be Thankful For: U.S. Unemployment Claims Drop
New unemployment claims in the U.S. declined by 34,000 last week to 407,000 for the week ending November 20, the lowest level since July 2008. The number of unemployed continuing to receive regular jobless benefits in the U.S. dropped by 142,000 to 4.18 million the week prior. And the ranks of those “now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 262,000 to 4.66 million” in the week ended November 6.
The U.S. unemployment rate is, however, holding at 9.6% (versus 9.3% in San Francisco).
∙ U.S. Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Since July 2008 [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Falls To 9.3% In October [SocketSite]
Pumpkins To Pumpkins To Pumpkins To Be Up In Bernal
In November 2004 it sold for $720,000, three years later (July 2007) it sold for $790,000.
Listed for $749,000 this past February, 271 Nevada was withdrawn from the MLS in June without a reported sale. And on Friday, the small single-family home "nestled in Bernal Heights with softwood floors, wainscoting, a formal entry foyer, living room w/ fireplace & built-ins, formal dining room w/ box-beam ceiling & leaded glass hutch" returned to the MLS as a short sale listed for "$549,000."
∙ Listing: 271 Nevada (1/1) 875 sqft - $549,000 [MLS]
November 23, 2010
A Corona Heights Craig On Craig's As Correctly Surmised
As we wrote when the listing for the lower half of the Craig Steely redesigned "Xiao-Yen’s House" at 3794 16th Street was withdrawn from the MLS without a reported sale at $1,098,000 in October: "We'll be keeping an eye on that other Craig's list."
∙ Half Of Xiao-Yen’s House (3794 16th Street) Hits The Market [SocketSite]
∙ Keep An Eye Out For A Craig Steely On That Other Craig's List... [SocketSite]
∙ $5000 / 3br - Corona Heights 3bd/2ba stunning architecture! [Craigslist]
Pier 70 (Q)uestions, (A)nswers, And Interested (D)evelopers
One of the questions developers have been asking: "How proscribed is the scale, location, and design of Slipway park as shown in the plan?" And the answer:
Slipways Park is part of the overall Master Plan, developed through the community planning process. Factors defining the park include maximizing public access to the waterfront, the Pier 70 public trust strategy, the setting and form of the former slipways and connections to the Building 12 complex, the anticipated new development and connections to/from the Mirant Power Plant site, and Blue Greenway/ Bay Trail alignment.
The final configuration of Slipways Park must address Master Plan open space goals, the final public trust re-alignment, and the infill development criteria. As shown in the Master Plan, Slipways Park is a major waterfront park of over four acres, plans for the Waterfront Site should include this scale of park.
Teams have until December 13 to throw their hard hats into the development ring.
∙ Pier 70 Waterfront Site Tour attendance [sf-port.org]
∙ Now Calling All Developers For San Francisco’s Pier 70 [SocketSite]
∙ Pier 70 Waterfront Site RFQ: Answers to Questions [sf-port.org]
∙ Building 12 Plans [sf-port.org]
∙ Land Use Supes Oppose Mirant Retrofit, Lennar Seeks Higher IRR [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco's Great Blue Greenway Vision And Interconnected Plans [SocketSite]
∙ Pier 70 Deadline Extended (Prior To Any Punking) [SocketSite]
A '05 List Price Fails To Yield A '05 Result For 2121 Broadway #05
As we wrote in August (Will A 2005 List Price Yield A 2005 Result For 2121 Broadway #5?):
Listed for $2,995,000 in June 2005, the sale of 2121 Broadway #5 closed escrow six weeks later with a reported contract price of $3,111,000. Today, the full-floor Pacific Heights co-op with big views returned to the MLS with a rather familiar list price of $2,995,000.
A sale at asking would represent a 4 percent drop in value below its 2005 sale price.
This past Friday the sale of 2121 Broadway #5 closed escrow with a reported contract price of $2,825,000, call it "only" 6 percent ($170,000) under asking but 9 percent ($286,000) below its year 2005 price for the full floor Pacific Heights co-op.
November 22, 2010
Boom Dizzle’s Old Pad To Go Boom By Way Of Eminent Domain?
Assuming the Board of Supervisors pass a motion tomorrow, on December 7 the Board will hold a public hearing "to consider the acquisition of various real properties by eminent domain for the public purpose of construction the Transbay Transit Center Program."
As we reported by way of a plugged-in tipster back in 2007:
The Transbay Joint Powers Admin [TJPA] over that past few weeks has been sending out offer letters to purchase properties around the Transbay Terminal. The TJPA is moving forward with their acquisition plan for 20+ properties (maybe 33 if memory serves me correct) for their right of way needs. It's very hush hush as they do not want the "offers" to be made public - but "fair market" values are being tossed out there to the land owners. "Fair Market" - mind you the only people the land owners can sell to is the TJPA.
Negotiations will go on for the next few months, but if no final "fair" price is agreed to, then the TJPA will go the [Board of Supervisors] and play the eminent domain card.
Properties now under consideration to be domained: 60 Tehama, 564 Howard, 568 Howard, and the 10 units at 85 Natoma, the Jim Jennings designed Steel Arc building in which "Boom Dizzle" (a.k.a. Baron Davis) once resided.
∙ A TJPA Offer You Really Can’t Refuse [SocketSite]
∙ Boom Dizzle (AKA Baron Davis) Is In The His House (And SoMa) [SocketSite]
∙ Steel Arc Building: 85 Natoma [jimjenningsarchitecture.com]
The First Two Of Twelve Are Listed At Seven Twenty Three Taylor
Both without parking and the two-berooms with some untraditional walls.
∙ Listing: 723 Taylor #301 (1/1) - $549,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 723 Taylor #302 (2/1) - $629,000 [MLS]
∙ 723 Taylor Unwrapped And Coming Soon [SocketSite]
∙ 723 Taylor Rising: Urban Infill In Action And Twelve Units On The Way [SocketSite]
Who Would Have Predicted Nice Parts Of Noe Would Fall This Far?
As we wrote in March 2009:
We’re digging the decks and all the access to the outdoors of this nicely remodeled Noe Valley home. Oh, and the sweet master suite (we have a thing for spacious showers).
Purchased fully remodeled for $1,553,000 in June of 2007, 4214 26th Street was listed four days ago for $1,499,000. As always, if you’re not on record with your own forecast of where it sells, don’t bother to criticizing those who were when it does.
Withdrawn from the market two months later, the property was relisted for $1,495,000 this past July and then reduced to $1,395,000 this past September.
On Friday the sale of the "sexy mid-century style [home] in the heart of Noe Valley" with "modern kitchen," "deck with views of the city" and "unbelievable master suite down" closed escrow with a reported contract price of $1,370,000, 11.8% ($183,000) under its year 2007 value.
The average of the first eight plugged-in predictions from 18 months ago? That would be $1,342,500 or a difference of 2 percent. Believe it.
∙ 4214 26th Street: A Nicely Remodeled Noe Valley Apple On The Tree [SocketSite]
∙ A Bounty Of New Noe Valley Apples (And Summer Inventory) [SocketSite]
Smoking A Little Less Dope Up At 130 Cresta Vista Drive
Purchased for $1,200,000 in September 2004, rented (we believe) to an elaborate marijuana grow operation on the lower level complete with an electric meter bypass busted in January 2009, returned to the market this past February asking $1,350,000, briefly in contract before being reduced to $999,000 and listed as a short sale in June, 130 Cresta Vista Drive was eventually taken back by the bank.
Re-listed for $1,040,000 this past Friday and noting "Spacious Contemporary Home," "unfinished lower level," and special "financing & incentives available." No word on whether or not any of the "incentives" were left over from the bust.
∙ Listing: 130 Cresta Vista Drive (5/5.5) - $1,040,000 [MLS]
∙ The Old Bonus Rooms (So To Speak) At 130 Cresta Vista Drive [SocketSite]
BMR Waivers In A Wavering Economy And Real Estate Market
Plugged-in people saw it coming over a year ago, and on San Francisco’s Land Use and Economic Development Committee agenda this afternoon: An ordinance amending San Francisco’s Residential Inclusionary Affordable Housing Program including a name change to the "Affordable Inclusionary Affordable Housing Program;" the elimination of a provision requiring developments within the Van Ness Market Special Use District to meet at least half of their affordable housing requirement through the construction of housing versus an in-lieu fee; and the easing of restrictions on the resale of Below Market Rate units.
The downturn in the economy has resulted in areas in the City where the restricted, or Below Market Rate ("BMR"), price is close to or, in some instances, below the unrestricted market price of units in the same area. This has led to hardship for some BMR owners who have been unable to resell.
Certain requirements of the Inclusionary Housing Program and the Procedures Manual ensure that the BMR units offer affordable, high-quality housing and not investment opportunities. In particular, BMR units must be purchased by first-time homebuyers; owner-occupied at all times with a limited allowance for renting; BMR households [must have] at least as many people as bedrooms in the unit; a BMR household must meet an asset test in addition to an earned income test; and the unit must resell to a household whose income is no higher than the income level designated for the unit.
However, these rules sometimes prevent interested buyers from being qualified to purchase BMR resale units because they are unable to sell. During economic downturns, especially, this narrowing of the pool of potential buyers can harm households who may need to sell their units in a timely manner in order to avoid default or foreclosure.
The proposed amendments would give the Mayor’s Office of Housing the discretion to waive the first-time homebuyer requirement, to waive the household size requirement, to waive the owner occupancy requirement, to modify the asset test limitation, and to increase the qualifying income level by 20%.
And yes, waivers would apply to developer sales of BMR units in new developments as well.
∙ Land Use and Economic Development Committee Agenda: 11/22/10 [
∙ Amending San Francisco's Inclusionary Housing Ordinance [sfbos.org]
∙ Buy A BMR For
$10K $25K More Than Bank-Owned At Candlestick Point [SocketSite]
∙ Buy A BMR...For $10K More Than Bank-Owned At Candlestick Point [SocketSite]
Apples To Apples To Apples At 848 Potrero Avenue
The sale of 848 Potrero closed escrow this past Thursday with a reported contract price of $750,000. Sold for $849,000 in November 2005 and then again in April 2008 for $920,000, call it an apples-to-apples drop of 11.7% below its 2005 value but 18.5% below its 2008 value for the remodeled single-family home with unwarranted one-bedroom below.
∙ One Less Listing (But Without A Reported Sale) [SocketSite]
∙ Inner Mission Apples-To-Apples-To-Apples To Be At 848 Potrero [SocketSite]
November 19, 2010
The Number Of The 465 Hoffman And An Eight Month Noe Apple To Be
It's now eight months later and the "two-unit" single-family home has returned to the market as an apple asking asking $2,995,000 but now listed at 4,500 square feet which, as a plugged-in reader notes, equals $666 per square.
∙ Listing: 465 Hoffman Avenue (4/4.5) - $2,995,000 [MLS]
∙ A Post-Preview List Price Of $3,900,000 For 465 Hoffman Avenue [SocketSite]
∙ Mixing It Up In Noe Valley: 465 Hoffman Sells For $675 Per Square [SocketSite]
San Francisco County Unemployment Falls To 9.3% In October
Preliminary October labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.3%, 8.0% and 8.5% respectively, down 0.3 percentage points in San Francisco, down 0.4 percentage points in Marin, and down 0.6 percentage points in San Mateo.
On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco decreased by 1,600 in October (from 44,100 to 42,500) as the number of employed increased by 500 (from 412,200 to 412,700) and the labor force contracted by 1,100 (from 456,300 to 455,200).
Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points to 12.0% as the labor force contracted by 74,200 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 60,300.
A Cup Plan B And Latest Economic Impact Report
A "Plan B" proposal for hosting the next America’s Cup in San Francisco would shift the public view areas a couple miles north from Piers 30-32 to Piers 27-29 and eliminate the use of Piers 48 and 50 in order to "save the city and race organizers money while giving spectators a better view of the action."
A report from the Board of Supervisors' budget analyst released Thursday found that the city's direct cost of hosting the Cup would be $42.1 million. There is also an estimated $86.2 million in lost revenue for granting development rights and free leases of up to 75 years for parcels of waterfront property to race organizers, led by billionaire Oracle CEO Larry Ellison.
Besides the $128.3 million hit to city coffers, which could grow to $143 million with financing, the report found that hosting the weeks of races would boost local businesses, pumping an estimated $1.2 billion into the city's economy.
Newsom's office, though, contends [the budget analyst's] figures don't factor in $32 million that an America's Cup Organizing Committee of civic and business leaders have pledged to raise to help defray city costs, nor do the projections for development revenue account for the decrepit shape of the piers now under consideration for race facilities.
Eliminating Pier 48 from the proposal would also eliminate a potential conflict with the proposed development of Seawall 337 (the current Giants Parking Lot A).
∙ San Francisco weighs cost of hosting America's Cup [SFGate]
∙ The Pitch To Sail The America’s Cup Into San Francisco's Bay [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite Weekend Special: One Proposal For San Francisco SWL 337 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s America’s Cup Fundraising And Property Pledge [SocketSite]