According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis last month (573 recorded sales in June ’10 versus 561 sales in June ‘09), down 7.0% as compared to the month prior. As we previously noted, keep in mind an incentive to push April closings into May this year.
For context, June sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 938 (2004), 801 (2005), 705 (2006), 633 (2007), and 571 (2008). And from 2004 to 2009 the average May to June sales volume gain was 4.3%.
San Francisco’s median sales price in June was $663,500, up 4.5% compared to June ’09 ($635,000) and up 4.2% compared to the month prior.
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in May was down 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, up 1.3% from the month prior (8,374 recorded sales in June ’10 versus 8,644 in June ’09 and 8,264 in May ’10) as the recorded median sales price rose 16.5% on a year-over-year basis, flat compared to the month prior.
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, think mix (and understand medians).
Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – fell to 26.7 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market. That was the lowest since April 2008 and was down from 26.8 percent in May and 36.7 percent in June 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is 7.9 percent.
Last month 39.2 percent of all Bay Area home sales were over $500,000, down slightly from 40.2 percent in May but up from 34.5 percent last year. Sales over $800,000 rose to 17.2 percent of June sales, up from 15.4 percent in May and 13.9 percent a year ago. Viewed a different way, sales of existing single-family houses in zip codes representing the top one-third of the market, based on their historical prices, accounted for 35.5 percent of all sales in June, about the same as in May but up from 31.3 percent a year ago.
And thank (or curse) the FHA.
Last month federally-insured FHA loans continued to fuel much of the first-time buyer activity and some move-up purchases. The low-down-payment loans made up 25.8 percent of Bay Area purchase lending last month, up from 24.4 percent in May and up from 23.9 percent a year ago, and 10.7 percent two years ago.
At the extremes, Napa recorded a 32.4% increase in sales volume (a gain of 35 transactions) on a 3.5% increase in median sales price in June while Solano recorded a 10.3% decline in sales volume (a loss of 88 transactions) on a 13.5% increase in median.
As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed (“sold”) many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
∙ Bay Area June Home Sales Send Mixed Signals [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In May: Up 23.7% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ He’s It’s Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing “Prices” [SocketSite]
So we have a little over 3 months inventory. Not bad, considering.
[Editor’s Note: Be careful mixing data sets (listed inventory with recorded sales), but the mid-July listed inventory to June sales ratios since 2006:
2006 – 2.0
2007 – 1.8
2008 – 2.6
2009 – 2.8
2010 – 3.1
An equally valid perspective is that the ratio has climbed 50% since 2006.]
Clearly the drop in sales volume MOM is due to the incentive that existed to push sales from April to May.
As that fact was so clearly and boldly highlighted last month, I am surprised it wasn’t mentioned this month!
Either way, it’s a 3 year high for June sales which can’t be bad.
Although, R I tnink you are making the mistake of comparing listed inventory to listed and unlisted sales.
I think listed sales only are here
http://www.rereport.com/sf/ron/ showing a bigger YOY increase in sales (15%). Total listed sales appear to be around 450 so a pretty sizeablechunk of total – and bigger than in the past I think – giving some weight to hangemhis reasons for the corresponding increase in inventory.
As far as the mix argument, goes, I think this is definitely being overplayed, certainly as far as the Bay Area as whoole goes.
I know the regions/timings are slightly different, but the YOY median increase of 16.5% is pretty consistent to that reported by Case Shiller – which as I understand it strips out the effect of mix changes.
Harder to tell, of course, within SF itself.
But if mix is playing a part here, then it does at least show the relative strength of the higher end of the market (compared to 12 months ago at least).
Yes, points taken.. Not trying to say this 3 months is some sort of definitive number. All I’m saying is considering where we are at, somewhere around 3 months inventory ain’t bad..
Yawn. Paint not dry, but grass still growing.
“Either way, it’s a 3 year high for June sales which can’t be bad.”
I guess it’s all a matter of perspective. Here is how the LA Times business section interpreted it: “The Bay Area registered its third worst home sale performance for a June in 15 years last month”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2010/07/bay-area-home-sales-post-weak-june-figures-as-tax-credits-fade.html
here we go again. “bay area” does not equal to “san francisco”