According to the March 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 1.5% from February ’10 to March ’10, down 37.4% from a peak in May 2006 but up 16.1% year-over-year.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.4% from February to March (the fifth consecutive slide) and remain down 30.9% from a peak in June 2006 (up 3.2% year-over-year).
Looking at the monthly statistics, 13 of the 20 metro areas showed a decline in March compared to February. Boston was flat. Eight MSAs posted new index lows in March – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Portland and Tampa. Las Vegas and Phoenix have peak-to-current declines of 56.3 and 51.8%, respectively.
On a more optimistic note, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, San Diego and San Francisco have shown recovery from recent lows of +7.2%, +7.4%, +10.9%, and +16.2%, respectively. San Diego, in particular, has stood out with 11 consecutive months of increasing home prices.
On a month-over-month basis prices fell nominally across the bottom two price tiers but rose for top tier single-family homes in the San Francisco MSA.
The bottom third (under $324,798 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.1% from February to March (up 10.3% YOY); the middle third fell 0.2% from February to March (up 8.9% YOY); and the top third (over $589,259 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.6% from February to March (up 8.2% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are just below September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around May 2002 levels having fallen 37% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.7% from February ’10 to March ’10, up 1.5% on a year-over-year basis and down 31.7% from an December 2005 high.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ First Quarter of 2010 Indicates Some Weakening in Home Prices [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ February Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco Falls Across All Price Tiers [SocketSite]