1461 Sanchez
As previously noted the kitchen of 1461 Sanchez was slightly rearranged and a new Bertazzoni installed, but for the most part we’ll consider it an apples-to-apples pair.
Purchased for $1,630,000 in September 2006, the sale of the single-family Noe home at 1461 Sanchez closed escrow yesterday with a reported contract price of $1,598,000 ($727 per square foot).
Apples-to-apples it’s a net drop of two percent over the past four years (but not to be confused with a two percent drop from any neighborhood “peak“).
Apples To Apples (And Kitchens To Kitchens) For 1461 Sanchez [SocketSite]
Another Market Metric And Food For Thought At The End Of The Year [SocketSite]

20 thoughts on “A Noe Apple (Not Counting The New Red Range In Which To Roast)”
  1. noe has been overvalued for a long time, the seller is lucky he got this price. try getting this price next year.

  2. I’m wondering what crystal ball you folks are viewing, or what you’re smoking, that has you convinced that prices will be lower a year from now.
    You seem pretty damn sure.

  3. Noearch, my comment was flip, but here is what my prediction is based on (these and a couple tokes of my “medicine”:
    Inventory is trending up
    Sales volume is trending lower
    Stock market is doing terribly
    Unemployment is stubbornly high
    Direct govt support programs (read free cash to buyers) are over, although indirect support remains
    Prices remain elevated compared to comparable rents and to incomes ($1.1 million for a little 3/2 in Bernal is ridiculous, although less ridiculous than the $1,250,000 it fetched in 2007)
    Jumbo lending remains tight
    Foreclosures remain at record levels, and the Alt-A, etc. wave that will have a significant impact on SF is just getting started
    Interest rates will rise, albeit slowly.
    I don’t think we’re going to see 20% further reductions in a year. But I don’t see how all these trends lead to anything but further declines, and I’d bet on 5-10%/yr declines for the next few years. All the support has stretched out the decline but it can’t change the ultimate outcome.

  4. Well, perhaps. I am still seeing well off young families moving into my Noe hood and buying..and overbidding..
    It does surprise me somewhat, but it’s still happening.
    And remember, we’re not really building any new houses here in Noe either. There is demand.

  5. sparky-b, what’s the deal with that place? I know it was a full remodel but couldn’t tell if some builder bought it / renovated it / and then sold it (and it seemed to have sold under the radar and all).

  6. I was told that it was a development where sellers agent knew a buyers agent with a client that thought it bit their needs so they go an early look. It was about 3/4 done and the people said don’t show it to anybody else we’ll take it.
    You know your typically market is crumbing scenario.

  7. Doesn’t that set a new high bar for Noe? We are really going to have to see a huge collapse to see the 50% down by 2011 prediction that so many bears on here claimed would happen.

  8. Don’t be too quick to draw conclusions based on one very obscure data point.
    We’re still in the early innings of the game. The extend and pretend phase is still on. Japan RE took 20 years to shed 60% of value.

  9. Don’t be so quick to holler “Japan,” as this house is down 2 points in 4 years. At that rate, 20 years gets you 10.

  10. @anon: it’s only ‘down 2 points in 4 years’ if prices in Noe stopped going up in 2006, they kept going up well into 2008.
    @StrawManJim: Who said Noe would be down 50% by 2011? Can you quote even one ‘bear’? I do remember this ‘bull’ quote…”Scare tactics are dead. San Francisco never really took a price hit and it won’t, either” – flujanonn

  11. They kept going up right up until they crashed? It doesn’t look like that on any chart. It looks like ’06 was peak for both volume + price, but 2007 for price purely. A house like this one might have had the same price in ’07. It might not have, but it might have. I bet you could find 10 of these in the same range. It’s a common Noe house.

  12. Who said Noe would be down 50% by 2011?
    Diemos said everything in SF would lose 50%, s presumably Noe was included in that.

  13. “Case-Schiller below 110 and everything in the city 50% off peak prices by 2011.
    Posted by: diemos at December 20, 2008 5:49 PM”
    “Will we go back to 1996 pricing? As sure as I’m sitting here.
    Posted by: tipster at January 27, 2009 11:47 AM”
    “We have another couple of years … at least …
    of price declines in SF. At the end of those two years we will be closer to 1995 median prices than any snapback above 600k.
    Posted by: Mavo at April 17, 2009 1:13 AM”
    “NVJ –
    I believe that they will fall at least 60%. Hope you’re covered when it happens.
    Posted by: wanker at October 3, 2008 11:59 AM
    “My predicition is that Q2 01 and Q2 10 will be at the same price level
    Posted by: spencer at September 8, 2008 12:12 PM”
    “Yeah, one year from now we’ll probably read:
    Q1: It’s a V-shaped rebound. You’re missing the bottom!
    Q2: the rebound is almost there
    Q3: the rebound should be there by now
    Q4: you guys were wrong in my book. We are only down a mere 35% in “real” SF, not
    the 40-50% you crazies were claiming. The rebound will happen in 2010 for sure.
    Posted by: San FronziScheme at December 15, 2008 5:15 PM”
    I have more, if you really want me to go on…

  14. And I still say it. I’ve still got till jan 1, 2012 for it to come true. 😉
    Durn Ben Bernanke’s black heart! And his quantitative easing too! Screwing up my predictions.

  15. That’s why I set the jan 1, 2012 date several years ago, to remove the ambiguity (and ensure I had the maximum time). You may read “by 2011” as “by the end of 2011”.
    So close. We got all the way down to 118 before this dead cat bounce started. Sigh.

  16. “You may read “by 2011” as “by the end of 2011″.”
    You may, but you’d be incorrect.
    by1    /baɪ/ Show Spelled [bahy] Show IPA preposition, adverb, adjective, noun, plural byes. not later than; at or before: I usually finish work by five o’clock.
    P.S. I don’t really care, I’m just being a PITA.

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