According to the February 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.7% from January ’10 to February ’10, down 38.3% from a peak in May 2006 but up 11.9% year-over-year.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.7% from January to February (the fourth consecutive slide) and remain down 30.7% from a peak in June 2006 (up 1.4% year-over-year).
San Diego was the only market that continued to show improvement in home prices between January and February. All other metros and the two composites showed declines from their January levels, some of these being fairly significant, with 12 of the MSAs falling by at least 1.0% during the month. Six of the MSAs – Charlotte, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – posted new index lows as measured in the current housing cycle where, depending on the market, we saw peaks in 2006 and 2007. The two latest markets to post new index lows, New York and Portland, showed peak-to-February declines of -21% and -23.0%, respectively.
Charlotte and Cleveland have shown seven consecutive months of negative monthly returns. Atlanta, Boston, Denver, New York and Tampa are not far behind, with six consecutive negative prints. Six of the 20 MSAs – Atlanta, Denver, Las Vegas, San Diego, Seattle and Washington DC – showed some improvement in monthly returns compared to the prior month.
On a month-over-month basis, and for the first time since March 2009, prices fell across all three price tiers for single-family homes in the San Francisco MSA.
The bottom third (under $320,889 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.4% from January to February (up 5.3% YOY); the middle third fell 0.3% from January to February (up 6.4% YOY); and the top third (over $584,331 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.5% from January to February (up 2.7% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are just below September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around June 2002 levels having fallen 37% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third slipped back below February 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.6% from January ’10 to February ’10, down 3.0% on a year-over-year basis and down 30.5% from an December 2005 high.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Mixed in February 2010 [standardandpoors.com]
∙ January Case-Shiller Index: Bottom Tier Up, Middle And Top Tiers Fall [SocketSite]