According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco jumped 46.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (499 recorded sales in November ’09 versus 340 sales in November ‘08), down 9.8% compared to the month prior on seasonality. For context, November sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2007 were 682 (2004), 658 (2005), 568 (2006), and 479 (2007) while the average October to November drop was 4.2%.
San Francisco’s median sales price in November was $650,000, up a nominal 0.3% compared to November ’08 ($648,000) but down 5.9% compared to the month prior.
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in November was up 19.5% on a year-over-year basis and down 13.3% from the month prior (6,878 recorded sales in November ’09 versus 5,756 in November ’08 and 7,933 in October ’09), while the recorded median sales price rose 10.6% on a year-over-year basis, down a nominal 0.8% compared to the month prior. Think mix.
Last month’s sales were the highest for a November since 2006 but were still 14.6 percent lower than the November sales average of 8,050 since 1988, when DataQuick’s stats begin. November sales have ranged from a low of 5,127 in 2007 to a high of 11,906 in 2004. On average since 1988, sales have dropped 8.3 percent between October and November.
Sales in the region’s higher-cost counties – Marin, San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo – represented 42.3 percent of November sales, up from 35.0 percent a year ago, when more sales were concentrated in the lower-cost inland areas steeped in foreclosures. Homes selling for more than $500,000 made up 36.5 percent of all transactions last month, up from 31.3 percent a year ago and a low this year of 22.7 percent in January.
At the extremes, Marin recorded a 52.9% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 82 transactions) on a 4.0% drop in median sales price, while Solano recorded flat sales volume (actually, a loss of 1 transaction) and a 4.9% increase in median sales price.
As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed (“sold”) many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
∙ Bay Area home sales and median price top last year again [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In October: Up 33.6% YOY [SocketSite]
San Francisco’s median sales price in November was $650,000, up a nominal 0.3% compared to November ’08 ($699,000)
I don’t understand how a $49K drop in median sales prices translates to a 0.3% nominal uptick. Could somebody enlighten me?
Thanks.
[Editor’s Note: Good catch. That “$699,000” was an artifact of last month’s update, since corrected to $648,000 above (which yields the nominal 0.3% gain). Applogies for the confusion.]
According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco jumped 46.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (499 recorded sales in November ’09 versus 340 sales in November ‘08), down 9.8% compared to the month prior on seasonality. For context, November sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2007 were 682 (2004), 658 (2005), 568 (2006), and 479 (2007) while the average October to November drop was 4.2%.
October = 5 thursdays and fridays, november = 4.
So a bigger drop than past years is only to be expected – and of course the 4.2% above doesn’t include the 2008 fall – only 04 to 07.
Nice to see sales and medians both up YOY, that hasn’t happened for a while!
A 46.8% increase is definitely a significant rebound!!! Well done SF.
[Editor’s Note: The October to November 2008 drop was 17.9%. The last time both sales volume and median increased YOY was July 2007.]
sparky-b: This one’s for you. Don’t know if you’re looking for ‘opportunities’ at this point, but it’s about the same latitude as the Los Palmos site. The home at 205 Cresta Vista Drive (2/1) was purchased for $585k in 2003; it hits the auction block on Dec. 21 with an unpaid balance of $481,296. Cheapest house on the block and due for an upgrade (watch out for the down grade, though, that’s quite a slope).
Looks like it may have been used as an ATM courtesy of Wells Fargo (ought to do wonders for their portfolio of seconds).
I’m a bit surprised that the sales numbers didn’t go up from October to November as people rushed to take advantage of the expiring federal tax credit.
I realize seasonality and the calendar play their usual roles, but it’s almost as if the tax credit had no effect (hard to believe), or there was a downdraft for other reasons (credit, the economy, jobs?) that almost perfectly balanced the effects of the tax credit.
Maybe we see the effects of the tax credits in December?
ebGUY,
Price is low but so is resale there. Can’t make it family friendly(size,yard,rooms), which you would want for the hood.
But keep ’em coming.
on tax credits, who actually believed they would expire and who did they really help at these price points?
I’m pretty sure I’ve said this before, but YOY comparisons should continue to look good in SF RE for a while . we are comparing to Armageddon numbers from last year!
The govt has succeeded thus far in supporting home prices. (I’m not saying they’ve stopped all price drops, just that they are supporting housing).
every winter I say we need to wait until spring to know what’s going on, but especially this year. It will depend in large part on whether or not this “recovery” hits main street and more importantly on whether or not the Fed will extend its purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities (due to expire in March I believe).
Price is low but so is resale there.
They are valued (ha!) at $1million+ a couple of doors down. Perhaps I am ‘misunderestimating'($) the challenge of digging into the slope and putting on an addition. At any rate, Wells appears to be on the first and second, so maybe they’ll raise the opening bid…
ex SF-er wrote:
Since we seem to be prognosticating here, I’ll stick my neck out and go on record as saying that The Fed will stop purchasing MBS’s, because GDP is increasing, and The Fed’s unspoken mandate is to protect asset owners (and not assist wage earners, which is why easing of all types is going to come slowly but firmly to an end even though unemployment is still quite high). Ben Bernanke and William Dudley couldn’t possibly care less about “main street”. This will make it interesting to see what happens if the CMBS market freezes; if it does, then I expect The Fed to start buying (more of?) those.
I’m guessing that the “First-Time Homebuyer Credit” will still get extended past the April 2010 deadline when it’s supposed to end, though.
What I think will be more interesting will be what happens with mortgage interest rates. From the Los Angeles Times:
If mortgage interest rates get substantially above 5%, and stay there for a bit, that’ll suppress sales enough to make an impact.
Tipster, in some ways you have become the most bullish poster on here with some of your predictons…
here you expected a whopping 63% increase in sales YOY (didn’t happen), you also expected medians to rise for the next two years from last month (yes I know they are not prices, and they have fallen so far..) and inventory to stay below 2006 and 2007 levels this year (that hasn’t happened).