According to the October 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 1.2% from September ’09 to October ’09, down 2.6% year-over-year and down 37.8% from a peak in May 2006, but up from a 46.1% fall from peak as recorded in March 2009.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained a nominal 0.1% from September to October and remain down 29.8% from a peak in June 2006 (down 6.4% year-over-year).
“The turn-around in home prices seen in the Spring and Summer has faded with only seven of the 20 cities seeing month-to-month gains, although all 20 continue to show improvements on a year-over-year basis. All in all, this report should be described as flat.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.
“Coming after a series of solid gains, these data are likely to spark worries that home prices are about to take a second dip. Before jumping to conclusions, recognize that the one time that happened at the beginning of the 1980s, Fed policy saw dramatic reversals, which is very different from the stable and consistent Fed policy we have today. Further, sales of existing homes – those included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – have been very strong in recent months, working off the inventories of houses for sale. At the same time, housing starts remain weak, fears that the market will be swamped by a wave of foreclosures are heard and government programs aimed at the housing market will expire in the first half of 2010.”
On a month-over-month basis and having skipped September, San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose across all three price tiers for the fourth time since May 2006.
The bottom third (under $317,792 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.0% from September to October (down 11.9% YOY); the middle third gained 1.9% from September to October (down 3.5% YOY); and the top third (over $591,888 at the time of acquisition) gained 0.8% from September to October (down 8.3% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA remain at June 2000 levels having fallen 58% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around June 2002 levels having fallen 36% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.3% from September ’09 to October ’09, down 9.7% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.6% from an October 2005 high.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Still Improving but at a Moderating Pace [S&P]
∙ September Case-Shiller: Bottom Tiers Up But Flat At Top For SF MSA [SocketSite]
∙ A Sprinter’s Or Marathoner’s Pace? [SocketSite]
∙ Are The Real San Francisco Foreclosures On Their Way? [SocketSite]