November 25, 2009

Warm Thoughts Of A Traditional Thanksgiving Dinner (2009 Edition)

173 Downey Kitchen

Our Thanksgiving time tradition has been thwarted in 2009 by a lack of gorgeous old stoves. So this year it's the (semi) recent reduction (listed for $2,565,000 on 9/17, reduced to $2,398,000 on 10/13) of a renovated "green" kitchen and we call it a day.

Here's to hoping your pantry is plentiful along with your family and friends. Safe travels if you are (traveling). And thanks for plugging in. We'll see you next week.

∙ Listing: 173 Downey (5/3.5) - $2,398,000 [173downeyst.com] [MLS]
Warm Thoughts Of A Traditional Thanksgiving Dinner (2008 Edition) [SocketSite]
Conjuring Up Warm Thoughts Of A Traditional Thanksgiving Dinner [SocketSite]

First Published: November 25, 2009 12:45 PM

Comments from "Plugged In" Readers

Nice house, been on the market a while. Was listed higher and then taken off the market. I still think it's a bit overpriced for the 'hood. Happy Thanksgiving.

Posted by: eddy at November 25, 2009 1:24 PM

The remodel on this place was nicely done. I think the only downside is the low-height bedrooms on the top floor. According to the permit, they raised the house 20 inches for the garage.

Carrying costs are around $6400/mo assuming 20% down on the $1.2M purchase price for a little over 3 years (figure $250K+). The permit claims $415K of work. If this sells for this current asking, I assume they'd make a decent profit.

eddy -- what do you think the price should be?

Permit language [sic]:
REMOVING EXISTING SUNROOM, ADD GROUND & 2 STORY ADDITION OF OFFICE, GARDEN ROOM, SUNROOM, MBR EXTESION, ADD WALL & ROOF DORMERS, LIFT HOUSE 20" TO ADD GARAGE, REBUILE FORNT STEPS FOR NEW HEIGHT , BREING FOUNDATION UP TO SEISMIC CODE, REPLACE HVAC, PLUMBING,K ELECTRICAL , THROUGHTOUT, UPDATE EXISTING

Posted by: sfrenegade at November 25, 2009 2:25 PM

I'm not that savvy in that part of town, but it seems Noe 2008 priced. I think it's gone at $2.1, certainly north of $2M. It's probably the nicest home for sale in the $2.0 to $2.5 range. But it's not the greatest block and clearly that is hurting this home big time.

Posted by: eddy at November 25, 2009 4:07 PM

I've been inside , and it's a nice lace, but for 2.3 I can critique:
The floors are shabby and mismatched all over, and wood floors in the bathrooms aren't practical.
There is pretty much zero back yard.
no view?

2.3 is a high price to pay for what looks to be an unfinished home, green
or not, (clearly the market isn't aying for the green) with no space to run
around outside and no view to enoy

Posted by: Been There at November 25, 2009 4:34 PM

of course there's not a chance in hell that the permit work cost just $415k..everyone knows the game played with DBI on that..

I would confidently say the work cost over twice that..prob close to $900k..for the work described and the quality level.

Posted by: noearch at November 25, 2009 6:21 PM

I was thinking mid-$800's for the work. This isn't priced as Noe circa 2008, that price would be $3.15M. But, this hood didn't get up to Noe anyway.

Posted by: sparky-b at November 25, 2009 6:29 PM

I absolutely love it. Overpriced, yes, but I'm from the Hudson Valley in New York and the interiors really evoke a lot of the colonial revival homes that were around me.

The floors may indeed be mismatched, but apparently they're the original floors - so it's tough to find fault in that. I agree about the lack of outdoor space and the lack of view - especially so at this price. If you're a fan of the neighborhood (as I am) it's an area you'd gladly pay a premium to be in.

Posted by: Fishchum at November 25, 2009 10:53 PM

Using the numbers above

Purchase 1,200
Work 800
Carry 250
Realtor 120
Staging, transfer tax, etc 25
-------
Total 2,395,000

Asking 2,398,000

Profit $3,000 (if it sells at asking, which, based on the comments, seems unlikely)

Not a happy thanksgiving at this home, I'm guessing.

Posted by: tipster at November 25, 2009 11:02 PM

Three years of carry is a long time to flip a single family house. Even with that, $250K carry is pretty high (hopefully, for them).

Posted by: sparky-b at November 26, 2009 8:27 AM

Judging from my experience 800K seems high. I've seen more done for less. (But I'm not the guy who does the build either.) And 250K, from Tipster, obviously isn't worth discussing. The main thing holding this sale back is the lot size, IMO.

Posted by: anonn at November 26, 2009 10:31 AM

"Even with that, $250K carry is pretty high (hopefully, for them)"

"And 250K, from Tipster, obviously isn't worth discussing."

The 250k wasn't from me, it was from SFRenegade, who said 250+, and went unchallenged so I used it.

And what is becoming typical from you, anonn, is a personal attack with no analysis.

First, let's see how close he was, because when I eyeballed it, it looked pretty well within the ballpark of reason:

Interest on a loan @ 5%:
1.2M * 0.05 * 3.1 = 186k

Property tax @ 1.163 =
1.2M *0.01163 *3.1 = 43K

Interest (construction loan @8%) and property tax on the improvement cost, assuming a lump sum in the middle of the carry (for a 1.55 year hold on the 800k), but property tax only on the $415K he claimed:

0.8M *0.08* 1.55 = 99K

0.415*0.01163*1.55= 7K

Total $335K

Hmm, sfrenegade said 250K+, so it looks like he was right, it loos like I was too conservative, and it looks like you were wrong, anonn. The seller has already lost money.

As for the "my experience 800 seems high", we've got an architect saying 900K, a builder saying "mid" 800s and I used 800 exactly. That was pretty conservative based on the posts and the people who were posting.

The guy lost money. Period. No matter how many realtors want to wish it away by using the usual realtor underestimating of expenses, he did.

Sparky, unless my math is wrong, you may want to relook at your expenses, because when I eyeballed it, it looked low, so I ran with that number. I'm a little worried for one of us that it didn't look low to you too. Maybe I'm off?

And @ three years, the developer may have been living there, deducting the payments from their income taxes hoping for a two year $500K exemption. If that's the case, you can deduct about 35% of the 335 to make the carry about 200K.

If that was the case, he's still likely to lose money (based on the estimates for the true selling price) and he won't be able to deduct the loss. Either way he's screwed.

Oh wait, people want me to be more positive in my posts, so let me put that more positively:

I'm positive he's screwed.

If he had been working baking pumpkin pies for $10 per hour (we need a Thanksgiving tie in here), he would have made:

$10 * 2000 hours * 3.1 = $62,000

Subtract about 1/3 for taxes, medicare, etc, and you get $40,000. That would have been the better approach here. We might add in the value of the shelter he got for 3 years, but living in a construction zone would have been no picnic, so in the end he's probably even.

Posted by: tipster at November 26, 2009 11:50 AM

Tipster,
My $250K number was directly tied to my other comment about it being over three years. As you point out, the developer or someone else was probably living there for some time. That's all I was saying. You don't have to worry about me, but thanks. Plus I didn't spend the time to run someone else's numbers. I do spend the time on mine. Also, on your numbers you use a $1.2M loan to get the $186K. At $960K that would be $37K less.
As for the cost, there would be lots of other things to break down (so maybe you and anonn can both be right). There is construction cost which I don't think would be $800K, but then there is the permits and fees, architecture, enginering and all that. These push you over $800K. Also, the construction cost would count the overhead/profit for the contractor. So, maybe he lost money on the flip, but still did a $750K construction job.
Anyway, it was a bad buy. $1.2M for a fixer that won't get you view, yard, and/or awesome hood when your done = Bad call.

Posted by: sparky-b at November 26, 2009 12:11 PM

Your comments are always wrong any more Tipster. They're always exaggerated and wrong, and your Boy Who Cried Wolf act has come to its logical conclusion. But if it makes you happy, fronzigade was wrong with the 250K carry call first.

Posted by: anonn at November 26, 2009 2:22 PM

well, in all fairness I have not been in the house, so my comments rely solely on the photos:
*not a big fan of the mismatched wood floors at all.
*I definitely see problems with wood floors in all the baths..not a good choice. should be mud-set tile.
*upstairs bedrooms are small, low ceilings.
*character of the interiors and kitchen are well done.
* I think sparkyb and me are pretty much right on for the actual hard construction costs..It's very expensive to lift a house up and add all new concrete foundations..
*neighborhood is iffy..not nearly as sunny as Noe.

Posted by: noearch at November 26, 2009 4:55 PM

oh, one more thing:

I think Payton the realtor is hot. just saying.:)

Posted by: noearch at November 26, 2009 4:57 PM

The fridge just does not go with the rest of the kitchen. Stainless steel the avocado green/burnt orange of the future.

Posted by: Rillion at November 27, 2009 9:03 AM

sure it does. goes just fine. look at the range/oven. look at the kitchen faucet.

Posted by: noearch at November 27, 2009 10:36 AM

Yep it matches the other items that people will look at in a few years and have the following conversation:

"ooh stainless steel, remember the 2000’s when everyone was flipping houses and throwing in the same stainless steel appliances thinking it added value."

"Yep, until the house bubble burst and after a few years stainless steel became synonymous with bank owned."

:)

Posted by: Rillion at November 27, 2009 12:44 PM

I don't think the stainless is a "fad". It's making a residential kitchen look more like a commercial kitchens have for decades. And it's also very practical / functional and looks awesome.

Posted by: eddy at November 27, 2009 1:01 PM

I guess everything will be outdated at some point in time. But that doesn't mean I don't like it today!

I think the stainless refrigerator in this house goes great with the chalkboard walls.

Posted by: Bonbon at November 27, 2009 1:18 PM

I think commercial style appliances paired up against old timey kitchen is classic and it has been around a long time, 20 years or more. Consumer-end looking stainless will probably fall out of favor and the "pergraniteel" thing is headed for Harvest Gold status soon enough. Cherry wood cabinetry is hopefully already out.

My brushed-stainless-look fridge from GE, the one that would have been white 15 years ago and brown in the seventies, will probably look okay for its lifespan albeit a little bit dowdy for most of it. It works great though and has extra space for gallons of milk in the door. ;-)

Posted by: kthnxybe at November 27, 2009 2:13 PM

I will add this this is a very good neighborhood - It's cole valley after all.

Posted by: been there at November 27, 2009 3:28 PM

And it's [stainless] also very practical / functional and looks awesome.
I am but a poor plebe with a white LG fridge; can someone help me out? My understanding was that stainless takes fingerprints a lot easier than other styles of appliances. If you have kids and don't have a maid, isn't this look a lot less practical? Also, FWIW, we used to have an fairly standard Amana fridge with a maple panel kit. The kitchen designers did a good job and frequently people would ask "Where's the refrigerator?" as it blended in nicely with the rest of the maple cabinets. When that fridge expired, we tried looking for a standard depth refrigerator that would take the maple panels from the old one. Yeah right... salesmen would just stare at you blankly and then try to sell you a counter depth fridge for $$$$$. This is progress?

Posted by: EBGuy at November 27, 2009 5:12 PM

@ebguy: ok, you brought up some good points. SS appliances are both practical, and yes, can be seen as a bit trendy (upscale). I agree.. but, dont think they will be seen as a fad, or really go out of style.
As for counterdepth, yea, you're gonna pay more for a shallow 24" deep fridge, such as Sub-zero or Bosch. makes sense for some kitchens. I have a SS sub-zero in my kitchen and I just like how it fits flush with the cabinets, saves space and doesnt overpower the room like some of those giant white monsters.

Posted by: noearch at November 28, 2009 11:21 AM

As for counterdepth, yea, you're gonna pay more for a shallow 24" deep fridge, such as Sub-zero or Bosch.
A one thousand dollar premium even on the low end for GE Profile counter depth versus standard. And the counter depth uses more energy to boot (okay, only 6% more). You forgot the main advantage of stainless for a clean, modern look -- no refrigerator magnets.

Posted by: EBGuy at November 28, 2009 1:44 PM

This house is gorgeous...I have been in it! I love that it doesn't feel like a typical Noe Flip house--different neighborhood, for sure. And, part of that feel comes from the flooring! It feels authentic and tasteful!I don't have a problem with the different wood grains! And, yes, it feels more northeast because of it.

My problem with the home: It seems expensive for the neighborhood given there is no view and not much of a backyard. Downey is not a very pretty street. There are some nice homes but, there are some real dumps on the street. On the flip side, the street is quiet.

It is a quick walk to Cole St.and, that is a plus.

I wish this Developer well. More homes should look like this.

I honestly believe the only reason it is sitting is because of the location--it is too nice of a home for the street.

Posted by: Pumpkin at November 29, 2009 8:50 AM

If I were to buy something in the 2 million+ range, I wouldn't buy a place with that many cars parked on the street.

Posted by: bornnraised at November 29, 2009 6:13 PM

i looked up schadenfreude in webster's and it said: see Tipster

Posted by: a nun at November 29, 2009 6:29 PM

Nope. I'm a businessman, and I hate to see businesspeople like this poor seller work hard and lose money. What happened is already done and over with for this poor real estate owner. It doesn't help me in any way when he ends up losing money or even working for free or almost free.

The reason I post is to help make sure that others don't fall into the same trap. People watched "Flip this house" and figured it was a sure bet. It isn't. Even people buying foreclosures on the courthouse steps are losing money.

I'd rather see that effort and hard work go into something productive. It's good to see a house restored, but bad to see, as Sparky so clearly stated, pay the kind of money this person paid, only to watch him essentially hand all of his profit to the person who sold it to him. The current seller should have seen what Sparky saw: "$1.2M for a fixer that won't get you view, yard, and/or awesome hood when your done = Bad call."

Sparky could have bought it, but wisely walked away because the price wasn't right. That's my point in illustrating how much trouble this owner is going to be in. I don't want to see him or her lose money, but the good result from this is everyone will be able to see how much was made or lost and then act accordingly. You see a fixer for that price, you walk away from it. If you can get it for less, go ahead, otherwise, let some other person waste their time on it. That other person will be too busy screwing around with this place when another appropriately priced place comes along, and so your competition is reduced for the profitable projects.

My name is in the dictionary under the term: "smart business", period.

Posted by: tipster at November 29, 2009 10:44 PM

This house is in a great location. Downey St is nice and quiet but it's still an easy walk to Cole St and to many Muni lines (especially if Muni doesn't reroute the 6 Parnassus, which I hope they don't).

I fell in love with the photos of this house, but the price is very high and there really isn't a lot of space in the rooms that I would expect my family would use most. Two years ago that price might work, but not now. I think the remodel job is beautiful.

Posted by: curly at November 30, 2009 9:46 AM

I've got to say that "country kitchens" typically do nothing for me other than give me the Hooterville creeps, but this is one I could live with.

Well done.

Posted by: deshard at November 30, 2009 10:45 AM

The 250k wasn't from me, it was from SFRenegade, who said 250+, and went unchallenged so I used it.

7% for a jumbo 3 years ago isn't unreasonable. So figure $6400/month. Maybe there's a refi this year, so it's cheaper. I'd love for someone to explain how $250K+ for 41 months of carry is wrong.

And what is becoming typical from you, anonn, is a personal attack with no analysis.

Very true. I would appreciate some substance if you're going to make criticisms.


Thanks for the cost estimates, sparky-b. At $mid-800K for the work, the profit here becomes a lot thinner than I thought, if this place sells at asking.

Posted by: sfrenegade at November 30, 2009 11:53 AM

The sale of 173 Downey closed escrow on 4/2/10 with a reported contact price of $2,300,000 ($730 per square foot).

Posted by: SocketSite at April 5, 2010 12:47 PM

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