According to the September 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 1.3% from August ’09 to September ’09, down 7.8% year-over-year and down 38.6% from a peak in May 2006, but up from a 46.1% fall from peak as recorded in March 2009.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained 0.4% from August to September but remain down 29.9% from a peak in June 2006 (down 8.5% year-over-year).
San Francisco and Washington DC have reported six consecutive months of positive returns. Chicago, Minneapolis, San Diego and the two Composites were close behind with five consecutive months of positive returns. In addition to the two Composites, nine of the MSAs reported positive monthly returns for September and four of those — Chicago, Detroit Minneapolis and San Francisco — were greater than +1.0%.
Las Vegas remains the most depressed market. Prices have declined for 37 consecutive months, with a peak-to-trough reading of -55.4%. While Detroit has seen some positive movement in recent months, the market is still at only 73% of its 2000 value. This compares to regions such as Los Angeles, New York and Washington, which have maintained values of 70-80% above their 2000 averages, in spite of the market downturn.
On a month-over-month basis San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose for the bottom two price tiers for the fourth time since May 2006, but fell nominally at the top.
The bottom third (under $309,497 at the time of acquisition) gained 2.3% from August to September (down 15.9% YOY); the middle third gained 1.1% from August to September (down 7.8% YOY); and the top third (over $577,214 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.1% from August to September (down 11.5% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around May 2002 levels having fallen 38% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is almost back to March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA rose 0.8% from August ’09 to September ’09, down 12.2% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.3% from an October 2005 high.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Show Sustained Improvement through Third Quarter of 2009 [S&P]
∙ August S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues MOM Uptick [SocketSite]