November 20, 2009
It's Deja Vu All Over Again (This Time Thanks To The FHA)
Banking on appreciation with little skin in the game ($33,000 on a $963,000 purchase); little in terms of reserves; and counting on income from the upper unit of the Hayes Valley duplex to subsidize low carrying costs thanks to "rock-bottom interest rates."
∙ With F.H.A. Help, Easy Loans in Expensive Areas [New York Times]
∙ US (But Not DA) Prime And FHA Mortgage Defaults Climbing [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Comments (20)
The Grand Plan For A San Francisco "Transit Center District"
The Planning Department's draft Transit Center District Plan for the rectangle bounded by Market, Steuart, Folsom, and mid-block between 3rd and New Montgomery is now online.
The plan's five Core Goals:
1. Build on the General Plan’s Urban Design Element and Downtown Plan, establishing controls, guidelines, and standards to advance existing policies of livability, as well as those that protect the unique qualities of place.
2. Capitalize on major transit investment with appropriate land use in the downtown core, with an eye toward long-term growth considerations.
3. Create a framework for a network of public streets and open spaces that support the transit system, and provides a wide variety of public amenities and a world-class pedestrian experience.
4. Generate financial support for the Transbay Transit Center project, district infrastructure, and other public improvements.
5. Ensure that the Transit Center District is an example of comprehensive environmental sustainability in all regards.
In addition to establishing a 1,000 foot height for the proposed Transbay Tower, the plan raises the height limit for six other sites to exceed the current 550-foot ceiling.
And in addition to neighborhood open spaces either existing or already in the works, the Plan proposes a new half acre public plaza on the corner of Second and Howard/Natoma.
The plaza would serve as a gateway to the Transit Center and City Park as envisoned in the watercolor above. Total budget for the plan as proposed (excluding development costs for the new Transbay Terminal/Transit Center): $567,250,000.
∙ Draft Transit Center District Plan [SFGov]
∙ Transbay Transit Center: Community Insight (And Involvement) [SocketSite]
∙ Transbay Terminal Zoning Presentation And "Urban Form Simulations" [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Comments (32)
San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.9 Percent In October
Preliminary October labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.9%, 8.1% and 9.1% respectively, up 0.2 percentage points in San Francisco and up 0.1 percentage points in Marin and San Mateo.
While the number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 700 (from 43,400 to 44,100) in October, the number of employed fell by 1,600 (from 403,700 to 402,100) as the labor force contracted by 1,000 (from 447,100 to 446,100).
Overall California unemployment increased by 0.3 percentage points to 12.3%.
∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: October 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In September [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Comments (9)
Into The Bernal Apple Cart Falls 82 Ellsworth
The sale of 82 Ellsworth on the South Slope of Bernal Heights closed escrow yesterday with a reported contract price of $855,000 (asking $899,000).
Purchased in April 2005 for $975,000, it's a 12.3% drop in value below its 2005 price for the two-bedroom and two-bath single-family home two blocks above the heart of Cortland.
∙ Apples To Apples (Aside From Any Other Analytics) In Bernal Heights [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 6:15 AM | Comments (38)
November 19, 2009
San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In October: Up 33.6% YOY
According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco jumped 33.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (553 recorded sales in October ’09 versus 414 sales in October ‘08) and rose 3.2% compared to the month prior.
San Francisco's median sales price in October was $690,824, down 1.2% compared to October ’08 ($699,000) but up 6.3% compared to the month prior.
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in October was up 4.2% on a year-over-year basis and up 0.7% from the month prior (7,933 recorded sales in October '09 versus 7,613 in October ’08 and 7,879 in September '09), while the recorded median sales price rose 4.0% on a year-over-year basis, up 6.8% compared to the month prior. Think mix.
Sales in the region’s higher-cost counties – Marin, San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo – represented 42.2 percent of October sales, up from 35.3 percent a year ago, when more sales were concentrated in the lower-cost inland areas rife with deeply discounted foreclosures. Sales over $500,000 made up 36 percent of all sales last month, up from 34.9 percent a year ago and a low this year of 22.7 percent in January.
At the extremes, San Francisco recorded the greatest year-over-year percentage increase in sales volume while Solano recorded a 8.6% year-over-year decrease in sales volume (a loss of 67 transactions) and a 18.8% drop in median sales price.
As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
UPDATE: We assumed it went without saying, but with respect to the magnitude of the year-over-year sales increase, keep in mind that October 2008 was a rather rough month for the markets. Recorded San Francisco county October sales figures over the past six years: 720 (2004), 670 (2005), 573 (2006), 526 (2007), 414 (2008), 553 (2009).
∙ Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In September: Up 17% YOY [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Comments (62)
US (But Not DA) Prime And FHA Mortgage Defaults Climbing
While subprime adjustable-rate foreclosures starts dropped in the third quarter of 2009 (from 5.52 percent to 4.92 percent), both the number and pace of FHA backed and prime fixed-rate mortgage defaults climbed.
One out of every six FHA mortgages was late by at least one payment and 3.32 percent were in foreclosure, the highest for both since at least 1979, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today. The delinquency rate for prime fixed-rate mortgages, considered home loans with the least risk, rose to 5.8 percent and the foreclosure inventory rose to 1.95 percent, the highest since at least 1972.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started was a record 1.42 percent. New foreclosures on prime fixed-rate loans increased to 0.71 percent from 0.67 percent, while FHA foreclosure starts rose to 1.31 percent from 1.15 percent.
From DataQuick today:
Federally-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 25.9 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans [in October]. That was up from 24.9 percent in September, 19 percent a year ago and less than 1 percent two years ago.
And while default rates are climbing, keep in mind money remains historically cheap:
The 30-year rate dropped to 4.83 percent from 4.91 percent, the lowest since May, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, said today in a statement. The average 15-year rate fell to 4.32 percent, the lowest since records began in 1991.
∙ FHA, Prime Mortgage Defaults at Records on Job Losses [Bloomberg]
∙ OMG For The FHA [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall for Third Consecutive Week [Bloomberg]
Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Comments (1)
Two Years And A 46 Percent Drop In Expectations For 2100 Vallejo
Listed in December 2007 for $25,000,000, the asking price for 2001 Vallejo has been reduced a few times since. Now asking $13,500,000 (which includes the adjacent buildable lot), call it an effective 46 percent reduction in list price over the past two years.
As a plugged-in sleepiguy wrote in 2008:
I think the extra lot is a little confusing. This house is Historical with a capital H and I doubt the neighbors nor the Pac Heights Res. Association would support subdividing the lot and putting a building on it. Believe me, even billionaires are scared of the planning commission. It also doesn't help that the house next door has been for sale for well over a year for about 10 million less. Based on the Scott St. sales, I think this house would've sold for 18-20 earlier this year, but I'd wager that right now it's dead in the water.
As a plugged-in eddy added earlier this year:
Honestly, in re-reading my comments and sleepiguy's…I have to think that north of $15M is a stretch at this point. 10 for the house, 5 for the lot.... And that is a big Maybe. The craze of 2007/2008 at this end of the market is gone.
True dat with a capital T. And it's something that shouldn’t have caught any plugged-in readers by surprise. Now about the newest competition in the eight figure realm...
∙ Listing: 2100 Vallejo (5/5.5) - $13,500,000 [MLS]
∙ It Might Not Have A Name, But It’s A Vallejo Mansion Nonetheless [SocketSite]
∙ It’s Time For Another Industry Report Asterisk (2100 Vallejo Edition) [SocketSite]
∙ 2342 Broadway Returns Anew, "Green," And Asking $14,000,000 [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Comments (10)
New Year (And Perhaps Market) Motivations Atop Nob Hill
From the property flyer now making its way around the brokerages for 1170 Sacramento Street #2B by way of a plugged-in tipster: "TENANTS HAVE MOVED---NOW PAINTED AND STAGED! MOTIVATED SELLER! WANTS TO CLOSE BY DEC. 31!"
On the market for the past month asking $1,595,000 (purchased for $1,450,000 in May 2005), will it take more "motivation" than furnishings and paint to grant this holiday wish?
Other 1,961 square foot "B" stack units in the building currently on the MLS: 1170 Sacramento #12B asking $1,950,000 (reduced from $2,200,000); and 1170 Sacramento #14B asking $2,150,000 and which comes with a separate one-bedroom unit that "can be sold to another owner in bldg" (reduced from $2,380,000).
∙ Listing: 1170 Sacramento #2B (2/2.5) - $1,595,000 [1170-sacramento-2b.com] [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1170 Sacramento #12B (2/2.5) - $1,950,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1170 Sacramento #14B (3/3.5) - $2,150,000 [MLS]
Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Comments (1)
A Resale One Joins The Two At Seventy-Four New Montgomery
While the two-bedroom 74 New Montgomery #502 remains available at $945,000 (24% under its un-upgraded purchase price in 2008), a tipster notes a one-bedroom resale (74 New Montgomery #305) has also hit the market asking $485,000 (12% under its purchase price in January 2008).
We’ll assume the shades are drawn to simply show off the upgrade, or for the purposes of photography, not to hide the views.
∙ Listing: 74 New Montgomery #305 (1/1) - $485,000 [MLS]
∙ Overlooking Architecture (And Upgrades) At The Montgomery (#502) [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Comments (7)
November 18, 2009
Sold Together For $9M in '07, Purchased Apart For $6,766,001 In '09
As we wrote two weeks ago:
Still listed on the San Francisco Association of Realtors' MLS last week as an "active listing" despite a plugged-in reader's report that it had actually sold at foreclosure auction two weeks ago, today the MLS listing for 2151 Green Street was...withdrawn.
And if our reader’s source is correct, the buyer at $3,066,001 was...the person who sold it to the foreclosed upon party along with the adjoining empty lot for $9,000,000 in 2007.
Oh, and the listing for said lot now known as 2157 Green Street just went pending (last asking $4,200,000).
The sale of the 2157 Green Street lot has since closed escrow with a reported contract price of $3,700,000, so make that a total purchase price of $6,766,001 for the two District 7 pieces that sold together for $9,000,000 in 2007 prior to the added value of the lot split.
And while our reader was correct with respect to the auction of 2151 Green Street, our sources say the buyer wasn’t the seller in 2007 (but did just buy the lot as well).
Just to be clear, the six-bedroom, five-bath and 6,800 square foot Cow Hollow home which had been "remodeled" and then returned to the market in 2008 asking $10,950,000 (reduced to $7,350,000 in 2009) sold at auction for $3,066,001 four weeks ago.
∙ The 2151 Green Street Scoop: Wait For It… [SocketSite]
∙ Reader Versus Realtor: Did 2151 Green Street Just Sell At Auction? [SocketSite]
∙ But Hey, $550,000 Is Simply A Rounding Error To A Proper Industrialist [SocketSite]
∙ Another District Seven Mansion Heads For Foreclosure (2151 Green) [SocketSite]
∙ The Scoop On 2157 Green Street (Could You See The Foreshadowing?) [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 2:45 PM | Comments (10)
A Rather Modern Listing (But Really Not So "New")
Back on the MLS and on tour "as new," the list price for 297 Cresta Vista Drive is down to $1,290,000. Asking $1,595,000 in June 2008 before being withdrawn that December and then listed again this past May at $1,495,000 before being withdrawn three weeks ago.
Built in 1991 and last sold for $789,000 in May of 1998, it’s now one day on the market for 297 Cresta Vista Drive according to those official industry statistics and market reports. And a sale at $1,290,000 would be another "100% of asking" data point.
UPDATE: As a plugged-in reader adds:
It is a crazy house...but also wonderful in its way. I knew the guy, Bill Deitch, who designed and lived in it initially. He was a San Francisco character who was trained as a structural engineer and worked [as] a residential building contractor. Knowing Bill, it is probably built to withstand the big one.
∙ Listing: 297 Cresta Vista Drive (3/4.5) 3,233 sqft - $1,290,000 [virtual tour] [MLS]
Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Comments (21)
The "Unexpected" Drops Spread To U.S. Residential Construction
"Residential construction in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in October amid concern a homebuyer tax credit would expire [but didn't], illustrating the market’s dependence on government help to sustain a recovery as job losses mount."
∙ U.S. Economy: Homebuilding Drops as End of Tax Credit Loomed [Bloomberg]
∙ Senate Approves First-Time (And Move-Up) Homebuyer Tax Credits [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In September [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Comments (0)
Modern Ito Design Falls Prey To Modern Berkeley Economics
"A shortage of funds has prompted UC Berkeley to abandon its plan to construct a new Berkeley Art Museum and Pacific Film Archive downtown. The building, a distinctive and innovative design by Tokyo architect Toyo Ito estimated to cost $143 million, was to replace the museum's present, seismically endangered quarters on Bancroft Way..."
∙ UC Berkeley must scale back on downtown museum [SFGate]
∙ Across The Bay (But Modern Museum Architecture Is On The Brain) [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Comments (4)
Putting On The Ritz At 44% Under Original List (And $813 Per Square)
Asking $3,747,500 ($1,453/sqft) when it first hit the market two years ago, a plugged-in tipster notes that the three-bedroom and 2,580 square foot Ritz-Carlton Residences #1102 closed escrow on 11/3 with a reported contract price of $2,100,000 ($814/sqft).
It was three months ago we caught the sales office discounting list prices by up to 33 percent, but call it a closing at 44 percent under original asking for 690 Market #1102.
∙ Four More Listings! (And At Least One Reduction At The Ritz) [SocketSite]
∙ Ritz-Carlton Sales Office Pulls An Infinity In An Attempt To Sell Out [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Comments (14)
November 17, 2009
2342 Broadway Returns Anew, "Green," And Asking $14,000,000
It’s not yet officially listed inventory, nor is the address even mentioned on the Sotheby’s site. But a few doors down from 2306 and 2310 Broadway, and across the street from the Party of Five house at 2311 Broadway, lies 2342 Broadway.
Purchased as a total fixer for what tax records would suggest was $5,610,000 in May 2008 (asking just under six million at the time), the Pacific Heights big humongous view home has been completely remade from front to back and bottom to top.
And in addition to the requisite eight figure finishings, solar panels and a rainwater harvesting system could help the home achieve LEED Platinum certification.
Asking $14,000,000. And a tip of the hat to the always plugged-in sleepiguy for the scoop.
∙ Listing: "Luxurious, Sustainable Paradise" (2342 Broadway) - $14,000,000 [Sotheby's]
∙ An Überprime Data Point Closes Escrow Down On Upper Broadway [SocketSite]
∙ The Side Story (Quite Literally) For 2306 Broadway: 2310 Next Door [SocketSite]
∙ A Peek Inside The "Party Of Five" House At 2311 Broadway [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Comments (47)
Rincon Center Towers $110M (And Possibly In Default) Debt For Sale
Two years ago the 320-unit Rincon Center Residential Towers (88 Howard) was sold to New York based Capital Properties for $143 million. The purchase was partially financed with a two-year $110,000,000 note, the terms of which included a possible one-year extension.
The loan matured 6/12/09. The Lender notified the Borrower that it did not satisfy the terms and conditions required for the 12 month extension, and as such the Loan is in default. The Borrower disputes the Lender's claim, believes that it qualifies for the Loan extension and has continued to pay monthly debt service payments (last payment date 11/12/09).
The Borrower has invested over $10,000,000 in the Property since its acquisition in 2007, completing the renovation of 85 of the 244 market rate units, including tasteful upgrades to the flooring, kitchen appliances, countertops, cabinetry, lighting, bathrooms, and fixtures.
And as a plugged-in tipster notes, the lender is now trying to sell the note on the twin 25-story and condo mapped (but currently rental) property via Eastdil Secured.
∙ Rincon Towers: From Apartments, To Condos, To Apartments [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Comments (7)
The Belli Building NOD And Versus A Different B.A.R. (Builders)
"Perhaps the motivation for this statement [("Family has asked for it to be sold in as is condition within the next 30 days")] was the [Notice of Default] filed on September 24. Ms. Belli recently (end of August) sold off two units at 481 Clementina. Evidently, she did not raise enough capital to prevent the mechanics lien on November 4 for the [722-728] Montgomery property. And, of course, the requisite lawsuit by the builders."
∙ Belli’s Barbary Coast (And At One Time) Belle Of A Building [SocketSite]
∙ B.A.R. BUILDERS VS. NANCY HO BELLI [sftc.org]
Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM
SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 11/17/09
Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 4% over the past two weeks and is currently running 25% under 2008 levels on a year-over-year basis (down 30% for single-family homes and down 21% for condos/TICs) but is on par with the average listed inventory levels of 2006/2007.
39% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (versus 43% a year ago) while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned or seeking a short sale is now almost 12%.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 11/02/09 [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Comments (75)
Plugged-In People Should Have Seen This One Coming A Year Away
"A report released Monday by the [San Francisco] controller's office shows that property tax revenues will likely be $35 million less than anticipated in the 2009-10 fiscal year that began July 1. Payroll tax revenues will probably be $24.8 million less than expected..."
∙ S.F. home value drop, jobless drain city budget [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Comments (14)
And On His Little San Francisco Farm He Grew...A Short Sale
As we wrote a year and a half ago:
Purchased for $749,000 in March of 2007, another one of the four little Donald MacDonald "Urban Townhouses" on Hermann (396) didn’t find a buyer at $795,000 (which would have represented annual appreciation of roughly 5%) and is now asking $779,000 (which would represent annual appreciation of closer to 3%).
And while these little homes aren’t everybody’s cup of tea, we do happen to like little spaces, big windows, and wood burning fireplaces (not to mention the neighborhood).
Withdrawn from the market a month later without a sale, 396 Hermann returned to the MLS three months ago asking $749,000. Two weeks later the price was reduced to $729,000. And yesterday the price was dropped to "$599,000" as a "short sale."
As a plugged-in tipster writes: "It's almost like they gave up on figuring out what the market price is -- let the bank and the buyer figure that one out." Of course that also might mean the bank will be figuring out how big a promissory note the seller will be saddled with for the shortfall (which we'll assume the agent has explained).
∙ Listing: 396 Hermann (2/1) - $599,000 [MLS]
∙ And On His Little Urban Farm He Grew A Little Apple... [SocketSite]
∙ Note to Short Sellers (And Their Agents): Read The Fine Print [SocketSite]
Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Comments (44)
