June 29, 2009
SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/29/09
Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco declined 0.7% over the past two weeks (versus an average drop of 2.6% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 9.8% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 0.5% for single-family homes and up 16.9% for condos/TICs) and 24.4% higher than at the same point in 2006.
Just under 39% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least once price reduction (up from just over 32% at the same time last year). And just over 12% of active listings in San Francisco are currently either already bank owned or seeking a short sale.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
First Published: June 29, 2009 9:00 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
Just curious as to what causes the October bump each year. Any ideas?
Posted by: jd at June 29, 2009 10:06 AM
A big one: school year has started. Few families will want to move mid-school-year. That will remove some demand.
Posted by: San FronziScheme at June 29, 2009 10:21 AM
jd...that's easy to answer...folks want to get their homes sold after the summer doldrums and before the holidays. Many people probably intend to list in September, but since things can slip, the actual peak is often in October.
Posted by: curmudgeon at June 29, 2009 10:24 AM
Posted by: jd at June 29, 2009 10:28 AM
Also, the weather is typically better in the fall and most people are back in town after summer holidays are spent elsewhere. Realtors typically save their best listings for spring and fall. You'll rarely see something really prime come on the market after June. Obviously, houses that fail to sell during peak months will be subject to major price cuts.
Posted by: sleepiguy at June 29, 2009 11:08 AM
I wonder if we'll see a bunch on new listings starting the second week of July?
Two weekends ago was Father's Day, yesterday Gay Pride Parade, and next weekend is Fourth of July - three consecutive weekends that are not ideal for bringing a new house to market.
I've been told by realtor friends that many homes get pulled from the market starting in August (which matches 2006-2008 trends above) because that's the month most people vacation, and there just isn't enough buyer demand to risk a property becoming stale.
Posted by: DataDude at June 29, 2009 12:25 PM
There does seem to be a slow down in new listings. I have been Redfin'ing religiously for a few months now looking for a place in SF, and it is like someone has turned the valve down to a slow leak.
Posted by: jd at June 29, 2009 4:50 PM
"Realtors typically save their best listings for spring and fall."
PLEASE. Realtors respond to their clients demands. When someone wants to sell a house, the realtor lists it. Or the client pics a different realtor.
When I unloaded my hovel in 2007, we did take the winter holiday season off (at my realtor's advice). The theory was that the market pops in the spring, and it is better to have a "new" listing.
Posted by: Jeff at June 29, 2009 5:55 PM
come on, listings can't go stale - they just re-list the darn thing again with 1 D.O.M. anyway, the idea of a listing going "stale", although it might have real implications in reality, is kind of silly. to me, a listing is the same whether it's been on the market 1 day or 100 days, given the same property at the same price.
also i think it'd be foolish for a homeowner to wait a few months for a better "season" to kick in, since if everyone did that, it'd only increase supply at the time that you think is a good time to sell. plus, there are buyers 365 days of the year so there are always shoppers.
Posted by: condoshopper at June 29, 2009 7:53 PM
"a listing is the same whether it's been on the market 1 day or 100 days"
Not at all. When something has been sitting for 100 days it sends a very clear message. Namely, "Nobody else thinks it's worth this price." By refreshing the listing you take away that message.
Posted by: diemos at June 29, 2009 9:09 PM
The editor just posted a bunch of listings that expired without a sale at their recent wishing prices. Anyone still thinking the "drop" in inventory is a sign of market strength?
Posted by: Legacy Dude at July 1, 2009 1:40 PM
That same thing was happening this time last year too.
Posted by: anon at July 1, 2009 1:44 PM