According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 16.0% on a year-over-year basis last month (498 recorded sales in May ’09 versus 593 sales in May ‘08) but rose 23.9% compared to the month prior. The difference between recorded and listed sales activity speaks to a spike in unlisted closings, up 46% YOY and generally new construction or bank-owned sales that we’ll once again characterize as being driven by discounting.
San Francisco continued to experience the sharpest year-over-year decline in sales volume of any Bay Area county in May with Marin the only other county recording a decline (-2.7%). San Francisco’s median sales price in May was $634,000, down 19.7% compared to May ’08 ($790,000) but up a nominal 0.9% compared to the month prior.
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in May was up 19.8% on a year-over-year basis and up 4.3% from the month prior (7,447 recorded sales in May ’09 versus 6,216 in May ’08 and 7,139 in April ’09), while the recorded median sales price fell 33.9% on a year-over-year basis, up 12.3% compared to the month prior (the second uptick in 18 months).
Last month 42.1 percent of all homes resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months, down from 46.4 percent in April and the lowest since the figure was 41.6 percent last September. A year ago the percentage was 27.7 percent, while the peak was 52.0 percent this February. By county, foreclosure resales ranged last month from 7.7 percent of all resales in San Francisco to 65.1 percent in Solano.
The use of government-insured FHA loans – a common choice among first-time buyers – represented a 24.5 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans in May, down slightly from a record of 26.0 percent in April but up from 7.3 percent a year ago.
At the extremes, Solano recorded a 51.8% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 241 transactions) on a 36.8% drop in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 40.5% year-over-year increase in sales volume on a 39.9% drop in median sales price.
As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed (“sold”) many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
∙ Uptick in Bay Area home sales and median price [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In April: Down 33.6% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In May: Down 37% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ Infinity Sales Update: New Contracts Up But Driven By Discounts [SocketSite]
Huh? Just last week, there was a posting (on this site) saying sales were down 37%. I’m not saying these DQ numbers are strong results, but it’s a far cry from down almost 40%.
[Editor’s Note: It’s important to understand the difference between recorded and listed sales: “The difference between recorded and listed sales activity speaks to a spike in unlisted closings, up 46% YOY and generally new construction or bank-owned sales that we’ll once again characterize as being driven by discounting.”]
Same old SF story: sales down yoy + median price down yoy = more price declines ahead.
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Marin now has a lower median than SF (I think NVJ alluded to that possibility a few months ago?). There seems to be a little more push towards reaching equilibrium pricing lately up here in Marin – but just a little 🙂 There’s that $1.9M Tiburon property I mentioned a week or so ago that sold in 2000 for $2.4M, and now we are starting to see some movement in areas that were formerly considered very desirable. Here’s a laughable one, listed for $1.275M, last real sale was for $2M in 2004.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tiburon/Undisclosed-address-94920/home/924679
36% under the 2004 price and it’s not sold yet! (it’s in the paradise cay area of Tiburon, and there are a number of foreclosures there now). I hope not too many suckers got their cash caught up in a house that usd that 2004 sale as a “comp”!
Here’s another recent May closing in Tiburon that will be in those DQ sales data for Marin in May:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tiburon/669-Hawthorne-Dr-94920/home/1291487
From $2.9M aale in 2007 to $2.475M sale in May 2009, down 15% with about $550-600K in money heaven on that one.
As anonn wrote in the Infinity post today, “Let us watch and wait” (post was deleted by the editor). I couldn’t have said it better myself. Smart renters who are paying less than half the carrying cost on SFRs are certainly watching and waiting, and enjoying the show very much. Get back to us in a year or two; we’ll be waiting right up here, filing our claws… (I can’t take credit for that great line, saw it in a blog comment somewhere)
Correction on that $1.9M Tiburon sale I referenced above – it sold for $2.45M (not $2.4M) in 2001 (not 2000), and its $1.9M May 2009 sale should be in the $620K median for Marin as it just closed:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tiburon/11-Turtle-Rock-Ct-94920/home/1345019
OK ex SF-er, your May numbers are out. What’s your take? I’ve been telling all my friends that some guy on the internet said we had to wait until the May numbers came out.
May numbers are much better just like I said they’d be. Also, separating condos from SFRs, by neighborhood, would be both helpful and eye opening.
Any chance of a seasonality update?
I think there wasn’t one last month either. Would be good to see the comparison now, with the extra 2 months to cover the whole of spring – just leaving it at Feb and March doesn’t really cover the whole story.
“Also, separating condos from SFRs, by neighborhood, would be both helpful and eye opening.”
Yes, this would be quite interesting to see the two groups separated. Unfortunately dataquick does not seem to publish that data separately.
Slightly informative stats are the zip code oriented stats published in the Chron : http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SF-Chronicle-Charts/ZIPSFC.aspx Here you can compare SFH-heavy zips with condo-heavy zips though this analysis isn’t entirely clean.
What is everyone’s take on the spring bounce given the latest global warming data? My models show Distric 7’s microclimate change is gunna really help out sales there, in the mid-long term future.
The difference between recorded and listed sales activity speaks to a spike in unlisted closings, up 46% YOY and generally new construction or bank-owned sales
is this true, though – for bank-owned sales?
foreclosure resales were 7.7% this month – about where we were a year ago I think, and certainly way down from 5 or 6 months ago where I think it got as high as 15 or 16%.
People have been listening. If you lower the prices, buyers will come back. I am surprised at the price action (not much Oomph for a taxpayer-funded rebound), though details on the mix would be invaluable for SF.
Now is this a V-shaped rebound? I’d say it’s a Ww recovery. Big swings at first then smaller bounces. A bit like an L-shaped reaction with smaller spikes whenever a Trillion is thrown into the game.
From May 2007 – May 2008, San Fran median sales prices fell 5%.
From May 2008 – May 2009, median sales prices fell 20%.
The rate at which prices are falling is accelerating. Which raises the question: how much will prices fall between May 2009 – May 2010?
Does anybody know how many San Francisco homes should be in foreclosure but aren’t due to either federal or state mandated suspensions? And any idea when these grace periods will lift?
Depending upon how many homes are in suspension limbo right now, and when this period expires, a wave of new distressed listings will certainly add to the downward momentum on prices.
OK ex SF-er, your May numbers are out. What’s your take? I’ve been telling all my friends that some guy on the internet said we had to wait until the May numbers came out.
ROFL. Clearly the numbers show that there is still substantial weakness (and perhaps even further deterioration) in the SF RE market. this is what many have suspected (including me) for some time.
My “wait until spring” mantra is only because I feel that winter/spring sales volumes are just too small to be statistically significant (due to small sample size). I try not to overweight statistically insignificant data into my analysis.
we are now in peak homebuying season and it is clear that significant pressure continues, and the data set is now large enough to be statistically significant. Inventory is up YOY, sales are down YOY and median prices are down YOY. (remembering that much of the median price chagne is due to mix).
I never use month on month data as it is affected by seasonality.
clearly, SF prices are still too high and must continue their downward adjustment (inventory is climbing and sales are falling). You can see how lower prices really helped transaction volumes in outlying areas. Those areas will of course continue to put pressure on the city proper.
LMRIM, don’t you mean filing your claws? Or perhaps you meant filling your craws?