March 17, 2009
4214 26th Street: A Nicely Remodeled Noe Valley Apple On The Tree
We’re digging the decks and all the access to the outdoors of this nicely remodeled Noe Valley home. Oh, and the sweet master suite (we have a thing for spacious showers).
Purchased fully remodeled for $1,553,000 in June of 2007, 4214 26th Street was listed four days ago for $1,499,000. As always, if you’re not on record with your own forecast of where it sells, don’t bother to criticizing those who were when it does.
First Published: March 17, 2009 9:00 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
Wow, real estate is getting to be a great way to lose money.
But I guess we are in a deflationary environment [PPI up today thought.], so that makes sense no?
Posted by: jessep at March 17, 2009 9:17 AM
Seems like a lot of house, in a pretty good area for a reasonable price. I'm sort of surprised this sold in 2007 for $1.553 (which screams desperate buyer in a bidding war trying to eek out other buyers with that extra 3k on top of $1.55 :). Perhaps it's smaller than it appears, but a remodeled SFH in Prime D5K for under $1.5 is still within reason for even today's market. There are actually quite a few higher end D5 properties in escrow; including the corner brown shingled home featured on SS recently.
Nevertheless, I still contend that prices will drop and I guess if this sells for asking or below we'll have more proof of this fact. Still too early to buy if you can wait.
Posted by: eddy at March 17, 2009 9:22 AM
$1.5M seems reasonable for that little house? Why? Because someone else might one day pay that much to take it off your hands?
I'm genuinely interested. When prices were rising it made sense (the more you paid, the more you earned through appreciation).
But now that prices are obviously falling? Please explain because I am having a hard time with this.
Posted by: Jimmy (No Longer Bitter) at March 17, 2009 9:29 AM
Jimmy, we have "obviously" turned the corner.
Where have you been?!
Posted by: jessep at March 17, 2009 9:31 AM
Posted by: flaneur at March 17, 2009 9:34 AM
Well I'm prepping a house for sale that was bought in 2003, and now we'd like to get a 2004 price (not that we need to sell but I think its a good idea).
Its more work than you'd think. Somehow I missed the market rebound when looking at all the comps and short sales in my neighborhood...
Posted by: Jimmy (No Longer Bitter) at March 17, 2009 9:35 AM
BTW: It never ceases to amaze me how little curb appeal or exterior thought is part of these Noe/Mission/ SFHs.
If you would show this exterior photo, to someone around the country and ask them what it was worth, you would never see 1.5 M. Not even close.
Posted by: jessep at March 17, 2009 9:48 AM
Heh. I would guess $150k ... but if I factored in incomes, more like $400k. $800k if you assumed everyone was dual-income and housing was in short supply (which it is not -- look at the huge number of available rentals in the city).
Anyway, I continue to be amazed. (But I am easily excitable).
Posted by: Jimmy (No Longer Bitter) at March 17, 2009 9:52 AM
@ jessep who sez, "If you would show this exterior photo, to someone around the country and ask them what it was worth, you would never see 1.5 M. Not even close." Yes, but who wants to live "around the country" when they can live here?
Posted by: Oceangoer at March 17, 2009 9:52 AM
Bought in 11/01 for 599k (pre remodel, presumably), which was already a 32% premium over a 1999 sale (451k).
The 07 sale was pretty awesome! Very gutsy, and I guarantee I did not have the guts to buy in nov 01, at a premium to 1999 prices (assuming all that data is correct). I bet that person is posting anonymously on a blog about how awesome he/she is now, though :)
Current oweners are paying 18.6k/year in property taxes. Wow. I never could believe the premium people pay to live in Noe.
It's a nice house, but it won't lure urban fetishists since it's too far from J Church and you'll probably need an Evil Car to shop in Diamond heights :)
Posted by: dub dub at March 17, 2009 9:54 AM
It never ceases to amaze me how little curb appeal or exterior thought is part of these Noe/Mission/ SFHs.
I agree, jessep. I used to ride my bike once in a while through parts of Noe, and I was always amazed at how - well - crappy the whole place looked, especially in comparison with the neighborhoods a bit more to the west like Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park, Mt. Davidson, etc. (although most of Glen Park and Sunnyside look just as bad). I guess I just didn't see the nice parts :)
Speaking about no curb appeal, take a look at this place for sale just across the street, for $950K (already reduced once and 55 DOM):
Call me crazy, but I sort of like the interior details of that 4207 26th place (even the bathrooms, assuming they're functional), just judging from the pictures. Just how much would it cost to rectify that facade?
Posted by: LMRiM at March 17, 2009 9:58 AM
^^^ Oh, look what I did: "oweners" for owners. Awesome and unintentional, unfortunately :)
Posted by: dub dub at March 17, 2009 10:01 AM
"Call me crazy, but I sort of like the interior details of that 4207 26th place (even the bathrooms, assuming they're functional), just judging from the pictures. Just how much would it cost to rectify that facade?"
1. A lot.
2. As a renter, your ROI would be awful.
Posted by: amused at March 17, 2009 10:08 AM
Jess-jim: one could argue that you get even less in manhattan, Tokyo, Singapore, etc. It's all relative to the microarea and people tend to bond and nest in areas they feel they belong (or aspire) to be in. I guess human beings are just that way, even highly analytical ones :)
Posted by: 45yo hipster at March 17, 2009 10:19 AM
I do not think when people think of Manhattan, Tokyo, or Singapore, that this house REMOTELY comes to mind.
Posted by: jessep at March 17, 2009 10:32 AM
Hey no forecasts so far :) I'll start... sells for less than $1.4M or gets withdrawn... Noe is toast.
Or they can follow this recipe:
Include in purchase: PROPERTY TAXES PAID for first half of the year, 42 LCD TV over fireplace, BOSE spkr system, Plasma TV-front bedroom, ,deck and patio furniture.
Oh, and reduce the asking by $5k to $1,494,000.
Full disclosure: I am copying the recipe from this apparent apple-in-making a couple blocks away:
Posted by: chuckie at March 17, 2009 10:41 AM
I cannot comment on price (good, bad, or otherwise) because I don't have enough knowledge in that area. But I have to comment on the look of this. I love this home. Inside and out. I love the simple exterior view. Clean, a little green where possible. Big windows. And I love the interior. I specially love that MBR.
Posted by: HonuTurtle at March 17, 2009 10:50 AM
The house next door 4216 26th St. is contingent (show) with a list price of $1.16M. It's a 4/2 that needs work but has more potential than 4214. There's at least a few other houses in Noe that will sell for less than the last sale, if at all.
469 Clipper, 76 Jersey, 4545 25th, 826 Duncan, 3963 22nd, 3730 26th, 414 27th, 1424 Sanchez, 1504 Sanchez, 1470 Noe, and 601 Grand View.
Posted by: unearthly at March 17, 2009 10:58 AM
Heres a prediction, comparable houses in the neighborhood lower $700's mid next year, it was only $600k 8 years ago at the beginning of the bubble.
Posted by: deflationjunkie at March 17, 2009 10:59 AM
I love the remodel ... but have a hard time believing they'll get near the asking. My bet is $1.2 million (around $650 a sqft)
Posted by: Garrett in SF at March 17, 2009 11:10 AM
I don't agree with chuckie's "Noe is toast" comment.
Noe's high end market, which qualifies as 1.5mil and above from my analysis, is toast, and it may not rebound for 5-10 years.
But Noe as an area is still considered desirable, and homes are still moving. In the first two months of 2009, almost twice as many home sold in Noe as any other neighborhood in the city. From Jan. 1st, 2009 through March 6th '09, 30 homes sold. The next closest was Portero with 17, followed by Excelsior at 13. If you want to see all the numbers, view this blog post: http://insidesfrealestate.com/2009/03/06/wheres-the-action-in-09/#more-1857
Yes, volume is down everywhere. Yes, we may be entering a decade of stagflation a la Japan. And yes, people still want to move to Noe, despite its blue collar 1890s -1910s facades and lack of appreciation from Satchel and our editor.
[Editor's Note: Lack of appreciation? Quite the contrary (on our part, not the market's), but that doesn't mean we'll stick our heads in the sand with regard to trends (in Noe or elsewhere). More on that point tomorrow.]
Posted by: auden at March 17, 2009 11:34 AM
I'm not going to comment on pricing or value but there are a lot of haters of Noe out there. Honestly the market has spoken and it is clear that NV is considered by buyers as very desirable. It's time to move on...
Posted by: Willow at March 17, 2009 11:49 AM
Yes, we may be entering a decade of stagflation a la Japan.
I don't want to quibble about terminology, but I sort of agree that the Japan path is the most likely outcome for the US. Technically, Japan has undergone almost two decades of extremely subpar-growth (relative to previous trend), with roughly flat to slightly declining CPI-type price inflation, and severe asset deflation. They have enjoyed extremely low interest rates during (almost) the whole period. Definitely not "stagflation".
Japan's experience (so far) has been very different from the US experience of stagflation in the early-to-mid-70s through early 1980s, which was characterized by somehwhat lower than trend real growth (the "stag" part) and rising CPI inflation and trend rising interest rates.
If we go down the Japan path, it's worth keeping in mind that real estate prices fell 60-80% from peak, even at those low interest rates and a CPI inflation that really never went negative for any sustained period of time (in the early stages of the bust, for example, CPI inflation in Japan was 4%+ and I don't think it was until 4 or 5 years into it - 93 or 94, that price inflation went 0% or even negative).
Posted by: LMRiM at March 17, 2009 12:01 PM
I count 9 SFR's closed/recorded in Noe since the beginning of 2009, one of which was a foreclosure. Two were sold for over $1.5M, 5 were between $1M-$1.5M, the rest below.
There are currently 44 SFR's available in Noe.
Posted by: unearthly at March 17, 2009 12:06 PM
33 of the 44 have a DOM of less than 70 meaning they were first listed (or re-listed) in 2009.
Posted by: unearthly at March 17, 2009 12:13 PM
unearthly, your data would indicate about a 10 months of inventory.
DOM is low mostly a manipulated number. A quick browse of the listing histories here on Redfin makes that apparent. Every other house seems to be languishing with multiple re-listings.
Posted by: chuckie at March 17, 2009 12:31 PM
It could sell for 1.295M, but it will be withdrawn.
Posted by: dogboy at March 17, 2009 12:31 PM
Willow: haters? eh? You can like/love the neighborhood and still not want to pay $10k/mo to live there in a small house with limited curb appeal.
Posted by: Jimmy (No Longer Bitter) at March 17, 2009 12:34 PM
If this home gets 1.2 (based on the house next door and Garrett's bet), it means they lose $350K, about 20%, in under 2 years.
$15K per month went poof, in addition to the property taxes and mortgage payments. Something north of $600 per day.
Why is it that people buy because they get "tired of throwing money away on rent" but you never hear how people "threw money away on non-rent"? That's a lot of dough to have flushed down the toilet!
Posted by: tipster at March 17, 2009 12:37 PM
I don't know NV - or the properties - as well as many posters. However, from long experience in asset markets, I understand "sucker psychology" in declining markets.
Using behavioral psychology principles alone, I'd price this at ~$1.3M, and I bet you'd get a knifecatcher who will bid just over $1.4M, thinking it's a steal at a little under 10% under its previous selling price. 10% is a nice round number. Abd after all, the realtors are all over the place talking about 5-10% drops for "desirable" properties (no more, even though obviously medians, Case Shiller, etc. are all down more), and every sucker thinks the prop he is bidding on is "desirable". I really think this is the sort of strategy that should be employed in these sorts of markets (obviously, someone who knows the micro market could refine the "starting bid" price to maximize final sales price).
I suspect a little of that psychology was at work in the "42 offer miracle house" in Excelsior.
Posted by: LMRiM at March 17, 2009 12:40 PM
I remember walking through this place, back at the last sale. Thought it was extremely well done.
Don't know what they'll get but I'll guess: at least $1.45M. It's SFH...it's nice layout..great decks..parking..good area.
Posted by: DanRH at March 17, 2009 12:49 PM
haven't seen it in person, which, of course, makes a huge difference
but, based on the pics and the specs, i'm going with 1.425 million. At 1.2, I know people who are looking who would probably try to grab it, so my guess is it goes much higher.
(1.4 offer, 1.45 counter, 1.425 deal).
Has there been depreciation, even in Noe? No doubt. Has it made it affordable, even to those of us with 300k+ income. Nope.
There lies the (my?) unending frustration with even the new imploding version of the SF RE market.
It is still way to expensive.
Posted by: polip at March 17, 2009 12:55 PM
and don't forget tha noe apple 76 Homestead just hit, with an ask of $1.795 or $642/ft², compared to the last sale of $1.4 in 2006..
Posted by: Geo at March 17, 2009 12:57 PM
Jimmy: I completely agree with you. I'm not addressing the merits of this particular home. My comment is directed at the usual comments that are on SS whenever a NV property is featured. (I.e. Noe is so overpriced, Noe is surburban, Noe houses have no curb appeal, Noe was once a working class neigbhorhood, Noe does not compare to PH, Noe is toast when the Google millionaires loose their jobs etc.) People have choices, and a lot of buyers, despite all the (real or perceived) negatives have decided that NV is a pretty cool place to live.
Posted by: Willow at March 17, 2009 12:58 PM
$ 1.375 m.
Posted by: sanfrantim at March 17, 2009 1:50 PM
Willow, I don't know if any of those things are true but curb appeal...they all depend on marketing and perception.
But if I took that top photo, went to Glendale,AZ and asked Joe Shmoe what he'd pay to live there...you wouldn't like the answers you'd get...
Now that I think about it...maybe that's the San Francisco premium...discrepancy between selling price and rural photograph price.
Posted by: jessep at March 17, 2009 1:51 PM
This should sell for $1.295 MIL or over fairly quickly - say 60 days.
Posted by: Louis at March 17, 2009 1:51 PM
$1-$1.2M. Looking at a similar sized property in Russian Hill with the same asking.
Posted by: homeshopper at March 17, 2009 1:52 PM
deck will be shady most of year, and cold. it's northfacing.
kitchen is small.not a lot of workspace.
southfacing yards do command more price than north facing ones.
Posted by: noearch at March 17, 2009 1:55 PM
I have tried both north and south facing houses 2 and 3 blocks away, and I'll second your comment. When we were in the south facing yard house we were on the deck all the time, whereas with the house on the other side it was almost like winter all year long, plus you got your backyard neighbors taunting you with their tan and short sleeves.
Posted by: San FronziScheme at March 17, 2009 2:09 PM
homeshopper...please please tell us where you're finding a SFH, with similar look/feel, in Russian Hill, for only $1-1.2M?
About a month ago, I did see a nice townhome in RH on Hyde/Filbert (not SFH, townhome), that was 2/2 and very nice. Listed for just over $1M...sold (in this market) for $1.3M.
Posted by: DanRH at March 17, 2009 2:32 PM
homeshopper said "this asking price", and there is a listing for about $1.5M in russian hill. However, it is actually 2 units from the description. Square footage is the about the same as well. Find it @ sfarmls.com
Posted by: sparky-c at March 17, 2009 2:52 PM
"Just how much would it cost to rectify that facade?"
A new coat of paint would be a good start. It would look better if it were a dark tan - like the one above the bed in the bedroom pic.
Posted by: flaneur at March 17, 2009 3:29 PM
I've been through this house and the 'fred flinstone/someone's grandma with dementia used to live here house' across the street. My guess is 1.365 million for this one, and 830k for Fred's place. Lmrim, you want Fred's house, you can have it! I do not think you will have much competition.
SS editor--- There is a big difference between sticking one's head in the sand and selecting properties that are not representative of Noe Valley properties as a whole -- and then using them to exemplify the state of the Noe Valley real estate market. You picked two poor samples back-to-back to highlight (An auction of a studio with horrific curb appeal on an undesirable fringe street, followed by another home that some Missionites might argue is part of their neighborhood over NV.)
4214 26th Street is a better NV representation. Thank you for highlighting it. This is a sample that people looking in NV can actually use.
Posted by: Auden at March 17, 2009 4:18 PM
Price will depend on how much someone wants a turnkey remodel. Look at another similar 50's style home on the 1500 block of Diamond, better view, better street, doesn't have a garrish purple home three doors up.
However the Diamond Street property is stuck in 1963 (save the 1975ish hottub on the plywood deck).
That home is listed for around $995k. It would take $400k and 6-9 months to get it into the condition of this home, so it may be worth it.
But I would guess $1.3.
Posted by: Jimmy C at March 17, 2009 4:22 PM
ah..homeshopper is saying this will go for $1M-1.2M..gotcha.
and then separately he/she iss looking at a similar sized property in RH for similar asking ($1.5M).
thanks for clarifying, my bad.
Posted by: DanRH at March 17, 2009 4:29 PM
$1.5MM is still too much.
We're waiting for a 'move in condition' 3/2 SFH in D5 to drop to about 800K. We'll take the plunge then. Until then - renting in Forest Hill is the best option for us !
Posted by: Lurker at March 17, 2009 5:36 PM
I looked at the Barney Rubble house, aka Auden's Fred Flintstone house. The kitchen wasn't quite my style, but overall I liked the inside. I'm partial to 1930's era houses, though. There's a full height basement, so there is room to grow downstairs. I have no idea how much it costs to fix the facade; depends I'm sure on what's underneath.
I don't think 4216 26th st is a good comp for 4214 26th. 4216 has a funny facade due to an 80's expansion. It also needs a total kitchen overhaul.
No guesses for this sale price. Too much is sitting, not enough recent comps! But I'm with Polip, Noe is still too dang expensive.
Posted by: RenterAgain at March 17, 2009 6:49 PM
I don't think 4216 26th st is a good comp for 4214 26th. 4216 has a funny facade due to an 80's expansion. It also needs a total kitchen overhaul.
OTOH 4216 is a two story SFR with expansion potential in the basement. I'd rather spend the difference ($350k) on updating and upgrading 4216. The final envelope would dwarf 4214; plus you get what you want.
Posted by: unearthly at March 17, 2009 7:22 PM
Lurker - unless D5 stretches into Daly City, you are SOL.
Posted by: Jimmy C at March 17, 2009 8:27 PM
Didn't have much luck finding SFHs nearby in the REO pipeline. However did come across a couple of duplexes that soon will be hitting the market:
1562-64 Church St (bought 9/2006 for $1.15 million, foreclosed for $935k). Around $30k worth of remodeling.
273 28 St (bought 8/2004 for $1 million, 100% Countrywide financing, foreclosed for $899k). Permitted $300k of work --not sure if it was completed.
Don't these duplexes practically convert themselves to condos?
There has got to be an easier way... I use Trulia for the general location, Zillow to triangulate the address and PropertyShark for the details. That's what you get... for free.
Posted by: EBGuy at March 18, 2009 12:07 AM
SF Chronicle online now publishes all local foreclosures by address so if you know the general location from Trulia you can go to sfgate.com and check for exact address. The database seems to be updated very often. Or buy a subscription to RealtyTrac.
Posted by: anono at March 18, 2009 8:06 AM
@Jimmy C - We'll see how events unfold ...
A year ago people were spouting a whole lot of nonsense about how SF was special etc etc. I have no desire to bring up the oft-beaten dead horse.
I love my city and don't want to be a negative sod, but home prices do need to be more in line with rental costs.
Posted by: Lurker at March 18, 2009 10:39 AM
does anyone know the contractor for the remodel? it looks really well done.
Posted by: steve at March 18, 2009 10:40 AM
Quickly scrolling through this thread, those are the forecasts. Not one person expects it to sell over asking!
It seems to me that an application/database can be put together to track the apples and forecasts on the properties featured on SS. I would think that with a sufficiently large # of apples/ forecasts, one could end up with a CSI like index for SF (as opposed to SF MSA). And with futures prices forecasts based on reader expectations.
I would love to hear if anyone thinks a useful application can be put together. Or will it be more a case of garbage in, garbage out?
Posted by: chuckie at March 18, 2009 12:14 PM
This is a beautiful home, but has anyone seen 525 Arkansas? For the price I like that one better. Just my opinion.
Posted by: joe bradford at March 18, 2009 12:38 PM
525 arkansas is better, but people like Noe better
so I think both will go within 5% of asking
Posted by: enonymous at March 18, 2009 12:45 PM
I would like to see a Socketsite guess/prediction database too. It would be a Virtual LOL Machine TM. It could also potentially bring a tiny smidgen of accountability to some posters who sorely lack that necessary quality. (For the record this one will sell within five percent of list price. Its lack of 3brs on one floor will keep it from getting asking.)
Posted by: anonn at March 18, 2009 12:58 PM
Such a "database" could be easily implemented via a Google Docs spreadsheet. So anonn, if you are willing you could set up and maintain said LOL machine and refer to it as history unfolds.
It would be kinda cool to see how each forecaster here fares on their predictions. As a spreadsheet you could compute each forecaster's variance from reality.
Posted by: The Milkshake of Despair at March 18, 2009 2:19 PM
For a database/application like this, IMO the main uses will be to primarily identify and track apples and secondly, if sufficient numbers of apples are available, to produce a CSI like index for the city of San Francisco based on a methododlogy similar to CS's.
I think the hard part is identifying apples and making and inputting forcasts/predictions when listings come on the MLS. The key would be if SS community can handle this in some way via an online "game like" application.
A spreadsheet will quite likely be inadequate for the job. But seems to me it will be easy enough to write a little program and provide for a real database.
Well, I guess the question is if a sufficiently compelling game like environment can be built around real estate in SF, if sufficiently large number of people can become addicted to it and if meaningful trends can be deduced and useful predictions can be made from it.
Posted by: chuckie at March 18, 2009 5:01 PM
It might drive traffic to the site, too, chuckie. I'd guess that some talented tech guy (that's definitely not me :) ) could pair up with the editor.
It would probably be too unwieldy to address all SF. I'd suggest that we focus only on The Real SF (using anonn's and paco's criteria, of course ;)) to start.
Posted by: LMRiM at March 18, 2009 6:10 PM
The "Barney Rubble/Fred Flintstone" house across the street from 4214 26th Street just cut its asking price to $899K (originally $998K):
Posted by: LMRiM at March 18, 2009 7:17 PM
I haven't seen it, and probably won't, since we are so busy these days, but it should go for about $750/sq ft, or $1.425M. Dub dub is right, it is a bit too far up the hill for easy walkability, but that also gives you some nice views.
Posted by: NoeValleyJim at March 19, 2009 8:26 AM
The contractor was Michael Miller with Phase2 Builders. phase2builders.com
Posted by: Sam at March 19, 2009 8:29 AM
just saw it today... ridiculously small rooms, ridiculously large showers. this is WAY over priced. how anyone thought this was worth over $1.55 in 2007 is beyond me. the "google bubble" i suppose.
this is an "adult house" meaning it's only for a bachelor or DINKS who plan to stay dinks. the master bedroom's closets and bathroom are off the hook. but the other two bedrooms... well one isn't a bedroom. it's a large hallway with access to the deck. you could probably use it as an office and that's it. the other bedroom is pretty small too.
i think this is maybe $1.2 or a touch above. SS will call that a 20% drop, I call it a very bad 2007 decision. good luck finding another newly minted google millionaire hoping to impress their dates with the master bedroom
btw, you have to be awefully lazy to call this anything other than an "easy walk" to the J line. location is fine, also easy to get to 24th St. stick this up on grand view and knock off another $100k or more
Posted by: sfrob at March 19, 2009 9:50 PM
I also saw this house today. I agree with sfrob that it may not be appropriate for those looking for a traditional home. But I also think that the unique design and amazing details will appeal to someone who (like me) is fed up with spending their open house days clomping through SF SFHs that are anything but livable. The 2nd BR appeared a bit small, but there is a queen bed in there now, which takes up a fair amount of space. Not sure why it wasn't staged with a full or twin bed, since it would appear a logical choice for a kid's room or office. The 3rd BR (which looks like it doubles as a media room) is perfectly sized and certainly more than a "large hallway with access to the deck". Maybe he was talking about the kitchen, which is galley-style and also leads to the deck, but I actually liked that.
The detail in this house is spectacular. I've never seen so much glass tile in a house before (both bathrooms - one decent-sized and one enormous). SS has it right - the master suite is sweet, indeed. Great outdoor access to a zen-like yard with decent privacy, and 5 (5!) sets of french doors leading to the double-story deck. Whenever the remodel was done, it looks fantastic. Strangely-shaped entry room, but looks like it can be (and is currently being) used as a living room/receiving area. Very warm and inviting.
To each his own, but I found this house to be very enjoyable to walk through tonight. It has some real value for those who appreciate its unique style and can afford the cost of a highly turnkey and livable home in a desirable location. I guess the market will determine the ultimate selling price (unless the listing gets withdrawn), but in terms of quality this is one of the better homes I've seen in this price range.
Posted by: SteveP at March 19, 2009 11:03 PM
for those who appreciate its unique style and can afford the cost
ahh yes, the "new car" syndrome. keep in mind all that new stuff will one day be old... think "depreciating asset" just like a new car. all those SOMA condo buildings seem just so spanking sweet in their first few months, but give it a few years and most will just be another "used" building with newer "better" models coming out each year
what's more, "unique style" isn't a good thing when trying to sell real estate, especially in a down market. It's got to have utility for the masses.... and for me that's lacking - if people slept in their bathrooms this would be the most useful condo ever. I could shower for days in either of the two. But the bedrooms, not so much.
most people will walk in and love it, but then eventually decide it too impractical to buy
Posted by: sfrob at March 20, 2009 12:52 AM
Thank you all for taking the time to look at my new listing on 26th street. It really is a stunning home--Please come see for yourselves- Open sat and sunday 1-5 pm.. or call for a private showing! 415-203-9505
Yes its a great opportunity for a Buyer, and yet it still maybe a good time to list a home--This is typically the best time of the year to see, and intrest rates are amazing!
Posted by: dan hendel at March 20, 2009 9:23 AM
4216 26th - the place next door - closed at 1,059k, or $100k off its list price, after 62 dom.
Posted by: sanfrantim at March 23, 2009 10:24 AM
Checked this place out on Sunday. Bedrooms upstairs are small, Kitchen cabinets are from Ikea (literally). Someone should tell the owner to tighten the screws holding the drawer handles. I didn't check the bathroom cabinets but they may also be from Ikea. The master suite is killer but the inverted floor plan will only work for certain buyers. It's a nice small house; property Shark lists it as 1721 sqft.
Posted by: unearthly at March 23, 2009 10:41 AM
Kitchen cabinets are from Ikea (literally).
The listing website shows 1850 sq ft, a little more than prop shark's 1721. So, in 2007 someone paid $840 psf for an Ikea-level remodel. I can see how flipping was a profitable business for so long in the Bay Area.
Posted by: LMRiM at March 23, 2009 10:57 AM
We looked at this place this weekend too. Although the remodel is high-style, it appears to have been done on the cheap (def. Ikea) and doesn't quite work with the bones of the house - looked a little shoehorned in, I guess. The two upstairs bedrooms are tiny and practically unusable (not sure one even qualifies - no window except onto a hallway). The listing photos used some serious distortion to make these spaces look as expansive as they do.
Posted by: kc at April 6, 2009 12:50 PM
4214 26th just underwent a *massive* price cut of $30K (2%). I'm assuming that there is a reasonable downpayment at risk in the first loss position, and that is why the reduction is so small and has taken so long (already 48 DOM).
Who knows, maybe the strategy will work? If you are going to find a sucker to "overpay" today, SF (and NV specifically) is the place to give it a try.
Posted by: LMRiM at April 30, 2009 1:37 PM
Another Noe apple (sorry, don't have time to check permits to see if it is a clean apple):
1504 Sanchez just sold for $865K after 50 DOM. Original (?) asking price $885K. This is a 3 B/1.5 Bath SFR w/ garage. The house is small and one of the bedrooms is really tiny, so more like a 2+ than 3.
Sold in 6/2004 for $840K.
Sold in 2/1999 for $600K.
Again, don't know what was done to the house between 1999 and 2009...
Posted by: RenterAgain at May 1, 2009 12:11 PM
3963 22nd street has sold for $1.2245M. Looks to be an apple, down about 8.5% from its late 2006 purchase price of $1.3375M.
Posted by: anonn at May 11, 2009 3:00 PM
3963 22nd - useful info. It does look like an apple, and permits are already filed by the new owner to renovate a bathroom and do some other little things.
Down 8.5% from the very end of 2006 is about as good as this seller could have hoped for. I'd guess the typical mid-2007 buyer in Noe would have done even worse.
Assuming typical transaction costs, the capital loss was a bit under $200K, more or less. To put that in context, that's like writing out the check for the mortgage and property tax and insurance and maintenance, and then taking an additional 70 crisp $100 bills and setting them on fire just for emphasis. Every month. 28 months in a row.
Not too bad, I guess. And I'm being sincere. I actually think the current buyer will see a larger value decline over the next 28 months than this seller did. Congrats to the seller for cutting his losses short. Every gambler has to set a stop loss (don't I know it!).
Posted by: LMRiM at May 11, 2009 4:18 PM
Good to see the sales price on 3693 22nd. This one was a bit too "done" for my tastes with higher-end finishes than I need–– 3 BR 3 BA with a very fancy master br/bath suite downstairs. Also more expensive than I need :) But I know I could have enjoyed living there, and I hope the new owners love it.
I'm quite impatient, so this business of watching a painting of a tree grow (or whatever ex-SFer says) is excruciating. I'm hoping to see a few more sales of 3/2 SFRs in Noe soon. I expect 3756 23rd St will sell quickly–– asking $969K for a real 3/2 (no bedroom in the basement)! And then there is 3917 26th, still sitting at $1.298K. These are not apples, but just very livable family homes in nice locations.
Posted by: RenterAgain at May 11, 2009 4:42 PM
435 Alvarado appears to be another Noe Apple. Interestingly, it appears to have sold for 2.152M in 2000 (from a 1.095M list price???????!!!!) then again for 2.15M in 2006, and today for 2.14M. Looks like a .47% drop since 2006 for this one, as Noe continues with a surprising May sure to deliver a northward spring 2009 blip.
Posted by: anonn at May 13, 2009 10:23 AM
Anonn: What's going on with 714 Duncan? What do you think that will go for?
Posted by: 94114 at May 13, 2009 10:38 AM
94114, my thought process with 714 Duncan was that, looking at other properties in the area, it should have already sold. There are some funky aspects to it, but it's decent. The properties moving in Noe mostly seem to be flawless by and large. However, it's been well under 600 a foot for nearly a month. Like I said, Noe is surprising these days. And not only in a bullish sense.
Posted by: anonn at May 13, 2009 11:06 AM
If one can generalize (unheard of here), it seems like the upper and lower end are moving more quickly. Of course, how to define upper and lower end and quickly.
Posted by: 94114 at May 13, 2009 11:17 AM
714 Duncan is located on an insanely steep block. That could be contribute to its being passed over by potential buyers. Meanwhile, 770 Duncan on that same block continues to sit too, i believe.
Posted by: sanfrantim at May 13, 2009 2:59 PM
...insanely steep block. That could be contribute to its being passed over by potential buyers. Meanwhile, 770 Duncan on that same block continues to sit too, i believe.
And 826 Duncan (next block up), which looks to be a little less nice than 726. It's been sitting for a long time below its 2005 sales price, but still $100K more than 714 (sellers of 826 put down a lot in the first loss position, and are clearly having trouble facing the losses from the poor purchase decision):
The street hasn't gotten any steeper than it was in 2005 or 2007. But the potential buyers are getting smarter, albeit very very slowly in Noe Valley apparently. Call it a steep learning curve ;)
Posted by: LMRiM at May 13, 2009 3:36 PM
Posted by: unearthly at May 13, 2009 11:32 PM
Posted by: unearthly at May 13, 2009 11:35 PM
4214 26th seems to have dropped off the mls. Is it in contract, or is it yet another example of a seller who can't face the losses from an ill-timed bubble purchase in NV?
Posted by: LMRiM at May 19, 2009 5:47 PM
4214 26th Street was withdrawn from the MLS on Monday without a sale.
Posted by: SocketSite at May 20, 2009 5:56 PM
As a plugged-in tipster notes, 4214 26th Street returned to the MLS 15 days ago with a list price of $1,495,000. Once again, purchased for $1,553,000 in June of 2007.
Posted by: SocketSite at July 30, 2010 2:11 PM
And now, 2 months later, reduced to $1,395,000.
Posted by: A.T. at September 17, 2010 9:27 AM
Hmmm, so we're well past fluj's prediction that this place would sell, 18 months ago, "within five percent of list price" of 1,499,000. And this was amidst his postings of a "Virtual LOL Machine TM" and "a tiny smidgen of accountability" wrt predictions and "a northward spring 2009 blip" etc. Well, let's see where, and if, it ends up selling.
Posted by: anon at September 17, 2010 9:47 AM
That guess is within two percent of where the price sits now. And the market did go up after March 2009. Not sure what you're say9ing.
Posted by: [anon.ed] at September 17, 2010 2:22 PM
And we are less than four months away from the predicted apocalyptic date of 2011 when all homes in SF would be down 50% from their peak.
Who was more off, fluj or the doom sayers?
[Editor’s Note: Unless you can point to a specific "all homes in SF [will] be down 50% from their peak" type comment, let’s try to avoid the straw man attacks.]
Posted by: NoeValleyJim at September 17, 2010 3:03 PM
I have dozens of them, here you go:
"Will we go back to 1996 pricing? As sure as I'm sitting here."
Posted by: tipster at January 27, 2009 11:47 AM
"Case-Schiller below 110 and everything in the city 50% off peak prices by 2011."
Posted by: diemos at December 20, 2008 5:49 PM
"The odds look overwhelming that we will go back to pre-2000 price levels, and I'd bet we go back even further to 1997 or 1998. I.e my bet (guess) is that we have further drops of 30%-40% from these December levels (high end of that range for higher-priced units as they are lagging the lower end by about 6 months)."
Posted by: Trip at February 24, 2009 8:31 AM
"I believe that they will fall at least 60%. Hope you're covered when it happens."
Posted by: wanker at October 3, 2008 11:59 AM
"RE prices in Manhattan dropped 40% during the early 90s.
50% drop sounds reasonable to me."
Posted by: joh at October 9, 2009 2:37 PM
"My predicition is that Q2 01 and Q2 10 will be at the same price level"
Posted by: spencer at September 8, 2008 12:12 PM
"I'm guessing that the SF MSA will go under 100. Perhaps by not too much. 1999 pricing (on average). All in nominal terms of course."
Posted by: LMRiM at December 30, 2008 10:33 AM
2000 prices would be 50% off peak.
For some extra special negativity, posted at the height of the downturn:
"Within two years, we're likely to see 20%+ unemployment, or a mass exodus from the Valley or both."
Posted by: tipster at February 18, 2009 11:15 AM
Posted by: NoeValleyJim at September 17, 2010 3:32 PM
^NVJ is mad he didn't sell when the getting was good. Sour grapes.
Posted by: tipster at September 17, 2010 4:16 PM
Yeah, that must be it tipster. :-)
Posted by: NoeValleyJim at September 17, 2010 4:18 PM
How long have you been saving that list of quotes, NVJ? :) Spencer wasn't far off with respect to 435 Alvarado:
sold May 2000 for $2.152M
sold Aug 2006 for $2.150M
sold May 2009 for $2.140M
It was remodeled in 2003/2004, so in between 2000 and 2006 was not apples-to-apples. And if we look at inflation, $2.152M in 2000 is over $2.7M now. Big loss on that one when you throw in costs of ownership, etc
As to LMRiM's prediction on Case-Shiller, June Case-Shiller for SF MSA is back to September-October 2002.
Anyway, paint dry, grass grow, for me. Housing busts take a while, and SF's started pretty damn late.
Posted by: sfrenegade at September 17, 2010 4:20 PM
Yeah it's taking its time. Bigger wallets means longer bleeding. But bleeding nonetheless.
Posted by: lol at September 17, 2010 4:36 PM
I have a "best of SocketSite" file that has lots more than just those. All kinds of stuff, not just gloomy predictions.
Posted by: NoeValleyJim at September 17, 2010 4:47 PM
Does it have "Scare tactics are dead" on it? :)
Hope you added that bit about real estate being an efficient market...
Posted by: sfrenegade at September 17, 2010 4:52 PM
76 Homestead is BOM @ $1.895 having last sold in 2006 for $1.428. Not sure if its an apple or not. Per "Geo" above they had it on the market in 09 for $1.795 but I see no record of a transaction. Looks like they had it on earlier this year at $1.95 as well.
Posted by: eddy at July 26, 2012 6:32 PM
Speaking of 1501 Diamond. Just sold post renovation for $2,860,000
And nice revisit to some classic quotes courtesy of NVJ.
Posted by: eddy at August 31, 2012 11:53 AM
mid-2010 now looks like the exact point of capitulation. Many decreases. Bear victory grave dancing. It was the time to buy.
Posted by: lol at August 31, 2012 12:10 PM
What do you think of the Diamond sale? that is a big number for that house I think. There are a lot of better Noe places.
Posted by: sparky*b at August 31, 2012 12:15 PM
No real opinion on 1501. Not really a fan of that style of flip; but it seems very popular.
If you were trying to time the market, which is always a risky thing to attempt and never perfectly clear until you're well into the future, 2010 was a better time to buy than at any point in the previous years. And that is becoming more clear every day.
Posted by: eddy at August 31, 2012 12:29 PM
I particularly liked how he smacked Adam down. Dang!
Posted by: R at August 31, 2012 12:42 PM