March 31, 2009
January S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Accelerates
According to the January 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 4.4% from December ’08 to January '09 and fell 32.4% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 19.4% (having fallen 2.5% from December).
The three worst performing cities, in terms of annual declines, continue to be from the Sunbelt, each reporting negative returns in excess of 30%. Phoenix was down 35.0%, Las Vegas declined 32.5% and San Francisco fell 32.4%. Dallas, Denver and Cleveland faired the best in terms of annual declines down 4.9%, 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA accelerated their decline falling 5.4% from December ’08 to January '09, down 19.8% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.2% from an October 2005 high.
San Francisco MSA single-family home prices fell across all three price tiers.
The bottom third (under $297,909 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.7% from December to January (down 39.2% YOY); the middle third fell 2.9% from December to January (down 24.8% YOY); and the top third (over $527,385 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.2% from December to January (down 17.9% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to August 2000 levels having fallen 58% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has returned to May 2002 levels having fallen 39% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has fallen to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
March 30, 2009
Apples To Apples (But Likely No Longer 5% Down): 4174 26th Street
On April 13, 2004 4174 26th Street in the heart of Noe Valley sold for $829,000. The buyer put 25% down. Two years later it sold for $995,000. The buyer put 5% down.
A few months later the property appears to have changed hands between family members, and in October of 2006 the property was refinanced with two loans totaling $1,029,750. It appears that the property was taken back by the bank two months ago, and three weeks ago it was sold to a couple of agents. It's now on the market and asking $799,000.
There’s no doubt this property has its challenges (including a lack of parking). And perhaps this is the only house in Noe Valley that was purchased with 5% or less down (but we wouldn’t bet on it). Regardless, it was a legitimate comp for other sales in 2004 and 2006, all of which went on to become comps of their own. And so on. And so forth.
So what happens now if the imperfect comp upon which the values of other more perfect homes were based now sells for 20% less?
∙ Listing: 4174 26th Street (2/2) - $799,000 [MLS]
San Francisco General Hospital: Latest Renderings And Overview
It’s a plugged-in tipster that forwards the latest renderings for the San Francisco General Hospital addition and directs our attention to the Webcor overview:
The 448,000 sq ft steel moment frame structure will have two levels below grade and eight levels above grade including a mechanical penthouse. Ties to the existing hospital will be made by means of a tunnel at the B1 level and a bridge at the 2nd floor. The building will be constructed on base isolators to withstand a major seismic event.
The project will be built in 4 phases. Phase I consists of site utilities relocation and replacement. Phase II consists of service building modifications and equipment additions. Phase III consists of excavations, foundations and structure frame. Phase IV consists of the new Acute Building Enclosure and build out. The new hospital is seeking a minimum of LEED Silver certification and is expected to open in 2015.
∙ Project: San Francisco General Hospital [Webcor]
The Embarcadero Exploratorium's Most Excellent Draft EIR Update
"A draft environmental review for [the redevelopment of Piers 15-17 into a new home for the Exploratorium] failed to find any major problems, and a final report could be complete by the end of June....Even the notoriously strict agencies that govern what can be built along a waterfront are unofficially endorsing the project, which could be done as early as 2012 if it is approved by port officials and the Board of Supervisors."
∙ Smooth sailing seen for Exploratorium on pier [SFGate]
∙ Piers On Which People Can Play (Albeit More With Their Minds) [SocketSite]
SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/30/09
Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 3.3% over the past two weeks (versus an average of 4.7% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 26.8% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 18.2% for single-family homes and 32.7% for condos/TICs) and 72.6% higher than at the same point in 2006.
Twelve percent (12.1%) of listed inventory in San Francisco is known to either be bank owned (REO) or seeking a short sale including One Rincon Hill (425 1st Street) #2307, 1870 Jackson #701 in Pacific Heights, and 2510 Jackson (which we profiled last year when asking $14,900,000).
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/16/09 [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 425 1st Street #2307 (1/1) - $649,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1870 Jackson #701 (2/2) - $975,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 2510 Jackson (7/6.5) - $13,495,000 [MLS]
∙ Fortunes Can Be Fleeting (And Mansions Can Be Foreclosed Upon) [SocketSite]
What Happens When The Bay Area Median Drops 59%?
"Underlying all the market changes is the prevalence of bank-owned foreclosures being unloaded at a discount. Two years ago, only 2.6 percent of all existing [Bay Area] homes that changed hands had been foreclosed on in the prior months. This year, more than half of the existing homes that sold in January and February were foreclosures."
QuickLinks: January Outlook(s) Versus April Rental Reality
∙ Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Rental Outlook (And Quick Rebuttal) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]
∙ Renters rejoice: Prices falling citywide [San Francisco Examiner]
One Hawthorne: An Early Rendering To Reality Check(s)
The rendering above, the early One Hawthorne reality check below. Once again, 24 stories and 165 units with February 2008 expectations of pricing from $500,000 for a 550 square foot junior one-bedroom to $3 million for a 2,200 square foot penthouse.
March 27, 2009
For The Love Of Fridays And 433 Lovell Across The Way (Mill Valley)
We were tempted to simply write "too beautiful to describe," but we didn't. It’s been in DWELL, but we won’t hold that against it. And yes, it's in Mill Valley on half an acre.
Not yet listed or official inventory, but coming soon and seeking $4,175,000.
∙ Listing: 433 Lovell Avenue, Mill Valley (4/3.5) - $4,175,000 [433lovell.com]
∙ A Maybeck On The Market (And Display) Once Again: 270 Castenada [SocketSite]
∙ Quezada Architecture [thinkqa.com]
RandomRumors Via Trulia Voices: Fractional TIC Financing Drying Up?
We try not to reward bad behavior and the hijacking of a post, but it’s an off-topic comment worth repeating and a question worth clearing up (if you can):
From Real Estate pro Sally Rosenman on the Trulia forums : Sterling Bank is providing fractional loans and they are about it at the moment. Can anyone confirm or refute that fractional TIC loans are drying up? Is Bank of Marin or Circle Bank lending?
UPDATE: A few TIC numbers and trends to ponder as well.
A Maybeck On The Market (And Display) Once Again: 270 Castenada
The house is our attempt to suggest the idea of an English character in California. Although this house would never happen in England, it yet has an English feeling. The lower wing is a chapel form living room greatly used in an early period, the ceiling of this room is very similar to one in Sainesbury Hill Lancashire. The second story windows are of iron like their English prototypes. The building and its setting among the trees loudly proclaims the good taste of Mrs. and Mr. Erlanger from whom the suggestions came.
Asking $3,890,000 and briefly in contract before being withdrawn last April, listed at $2,995,000 today. Still touting "too beautiful to describe" despite Maybeck's (and the Vernacular Language North) attempt.
∙ Listing: 270 Castenada (4/3.5) - $2,995,000 [MLS]
∙ Vernacular Language North: S. Erlanger house [VLN]
∙ Bernard Maybeck: California Architect [harvardsquarelibrary.org]
∙ A Peek Inside 270 Castenada (And Now About Those Drawings...) [SocketSite]
∙ Too Beautiful To Describe (Except By The Architect): 270 Castenada [SocketSite]
∙ Past Post And Property Update: Listing For 270 Castenada Withdrawn [SocketSite]
The Dow Continues To Move (While 2170 Pacific Still Hasn’t)
It’s at least the fourth time a listing for 2170 Pacific Avenue has touted "On Tour as New" and "1st OPEN!" Now asking $2,995,000 with an official one day on the market according to those industry stats.
Purchased on 5/27/2004 for $2,350,000. Once again, closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average on that day: 9,958. On October 10, 2008 when last listed at $3,250,000: 8,174. And currently: 7,787.
∙ Listing: 2170 Pacific Avenue (3/3.5) - $2,995,000 [MLS]
∙ At Least Some Of The Photos Look To Be "New" As Well: 2170 Pacific [SocketSite]
∙ It's Deja Vu (But Not DJIA) All Over Again: 2170 Pacific Avenue Edition [SocketSite]
JustQuotes: Let's Be Careful Out There People
"Rescue scams are springing up across the U.S., says California Deputy Attorney General Angela Rosenau, exacerbating a housing crisis in its third year. The predators are persuading troubled borrowers they can intervene with their lenders and negotiate lower payments on their mortgages, law enforcement officials say. Instead, the players, often out-of-work real estate professionals who peddled subprime mortgages during the boom, pocket hundreds of thousands of dollars in advance fees and disappear or bleed their victims by charging monthly payments."
1333 Green Street Back In Black And White (And Now 1331 As Well)
As we wrote last July:
Added on to the front of the lot where Imogen Cunningham once had her home and studio (1331 Green). Designed by Paulette Taggart. And now on the market as a TIC.
∙ Listing: 1331 Green Street (3/2) - $2,000,000 (TIC) [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1333 Green Street (1/1) - $850,000 (TIC) [MLS]
∙ The Imogen Cunningham Trust [imogencunningham.com]
∙ Paulette Taggart Architects [ptarc.com]
∙ 1331-1333 Green In Black And White (In Honor Of Imogen) [SocketSite]
Lembis At Risk Of Losing Another 23 Apartment Buildings
After deeding 51 buildings back to the bank in lieu of foreclosure in January, the Lembis are at risk of losing another 23 of their remaining 250-ish apartment buildings in San Francisco. From J.K. Dineen:
[A CIM Group] affiliate bought $121 million of distressed Lembi debt from Column Financial on Dec. 19 of last year. The affiliate alleges in a complaint filed in San Francisco Superior Court March 4 that the Lembi subsidiary Trophy Properties [which owns 23 properties] has been in default on payments since Feb. 10 on two loans, one for $116.1 million and one for $5.2 million. Interest accrued and outstanding from Jan. 9 to March 2 amounted to $1.8 million, and interest on the unpaid balance is accruing at a rate of $50,600 a day, according to court documents. That amounts to about $18.4 million a year — more than double the approximate $8 million the 23 properties generate in rents, according to rent roll information on the buildings included in court documents filed with the complaint.
The 23 properties at risk: 3475 16th Street, 3000 24th Street, 360 32nd Avenue, 427 34th Avenue, 9 August Alley, 2101 Bay, 1650 California, 650 Church, 1345 Clement, 43 Cole, 347 Eddy, 1745 Franklin, 345 Green, 305 Hyde, 1456 Jones, 2235 Laguna, 1516 Larkin, 2117 Market, 2135 Market, 230 Oak, 1070 Post, 840 Van Ness, 956 Valencia.
And Then There Were Six - And One Resale - At The Hayes (55 Page)
According to the sales office there are only six new condos left to be sold at The Hayes (55 Page). And there are only two units currently listed for sale on the MLS (one of which is a two-bedroom penthouse re-sale asking $998,000 or $665 per square foot).
UPDATE: A bit of plugged-in insight on the aforementioned penthouse unit:
This unit shown is/was also listed for rent. I checked it out and while very nice, I didn't like that the whole place is carpeted. Owner/agent said it was previously rented to a banking couple who had lost their jobs and moved to Sac. Said they had been paying over $5000 for rent, then was listed at $4500 when I saw it, and recently saw it listed at $4200 I think.
Now asking for $4,000.
March 26, 2009
More New Trees: A Reader’s Report (And Photo) From Mission Street
Selling The Rest Of Their Sold Out Inventory At 199 New Montgomery
In 2005 a bidding war left 199 New Montgomery "sold out." Today a plugged-in tipster reports that Pacific Union is helping the developer move "more than 12 units" in the building, only a few of which are currently listed as inventory.
∙ Reduced! At 199 New Montgomery [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/16/09 [SocketSite]
Name Dropping Hollywood Style: Marquee Lofts #702
Another multi-unit combo (#701 and #702), the interior of the 2,300 square foot loft was designed by Stanley Saitowitz; it features a "custom designed steel audio cabinet" by sculptor Kyle Reicher (and wenge wood bookshelf by Robert Croutier); and it was Keanu Reeves' character’s apartment in the 2001 movie "Sweet November."
We’re digging the steel pocket doors, big windows, and easy access to the theaters below. And in keeping with the Hollywood theme, there’s a "sneak preview" tonight (3/26).
∙ Listing: 151 Alice B. Toklas Place #702 (2/2) - $1,800,000 [Alain Pinel] [MLS]
∙ The Lighthouse Lofts Apple Of Our Eye Returns (1097 Howard #308) [SocketSite]
San Francisco's Housing Element And Planning Department Survey
The San Francisco Planning Department is busy working on the City's "2009 Housing Element," the five year vision and general plan for housing that drives City policy.
Participants in the work to date have given feedback on what is currently working (or not) in the City of San Francisco as well as ideas that they have for how housing preservation and development could be better achieved in the future. From many conversations had over the past six months the following topic areas have emerged as dominate themes:
Adequate sites for housing
Conserving and improving existing housing stock
Equal Housing Opportunities
Facilitating Permanently Affordable Housing
Removing Constraints to the Construction of Housing
Maintaining the Character of San Francisco’s Neighborhoods
Balancing Housing Construction and Infrastructure
Prioritizing Sustainable Development
A housing survey is part of the process, and as a tipster notes, it's an "opportunity for SocketSite readers to provide their input." Above and beyond your comments of course...
∙ San Francisco Planning Department: Housing Element 2009 [sfplanning.org] [Survey]