Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 14% over the past two weeks (versus an average of 16.1% over the same two weeks in 2006 and 2007) and is currently running 30.5% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 2.8% over the past two weeks) as few new homes are listed and many are withdrawn as we close out the year.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 12/01/08 [SocketSite]
30% higher! ho hum yawn!
(Editor, before you reach for the delete button, just pointing out that it is not a very severe uptick in this particular statistic>)
How does this compare to the Socket Site CII?
30.5% higher inventory is itself a significant shift. But, of course, this is just half of the supply-demand equation. It is the demand side — sales — that has really shifted. Here are the November sales data:
http://www.rereport.com/sf/
November sales are down about 45% YOY. The higher inventory is putting downward pressure on prices and the lower demand is adding even more. You’ve got to look at both of these, and when you do the price trend is pretty undeniable. We’re not going to see 10% declines in a month, but 2-3% declines month after month add up.
although an important graph, I feel that it somewhat fails us in winter months due to seasonal variations.
now there is no question that this year’s data looks worse than comparable numbers from last year… however I still try not to use winter data too much.
(as I say every year), the big test will be the spring numbers (from super bowl to June). that’s when the more serious buyers and sellers will be out. all the people who tried to sell and pulled their listing this year will be much more willing to negotiate next year. only those people who are serious about buying will bother going out next year. so you’ll have serious sellers and serious buyers. we’ll just have to see how it all sorts out.
if SF continues to follow SD’s trend, then this coming year and 2010 are the years when the price drops happen.
we’ll know by June (when May’s numbers are released).
This past year, if you didn’t get your price, you could always take the home off the market and rent it for a pretty significant amount. If you bought more than a few years ago, you were cash flow positive, or at least not too negative.
That took a lot of pressure off the sell side of the market as units were withdrawn and rented, and owners held their prices because they knew they could rent as a back up strategy.
However, that is changing. People are getting laid off and few companies are hiring. That is putting significant downward pressure on the rental market. The number of craigslist SF rental listings this weekend was at a yearly high, during a month that it would typically hit a seasonal yearly low. 975 listings on Friday compared to last year, when it was less than half that much.
And the layoffs are just getting started, and people usually hold on to their apartments for awhile hoping to find another job, so the layoffs haven’t shown up in the rental stats in earnest. It will be a lot worse next year.
So now, anyone trying to take a home off the market and ride out the market downturn without too great a loss is going to find that is no longer a possible strategy unless they bought in the 90s. That will add to the selling pressure next year.
And the rent vs. buy will get worse, reducing demand. Further, availability of nice places to rent will be plentiful at reasonable prices. As housing prices fall, no one will have any real need to buy when they can take their pick of just as nice rentals for less.
Next year should be an interesting time.
Fun with numbers: combine the supply info from this thread with the info Trip posted on November sales. There were roughly 188 fewer sales in November of this year compared to 2007, so subtracting out the decreased sales from the increased supply and we can guesstimate that about 13% of the increase is from reduced sales and 17% is from increased supply.
Rillion, arithmetically correct but pretty meaningless 🙂
188 fewer sales in November is an eye popping number IMO.
The Chronicle’s median numbers are pointing to a median of $650k; down from the peak of $880k and last month’s $675k.
(Not too surprising)
Where have all the listings gone? (Just heard the old Pete Seeger protest song.) From Oct 1 through today (Dec 15), 976 listings have been changed to expired or withdrawn status. For the same period in 2004, the number of expiring (or withdrawn) listings was 363. I wonder when these listings will return? (Or, as Pete Seeger might ask, when will they ever learn?)
The sales numbers show a sharp divergence in the market effect between condos and SHF’s, as some have been noting for a while. SFH sales were only marginally down (only 39 fewer SFH sales than last year), and at a time (Sept-Oct) when the country was experiencing a season of its greatest financial insecurity in 75 years. However the bottom truly does appear to have dropped out of the condo market, for the time being at least.
What you mean is SFHs are showing relative strength.
Is that what the kids are listening to these days, Pete Seeger?
SFR median prices were down 18% YOY in November. Condo medians were only down 7%. It looks like the condo market is the one showing relative strength.