December 30, 2008
October S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Down Across The Board
According to the October 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 4.2% from September ’08 to October '08 and are down 31.0% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 19.1% (having fallen 2.1% from September).
Three of the metro areas have given back, on average, more than 30% of the value of homes since October of last year. Phoenix remains the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 32.7%, followed by Las Vegas, down 31.7%, and San Francisco down 31.0%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego were close behind with annual declines of 29.0%, 27.9% and 26.7%, respectively.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA also continued their decline falling 3.1% from September ’08 to October '08, down 17.0% on a year-over-year basis and down 19.8% from an October 2005 high.
And San Francisco MSA single-family home prices once again fell across all three price tiers.
The bottom third (under $361,865 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.5% from September to October (down 42.1% YOY); the middle third fell 2.7% from September to October (down 27.6% YOY); and the top third (over $616,549 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.7% from September to October (down 15.7% YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to January 2001 levels, the middle third has returned to April 2003 levels, and the top third has fallen to October 2004 levels.
The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best).
December 29, 2008
SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 12/29/08
Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 20.2% over the past two weeks (about average for the end of the year) and is closing out 2008 29.3% higher versus last year (60.1% higher versus 2006).
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 12/15/08 [SocketSite]
Drinking Might Be On The Rise, But Martini Park San Francisco Is Not
A plugged-in (and observant) reader reports:
There has been a sign at Rincon Center for the past 4-6 months saying that a Martini Park bar will be opening in late Fall 2008. Of recent, there is a "for lease" sign in one of the windows (Spear Street side). There is also no reference to a San Francisco location on the company's website. There was several months ago.
Curious if it has died a quite death as a result of the slowing economy. That was the line they gave for closing the location in Texas.
That's probably a good guess, and they wouldn't be alone, but we can't confirm. Readers?
Back Forward To Beacon Two-Bedrooms Asking Under $600,000
A tax assed value of just over $750,000; a recorded sale back to the bank three weeks ago for $629,142; and a two-bedroom/bath condo at the beacon that’s now asking $599,900 (and touting “Offers anytime!”). Yes, it's 250 King Street #266 and almost the end of 2008.
∙ Listing: 250 King #266 (2/2) - $599,900 [MLS]
The Newsom Four (Historic Preservation Commission Nominees)
Four Mayor Newsom appointees to the newly approved Historic Preservation Commission are up for confirmation at tomorrow’s Board of Supervisors meeting. The Newsom four: Tammy Chan, environmental planner; Karl Hasz, current landmarks board member; Sue Lee, former planning commissioner; and Alan Martinez, architect. If the four are confirmed, it will be three to go.
∙ Newsom’s preservation panel picks go to board [San Francisco Examiner]
∙ The Day After: November 4 Real Estate Related Election Results [SocketSite]
∙ Landmarks Preservation: Out Of The Frying Pan And Into The Fire? [SocketSite]
December 24, 2008
San Francisco’s Sava Pool: From Rendering To Reality
A bit of San Francisco architectural beauty to end the holiday week (but not quite year).
The Charlie Sava Pool: Commissioned by the City of San Francisco, Rec and Park Dept, designed by Mark Cavagnero Associates & Paulett Taggart Architects, built by West Bay Builders, and photographed by Tim Griffith (click to enlarge).
And some plugged-in tipster bonus verbiage for our design (and swimming) wonks:
The building essentially comprises of 2 simple interlocking volumes - one for the pool (natatorium) and the other for the support areas (lockers, lobby, community room, staff areas, storage)- enjoying a symbiotic relationship, nestled in the park. The exterior is a composition of cast in place concrete, handcrafted tile and curtain wall.
The generous exterior sunshade/ interior light shelf running the length of glazing on the south facade, reduces glare while allowing sweeping views of stern grove across the street.
The concrete on the exterior reads as concrete on the interior, the glass reads as glass and the handcrafted tile translates to wood slats with acoustic foam on the interior. In the Natatorium, 4 Ceiling suspended clouds provide a taut reflective surface to the uplights (that must be above the pool deck for easy access) and also conceal additional acoustic material above it.
The City's new standard required a UV filtration system be installed to complement the chlorine system, thus dramatically improving indoor air quality and virtually eliminating the 'typical pool smell' making the experience of swimming more enjoyable and healthier.
The natatorium roof has about 3,500 sq ft of solar hot water panels, which help capture solar energy and partially offset the heating cost of the pool water, helping the City reduce its running cost.
Cheers. Happy holidays. And as always, thank you for plugging in.
JustQuotes: Jumbo Premiums For Jumbo Loans
"The average 30-year fixed jumbo loan rate was 7.32 percent on Dec. 22, compared with 5.38 percent for a conforming loan, according to BanxQuote of White Plains, New York.
The difference between them has averaged 2.13 percentage points in December, 10 times the average spread from 2000 to 2006 and above last month’s 1.95 percentage points that was the highest on record."
One Rincon Hill: From The
$500's $700's $500's
In the words of a plugged-in reader:
Has anyone noticed on One Rincon Hill's website, prices are stated as being from the "$500's" as opposed to the "$700's" a couple weeks ago? Not really a tip, but perhaps the developer is getting a bit more aggressive...
No word on when - or rather if - they'll be changing that "from the $700's" sign by One Rincon Hill drive. And do keep in mind that when the sales office first opened over two years ago there were at least a few units priced from the (high) $500's as well.
∙ First Impressions: One Rincon Hill Sales Center [SocketSite]
December 23, 2008
JustQuotes: Forget The Hopes, It's Time For Prayer
"Sales of single-family houses in the U.S. dropped in November by the most in two decades and resale prices collapsed at a pace reminiscent of the Great Depression, dashing hopes that the market was close to a bottom."
Rent Kirk Hammett’s Mansion For $1,555 A Month (Split Nine Ways)
Last listed for sale at $9,500,000 before being withdrawn, Kirk Hammett’s recently remodeled mansion atop Pacific Heights (2505 Divisadero) is now being offered for rent at $14,000 a month. Yes, that’s only $1,550 per bedroom (there are nine).
And while that application from you and eight of your buddies probably won’t make it past the screen, we’re calling it a rental bargain. Not only relative to 313 Duncan or either of those high-rise condos, but honestly based on the math.
UPDATE: As noted, within an hour of our publicizing the craigslist post for 2505 Divisadero was "deleted by its author."
∙ The Monster Meets A Magnetic Death? (2505 Divisadero Withdrawn) [SocketSite]
∙ This Isn't Exactly How Mr. Hammett Used To Roll (2505 Divisadero) [SocketSite]
∙ $14000 Pacific Heights Georgian Mansion [Craigslist]
∙ 313 Duncan: Going The Rental Route (But Still Available For Sale) [SocketSite]
∙ The Relative Value Of Two High-Rise Rentals Around $12,000 A Month [SocketSite]
The Relative Value Of Two High-Rise Rentals Around $12,000 A Month
A mid-floor three bedroom, three bath at the St. Regis with a view of One Rincon asking $11,950 a month. Or a high-floor two bedroom, two bath at One Rincon with a view of the Bay Bridge for fifty bucks more ($12,000 a month).
Similar rents but very different values. You make the call.
∙ $11950 / 3br - Rare Corner 3Bed/3Bath at St. Regis! [Craigslist]
∙ $12000 / 2br - Luxury Penthouse Suite @ One Rincon Hill: 2BR 2BA [Craigslist]
December 22, 2008
Name That House In Four Photos Or Less (Plus A Little Verbiage)
It’s not quite as difficult as the single deck shot challenge a plugged-in tipster nailed a while back, but it’s a “name that house” challenge nonetheless. Four pictures above, a bit of verbiage below:
Boasting approximately 6,000 square feet of living space, this extraordinary Pacific Heights home is semi-detached and sits on an over sized 5,312 square foot lot…Once the home of US Senator Dianne Feinstein during her term as Mayor of San Francisco, this stunning home boasts superior architectural detail…[and a] Thomas Church designed landscaped garden.
Bonus points for estimating the "coming soon" price (five bedrooms, four full and two half baths, two car parking). Double bonus points for correctly calling when it lands in contract and for how much.
UPDATE: And we have a winner (2030 Lyon):
The bonus points are still up for grabs.
∙ Coming Soon In Cow Hollow (But We Want To Know Now) [SocketSite]
Some "Older Folks" (His Words, Not Ours) Perspective On The Market
Some excerpted perspective from an
older experienced plugged-in reader:
Us older folks (48 years myself) have seen this all before. I sold my second home in Santa Monica in 1990 which at that time had the same bubble energy of late 2006 here. I had 6 offers within 48 hours, almost all over listing price, which was 25% more than any other similar home sold for in my neighborhood that year.
Back then L.A. was going through a bubble that reminds me very much of what we see here. The buyer had to hold on until 2000 to be able to finally sell it for what he originally purchased the home for, not more. This was a nice area, north of Montana, with many media stars living nearby and listed architectural gems by noted architects such as Neutra, Wallace Neff, Gordon Kaufman, etc., including at that time the bizarre residence of Frank Gehry. This was the "real Santa Monica".
10 years is a LONG time to have to wait to get your money back...
That it is. Especially if one was sold on "normal" returns or is counting on building equity to fund the purchase of a move-up home.
∙ Perhaps It’s The Market That’s More Unbelievable To Some... [SocketSite]
313 Duncan: Going The Rental Route (But Still Available For Sale)
After two months on the market 313 Duncan remains available for purchase and seeking $2,850,000, but the developer is now testing the rental waters as well. Asking $15,000 per month (including that sweet little one-bedroom out back).
∙ 313 Duncan: Before, After, And All Its Insides Now “Online” [SocketSite]
∙ $15000 / 5br - Stunning Modern Victorian Home with Guest House [Craigslist]
∙ Coming Soon: Victorians Gone Modern! (313 Duncan) [SocketSite]
December 19, 2008
Perhaps It’s The Market That’s More Unbelievable To Some...
Purchased for $1,600,000 a year ago when they were asking $1,675,000, 214 Arguello Boulevard returned to the market nine months later (September 2008) asking $1,595,000. The list price was lowered to $1,495,000 six weeks later. And for the past three they've been asking $1,395,000.
A sale at the current asking for this four bedroom, two and one-half bath, completely renovated and District 7 (albeit on a busy block, as it was before) condo would represent depreciation of 12.8% over the past year.
From the listing: "This price is [absolutely] unbelievable…" Only if you're not plugged-in.
∙ Listing: 214 Arguello Boulevard (4/2.5) - $1,395,000 [MLS]
The Newest Chelsea Park Comp: 3620 19th Street #28 Closes Escrow
The sale of Chelsea Park (3620 19th Street) #28 closed escrow on 12/12/08 with a reported contract price of $619,000 (including five years of leased parking). Listed for $749,000 (or 17% more) two months ago, we have reason to believe this two-bedroom was asking even more before (one-bedrooms were originally offered from $679,000).
∙ Changing Chelsea Park Expectations Versus Eleven Months Ago [SocketSite]
∙ The Latest Listing Verbiage From Chelsea Park: "Prices Slashed" [SocketSite]
And Now We Do, It Wasn’t (Have An Answer And Possible)
As we wrote 14 months ago:
What most people already know about Frank Norris Place (81 Frank Norris): it’s a new development of 32 one bedroom “luxury condos” on Polk; it’s been selling for about six months; and it was originally designated “City Living For City People 55 and Over” (i.e., at least one occupant per unit had to be 55+).
What plugged-in people know: it’s roughly 50% “sold”; prices have been reduced by as much as $50,000 (11%) since their initial “pre-release pricing”; the website is advertising 2 years of paid HOA dues (which range from $330 to $430 per month); and perhaps most interestingly, we’ve been told that the building’s CC&R’s are in the process of being amended to allow residents under 55 to occupy up to 20% of the development.
And while we don’t have an answer as to how that amendment was even possible (as far as we know the developer was able to double the density of the development based on the original age restrictions), we do know that it might make it worth taking another look if you liked the design, location, and pricing of the condos (but simply weren’t old enough to occupy at the time).
As the San Francisco Business Times writes today: “A developer in San Francisco is under fire from city officials for an unusual offense: selling condominiums to young people.”
The developer has filed for bankruptcy, the Planning Department has issued a notice of violation for not keeping the building 100% senior/handicap occupied, and at least one buyer has sued (both the developer and Vanguard).
∙ The SocketSite Scoop On Frank Norris Place (81 Frank Norris) [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco condo developer built for old, sold to young [Business Times]
Doesn't Everybody Want To Work Here? (Class A Rents Plunge)
“A new Colliers International report found weighted average rents in the financial district dropped from $56.17 to $41.34 a square foot during the [fourth quarter], a 26.4 percent decline. Across the entire San Francisco market, Class A average rents dropped even more — 28.2 percent from $55.65 to $39.79 a square foot.”
∙ Downtown S.F. office rents plunge by 26% [Business Times]
∙ S.F. office space rent drops 22% [SFGate]
∙ San Francisco Firms Continue To Shed And Sublease Office Space [SocketSite]
Another Non-Comp Comp On The Market At 246 2nd Street (#1003)
In October of 2005 246 2nd Street #1003 sold for a reported $950,000. In April of 2008 the unit was bought back by the bank for $835,783. And yesterday it hit the market asking $689,900.
Previously purchased and owned by the same party that had owned and lost #502. And as plugged-in people know, but industry stats wouldn’t reflect, both condos were purchased with a significant amount of cash back at closing. Let’s hope nobody relied on that sale back in 2005 as a “comp.”
First purchased for $734,500 in the year 2000 when the building was built.
∙ Listing: 246 2nd Street #1003 (2/2) - $689,900 [MLS]
∙ Can Bank Owned Comps Kill (Values)? 246 2nd Street #502 Returns [SocketSite]
San Francisco Planning Commission Green Lights Schlage Demo
"The City’s old Schlage Lock factory, closed in 1999 and left derelict since then, will finally meet the proverbial wrecking ball, perhaps as soon as February, according to city officials.
The Planning Commission on Thursday approved a proposal to transform the abandoned site and the neighborhood around it into a 46-acre transit village. The plan consists of cleaning up rife contamination from 70 years of lock manufacturing and building hundreds of new homes, parks, businesses and even a grocery store."
∙ Schlage Lock factory may finally meet wrecking balls [SFExaminer]
∙ Unlocking The Potential Of Visitacion Valley: The Former Schlage Site [SocketSite]