While Those Two Agree, It’s A Third That Really Matters
In July of 2006 the renovated 835 Foerster was purchased with loans totaling $950,000 up in Miraloma Park. From the listing today:
Lender-approved short sale! An amazing value! After many months of negotiations, sale price has been set! Must be sold immediately! Property was marketed for $1,049,000 last year!
And while it’s good to know the seller and lender have come to terms (but perhaps not grips), we’re more interested in whether or not the market (i.e., a buyer) will agree.
∙ Listing: 835 Foerster (3/2.5) - $855,000 [Vanguard via Pacific Union]
Getting A Bit Moody About The Delinquency Trends For Alt-A Loans
From a HousingWire via a plugged-in tipster:
Severe delinquencies on recent-vintage Alt-A RMBS are quickly getting worse than expected, Moody’s Investors Service said earlier this week; the rating agency said worsening trends in Alt-A have forced it to undertake a revision of lifetime loss projections for 2006 and 2007 vintages, as a result. Moody’s last revised its loss expectations for the Alt-A sector six months ago.
As of Oct. 2008, serious delinquencies for Alt-A pools — including option ARMs — averaged 20.3 percent of current balance for the 2006 vintage and 17.5 percent for the 2007 vintage, up from 16.9 and 12.2 percent six months ago. At the same time, prepayment rates on these pools are at historical lows and are currently averaging in the mid to high single digits, Moody’s noted. Serious delinquencies refers to mortgages more than 60 days in arrears, in this case.
(In plain English, and keeping things simple: the prepayment picture here is important. Delinquencies as a percentage of current balance can go up as a matter of course as a loan pool seasons and borrowers prepay, and revintage, themselves. By stressing here that prepayments aren’t just low, but really low, Moody’s is saying that this statistical artifact is not driving the rise.)
While cumulative losses have not yet risen as steeply as delinquencies, many pools are starting to show a sharp increase in the rate of loss realization, according to Moody’s. And as the pace of liquidations has picked up, the performance data suggests worsening loss severities, as well.
∙ Alt-A Losses Outstripping Expectations, Moody’s Says [HousingWire]
∙ Subprime And Alt-A Statistics By County: The Feds Mortgage Map [SocketSite]
November 20, 2008
The SocketSite Scoop And Rumor Confirmed: Artani Suspending Sales
From a reader's rumor last month, to a plugged-in tipster's confirmation today:
The developer of [The Artani] is temporarily suspending sales and will continue to offer these units as rentals. It will be public information soon enough but I'd appreciate it if you kept my name and email anonymous.
Done. And now who's next?
San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In October: Down 21.3% YOY
According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco fell 21.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (414 recorded sales in October ’08 versus 526 sales in October ‘07) and fell 9.6% compared to the month prior. San Francisco was the only Bay Area county to record a year-over-year sales volume decline.
Keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
San Francisco's median sales price in October was $699,000, down 12.1% compared to October ’07 ($795,000) but rose 3.6% compared to the month prior.
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in October was up 38.8% on a year-over-year basis and increased 4.7% from the month prior (7,613 recorded sales in October '08 versus 5,486 in October ’07 and 7,271 in September '08), while the recorded median sales price fell 40.6% on a year-over-year basis, down 6.3% compared to the month prior. Once again, think foreclosures.
At the county level, foreclosure resales ranged from 10.6 percent of resales in San Francisco to 68 percent in Solano County. In the Bay Area's other seven counties, October foreclosure resales were as follows: Alameda, 41.1 percent; Contra Costa, 58.9 percent; Marin, 17.2 percent; Napa, 45.6 percent; Santa Clara, 36.4 percent; San Mateo, 21.6 percent; Sonoma, 49.7 percent.
At the extremes, Solano recorded a 141.1% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 436 transactions) on a 38.7% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 86.7% increase in sales volume (a gain of 877 transactions) on a 46.3% drop in median sales price.
Perhaps Not Disclosed, But We Might Suggest Some Discovery
While we do like the mention of “new concrete foundation, electrical, plumbing and heating” (and the bonus rooms), we’re not particularly keen on the lack of any recent permit history (not to mention the "Hazardous Building" complaint) online.
And unfortunately (for more than one party), it is a trust sale and emphasizing “exempt from most disclosures” in the remarks.
∙ Listing: 326 Virginia Avenue (2/1.5) - $699,000 [MLS]
∙ San Francisco Online Permit and Complaint Tracking [SFGov]
From “Very” To “Extremely” For The Seller, Decoder Ring On The Way
Purchased in March of 2002 for $975,000 but then "extensively remodeled" in 2003, 1821-23 Lyon was listed two months ago for $3,295,500, reduced a month later to $2,995,500, and then cut to $2,695,000 the day before yesterday.
According to the listing(s), the seller of has gone from being very to extremely motivated (don't worry, a SocketSite decoder ring is on the way). And “OMC2” you ask? Owner may carry second (and not to be confused with OMD, they are back together you know).
The Seven Year
Itch Low: San Francisco Business Optimism Falling
"Businesses in San Francisco have been hit hard by the global economic malaise, with new figures showing Bay Area business optimism has sunk to new lows and more than one-third of companies in The City expect to shed staff [but 18% to add] before June."
In San Mateo, 48% of the firms surveyed by the Bay Area Council expect to cut jobs in the next six months, while 14% expect to add.
And in terms of when a recovery will begin, 59% of those surveyed in San Francisco are currently forecasting in one to two years, with 73% of those in San Mateo responding the same.
∙ Bay Area businesses reeling from global downturn [San Francisco Examiner]
∙ Once Again, It's Just Getting Starting (And It's Going To Last Longer) [SocketSite]
November 19, 2008
But Keep In Mind, It’s Not Just About The View(s)
As the sun sets (okay, set) over San Francisco we turn to a plugged-in reader’s view from her two-bedroom, two-bath apartment. In the words of our reader:
I felt compelled to send you the picture of my view and tell you how much I pay for it when I saw the [price] the owners of 1200 California #25a are asking for their [one-bedroom] (albeit 30% larger than my place).
I think it would be interesting to compare…the view from $3200/mo rental vs. $2.895M.
Keep in mind that our reader signed the lease on her 965 square foot apartment four and one-half years ago and a comparable unit in the building is asking $4,095 without parking which is valued at $289/mo (and included in our reader’s rent).
And in related 1200 California news, #12D appears to be in contract. Asking $2,295,000.
[Editor's Note: While the sun was setting as we wrote and published, it is indeed rising above. Damn you're tough. And we'd expect nothing less. Cheers.]
∙ Is That A Listing With Big Views (And Price) In Your Pocket Or… [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 1200 California #12D (2/2) 1,850 sqft - $2,295,000 [MLS]
Did Somebody Say Deflation?
From the New York Times today:
In another sign that the struggling economy continues to slow, consumer prices tumbled by a record amount in October, carried lower by skidding energy and transportation prices, raising the specter of deflation.
From a plugged-in reader's comment we promoted last year:
Thanks for the questions regarding how I can be predicting deflation when everyone else seems to be saying inflation (and some price measures are pointing that way). It does seem contradictory, but it's really pretty straightforward when you take it step by step...
It's good to be plugged-in.
∙ Consumer Price Decline Prompts Fear of Deflation [New York Times]
∙ Promoted From Comment To Post: Satchel Does Deflation [SocketSite]
Hanley Woods New Condo Stats For San Francisco: Values Falling
A plugged-in tipster quotes the latest Hanley Woods “New Homes Executive Summary”:
Attached Townhomes and Condominiums: San Francisco County (3rd Quarter 2008)
Change in Median Sales Price: +10.5% YOY
Change in Median Square Feet: +22.9% YOY
Change in Median Sales Price Per Square Foot: -10.1% YOY
Change in Average Sales Price: -3.7% YOY
Change in Average Square Feet: +3.7% YOY
Change in Average Sales Price Per Square Foot: -5.5% YOY
As we’ve been saying about those medians for quite some time, think mix. And for those who frequently confuse an increasing median with increasing value, think again.
UPDATE: A point of clarification and emphasis, Hanley Woods data is based on new units available for sale, not those which have already sold.
224 Twin Peaks Boulevard: A Study In Rising Prices Yet Falling Values
Purchased for $1,360,000 a year ago (11/2/07), 224 Twin Peaks Boulevard returned to the market in June asking $1,395,000 and was subsequently reduced to $1,249,000.
Unable to find its buyer, the property has since undergone a “fantastic transformation” with the exterior, front & rear decks, landscaping, kitchen, bathrooms and floor plan all having been “beautifully brought up to date for today's lifestyle.”
Listed once again two weeks ago for $1,749,000, reduced yesterday to $1,655,000, and touting a “Motivated seller!” We’ll let you figure out just how much so.
U.S. Homebuilder Confidence: At Least It Can't Go Too Much Lower...
The bad news:
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders in November dropped to the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1985, a sign that the deepening credit crisis is preventing prospective buyers from purchasing new homes.
The good news:
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence decreased to 9, lower than forecast, from 14 in October, the Washington-based association said [yesterday]. A reading less than 50 means most respondents view conditions as poor.
How's that the good news? It can only fall another nine points...
∙ Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Drops to Record Low [Bloomberg]
November 18, 2008
The Noe Valley Summit Gets Closer Still (And Listings Anew For Two)
Listed five months ago and priced at $1,949,000, and then reduced to $1,649,000 three months after that, 4121 Cesar Chavez #6 was listed anew yesterday for $1,599,000. That's an "official" two days on the Noe Valley market according to those sell side stats.
These units are indeed spectacular, particularly the upper floor units 5 &6. These won't move at their current price point and my agent (who's VERY well connected to the SF agent network) advised me to sit back and wait til this drops to at least $800 per.
As always, it's good to be connected and plugged-in.
Oh, and while 4121 Cesar Chavez #1 is now in contract with an "original" list price of $1,198,000 ($771/sqft), it's a plugged-in tipster that reminds us they were once asking $1,349,000. Remember to adjust those industry reports accordingly.
∙ Listing: 4121 Cesar Chavez St #2 (2/2.5) - $998,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 4121 Cesar Chavez St #6 (3/2.5) - $1,599,000 [MLS]
∙ It Gets A Little Easier To Reach The Summit (4121 Cesar Chavez) [SocketSite]
We'll Connect The Comments, You Connect The Dots (And History)
From a comment this afternoon:
I remember Palo Alto holding up well (in nominal terms) [from 1990 to 1992] and I trust the best parts of SF did too.
But from a plugged-in reader last week:
A friend of my Dad was just reminding us that he bought a couple Palo Alto REOs in 1994 for about half of what they sold for in 1989…
We'll connect the comments. You connect the dots (and history).
Transbay Block 8: The Request For Proposals And Basic Design(s)
The Request For Proposals to develop Transbay Block 8 (bounded by First, Folsom, Freemont and Clementina) is out and about and due back January 22, 2009. Once again, a one-acre parcel which is slated for a market-rate 450-550 foot residential tower and row of 50-foot townhouses along with a pair of 65-85 foot affordable housing podiums. In all, 597 potential housing units over 7,000 square feet of ground floor retail.
“As part of the Market-Rate Project, the for-profit developer will be required to demolish and reconfigure the existing Folsom Street Off-Ramp and construct public improvements on the site as detailed in the Transbay Redevelopment Project Area Streetscape and Open Space Concept Plan.”
Once Again, It's Just Getting Starting (And It's Going To Last Longer)
"From a Bay Area view, the global slowdown threatens tech exports and tourism, which have so far cushioned San Francisco and the Silicon Valley from the housing bust that has already clobbered the East Bay..."
∙ Economists say recession is here, and will last [SFGate]
∙ The Google Chart Of The Day (And A Bit More Foreshadowing) [SocketSite]
∙ From Underwater To Unemployed (And Sorry, But It’s Just Starting) [SocketSite]
∙ And Speaking Of Being Plugged-In To Bay Area Employment Trends… [SocketSite]
The Latest Listing Verbiage From Chelsea Park: "Prices Slashed"
The latest listing verbiage from the sales office at Chelsea Park: "Prices slashed for stunning homes in the heart of the Castro/Mission Dolores neighborhoods! $500/day bonus for quick escrows, free parking for 5 years."
At least 18% of the 39 units in the development remain available with 7 currently listed and prices reduced by up to $100,000 (9.5%). And while originally starting at $679,000, now available from $619,000 (down 8.8%).
UPDATE: Make that reduced by up to $150,000 (14.3%):
[T]he unit (#9) Socketsite lists as $949K seems to have dropped another $50K today, it's now showing $899K. The text of the listing still says "only" $949, but the top of the listing shows the reduced price.
∙ Listing: 3620 19th Street #9 (2/2.5) - $949,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 3620 19th Street #27 (1/1) - $619,000 [MLS]
∙ Chelsea Park (Phase I): On The MLS And Opening Tomorrow (1/27) [SocketSite]
Inside Air Quality: Demanding Developers Take The Responsibility
"A proposal [sponsored by Supervisor Tom Ammiano] would force developers of multiunit buildings along city streets with the heaviest clouds of pollution to make sure the air inside those facilities is clean, under legislation scheduled for a vote today by the Board of Supervisors."
"The worst air quality exists around U.S. Highway 101 and interstates 280 and 80. Sections of The City’s busiest corridors also exceed the [0.2 micrograms per cubic meter of roadway-specific particulate matter] threshold, including streets in downtown, stretches of Geary Boulevard and California Street, Lincoln Way and 19th Avenue."
∙ Filthy air clogs lungs, forces action [San Francisco Examiner]
November 17, 2008
Which Five Years Will The Next Five Most Likely Resemble Redux
As we wrote a little over a year ago:
213 Moulton is a contemporary single-family home situated down a little alley in Cow Hollow. It first sold for $545,000 in 1995. And ten years later (in 2005) it changed hands for $1,672,000. No doubt about it, that's fantastic long-term appreciation. Then again, it also changed hands in the year 2000 for $1,600,000.
We only mention it now as 215 Moulton (part of the same three home development) has been on the market for a month and has recently reduced its list price $145,000 (or 7.3%). They’re now asking $1,850,000 which includes a new full bath (added in 2006) and reclaimed living space on the ground floor.
As we wrote two months ago:
215 Moulton “in the heart of Cow Hollow” appears to have been bought back by the bank with a loan balance of $1,893,000 this past July.
And while the contract price for its previous sale in November of 2007 doesn’t appear to be public, we will note a 2008 tax assessed value of $1,800,000 for this District 7 single-family contemporary townhouse.
Listed in April prior to foreclosure for $1,895,000, reduced to $1,795,000 in July, and currently asking $1,750,000.
And as we write today: the sale of 215 Moulton closed escrow on 11/14/08 with a reported contract price of $1,725,000. That's $168,000 less than its last loan balance. And $75,000 less than its last tax assessed value.
A Quick Friends And Family Esprit Park Flip?
Investor owned! Only one at this price. Insatiable 2 level penthouse unit with vaulted ceilings and spectacular deck. Similar units priced at $1,200,000 and above.
We're guessing the sale of #S514 likely represents a "friends and family" flip. And if it is the former, perhaps soon to be "ex."
∙ Listing: 900 Minnesota #S514 (2/2.5) - $1,095,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 900 Minnesota #S503 (2/2.5) - $1,197,000 [MLS]
∙ Homes On Esprit Park: Now Offering Refundable Purchase Deposits [SocketSite]
∙ Homes On Esprit Park Receives First Certificate Of Occupancy [SocketSite]