November 19, 2008

Hanley Woods New Condo Stats For San Francisco: Values Falling

A plugged-in tipster quotes the latest Hanley Woods “New Homes Executive Summary”:

Attached Townhomes and Condominiums: San Francisco County (3rd Quarter 2008)
Change in Median Sales Price: +10.5% YOY
Change in Median Square Feet: +22.9% YOY
Change in Median Sales Price Per Square Foot: -10.1% YOY

Change in Average Sales Price: -3.7% YOY
Change in Average Square Feet: +3.7% YOY
Change in Average Sales Price Per Square Foot: -5.5% YOY

As we’ve been saying about those medians for quite some time, think mix. And for those who frequently confuse an increasing median with increasing value, think again.

UPDATE: A point of clarification and emphasis, Hanley Woods data is based on new units available for sale, not those which have already sold.

First Published: November 19, 2008 9:00 AM

Comments from "Plugged In" Readers

Only stuff in top condition is selling, distorting the ppsft numbers higher.

The fact that they are falling is frankly shocking.

[Editor’s Note: Hanely Woods data is based on units available for sale not those having already sold.]

Posted by: tipster at November 19, 2008 9:40 AM

What?? $ psf is down? Where's fluj to set us straight. I mean, this is COUNTY-wide data.

Doesn't this Hanley guy know its very micro here?

Street by street, literally.

Prices will never go down.

Posted by: Jimmy (Bitter Renter) at November 19, 2008 9:49 AM

Because fluj did nothing but sing the praises of CONDOS as a veritable paragon of strength in the San Francisco marketplace, right?

Actually, I pretty much said the opposite each and every time the subject came up.

I'd appreciate it if ....

Oh who am I kidding?

Keep up the good work.

Posted by: fluj at November 19, 2008 9:59 AM

[OK, take 2:]

Only stuff in top condition is selling, distorting the ppsft numbers higher because the listing agents are telling their clients with out of date properties to upgrade them before they list them (or shortly after), for example, 224 Twin Peaks, the subject of the next thread.

The fact that they are falling is frankly shocking.

[Editor's Note: Sorry, Hanley Woods represents new homes (but we'll agree with you with regard to existing).]

Posted by: tipster at November 19, 2008 11:22 AM

Jimmy, can you make a point without referencing Fluj?
This goes for anyone else with the same predliction. Jeebus, I'm so tired of it. Make your points and address someone only in response to something they said within the actual thread. Carrying over these personal grudges from thread to thread is b-o-r-i-n-g.

Back on topic, where all these 23% larger condos coming from?

Posted by: missionite at November 19, 2008 11:30 AM

How relevant are only new condos listed for sale for gauging the entire market?

As goes ORC (Beacon, Arterra, Millenium, etc), so goes San Francisco?

Posted by: rr at November 19, 2008 2:35 PM

I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that the current list prices for new condos are going to:

1. Continue to drop over the next year, and
2. Will be higher than the actual ppsf sale amount.

I love to state the obvious.

Posted by: weatherman at November 19, 2008 5:05 PM

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