2542 Fillmore Closes Escrow: Still A Big Win (But Still A Whoops)
The sale of 2542 Fillmore closed escrow on 8/19/08 with a reported contract price of $5,000,000.
As you might recall, the reconstructed 2542 Fillmore hit the market two months ago with a list price of $4,995,000 and buzz, received a pre-emptive offer of $5,500,000 cash with a five day close (which was refused), raised its list price to $5,250,000, and then failed to received an offer on its designated offer date.
No word on whether or not it was the party that made the $5,500,000 pre-emptive offer that picked it up for $500,000 less. But if you see a new Bentley or two rolling down Fillmore...
∙ The SocketSite Scoop On 2542 Fillmore: In A Word, Whoops. [SocketSite]
∙ Built In 1904 (But "Reconstructed" A Century Later): 2542 Fillmore [SocketSite]
Yesterday's Comment Of The Day: An All Too Common Misconception
"I saw a lot of (incorrect) comments above regarding how much tax "savings" there are in the case outlined by CAR: $132K income, $690K house, $4420 monthly payment, 5.69% rate, 10% down. So I decided to do a quick scenario analysis.
I assumed a married couple (joint filer), with no dependents. At $132K income, the tax savings are $1,030 per month. That's it. Once again, the idea that one can deflate a house payment by a marginal tax rate is wrong, wrong, wrong. Especially wrong at the relatively low income level of $132K (relative to $46K of deductible interest and prop tax)."
The Comps They Are A Changing: The Short Sale Of 2924 19th Avenue
Purchased for $1,030,000 in August of 2005, and establishing a new neighborhood comp at the time, 2924 19th Avenue (a single-family home in District 3) returned to the market two weeks ago with a list price of $988,000 and advertising “short sale.” And yesterday, the potential sale became a little shorter as the list price was reduced to $899,000.
Yes, the comps they are a changing. And once again, painting a very different picture of what's happening in the market versus any change in median sales price or even average dollars per square foot for homes sold in the neighborhood over the past three years.
∙ Listing: 2924 19th Avenue (3/2) - $899,000 [MLS]
August 20, 2008
2225-2255 Third Street: What Was (And Hopefully Is) In The Works
As the comprehensive Eastern Neighborhoods Plan moves forward, individual plans for over a hundred new projects are being taken off the shelf and dusted off. A reader asks about one such project, 2225-2255 Third Street.
From 2225-2255 Third Street's Environmental Impact Report in 2007:
The proposed project would preserve and renovate two existing historic buildings and construct three new buildings above a new below-grade parking podium. In total, these buildings would contain approximately 242,185 square feet of floor area, including approximately 179 residential units, 5,262 square feet of restaurant uses, 11,434 square feet of retail space fronting Third Street, 2,393 square feet of day-care services, a belowgrade parking garage accessed from Illinois Street with approximately 157 parking spaces, 50 bicycle spaces, and two offstreet loading spaces.
The two new structures facing Third Street would be 35 feet (three stories) tall and beyond a 20-foot setback from the property line would be 50 feet (five stories) in height. The new building fronting on Illinois Street would be 65 feet tall (six stories) in height.
Proposed as apartments with the mix being: 63 studios, 81 one-bedrooms, 30 two-bedrooms, and 5 three-bedrooms. It’s a Martin Building Company project. And the last we heard, entitlements were in the works.
Any plugged-in tipsters care to share the inside scoop and current status?
Mortgage Modifications: Short-Term Solution To Long-Term Problem?
The intended impact of lowering mortgage interest rates for IndyMac borrowers who are currently delinquent:
“We hope to keep tens of thousands of troubled borrowers in their homes and avoid the negative consequences that foreclosures can have on the broader economy,'' [FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair] said.
The unintended impact (and food for thought):
Bair's efforts may lower the value of mortgage-bond holdings by delaying foreclosures until home prices are lower, said Julian Mann, a mortgage- and asset-backed bond manager at First Pacific Advisors LLC in Los Angeles, which oversees $11 billion.
∙ FDIC Will Modify Mortgages for Some IndyMac Borrowers [Bloomberg]
San Francisco Affordability: Is C.A.R.'s New Reality Already Old?
According to the California Association of Realtors and their First Time Buyer Housing Affordability Index, 23% of San Francisco households can currently afford to purchase a home priced at 85% of the local median. Their assumptions: $693,840 purchase price, 10% down, 5.69% financing (ARM), monthly payment of $4,420 (including taxes and insurance), and a household income of $132,550.
That’s up from 18% affordability a year ago, up from 16% the year before that, and up from 9% prior to C.A.R. redefining how their index is calculated.
As you might recall, it was two years ago that C.A.R. changed their 24-year-old index to reflect a down payment of 10% (down from 20%), a monthly payment of no more than 40% of a household’s income (up from 30%), and a short-term adjustable rate mortgage (versus long-term fixed). The rational at the time:
In the more than two decades since the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® first conceived the HAI, the mortgage finance landscape has changed dramatically. The range of mortgage products available to buyers as well as underwriting criteria has changed.
C.A.R. developed the new index measuring affordability for first-time home buyers to better reflect the realities of today’s real estate market.
Now about the new new realities and underwriting criteria two years later (today)...
∙ Entry-level housing affordability increases 50 percent [C.A.R.]
∙ Affordability Is Up! (But Not Really) [SocketSite]
August 19, 2008
San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In July: Up 8.0% YOY
According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco rose 8.0% on a year-over-year basis last month (609 recorded sales in July ’08 versus 564 sales in July ‘07) and rose 6.7% compared to the month prior.
Keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).
San Francisco's median sales price in July was $749,000, down 6.3% compared to July ’07 ($799,000), but up 3.1% compared to the month prior. In terms of mix, we see the median being weighed down by the recording of Below Market Rate units (which is also spiking recorded sales activity) and a nominal uptick in activity in less expensive Districts (a shift of around 3% based on listed transactions).
For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in July was up 2.2% on a year-over-year basis and increased 5.7% from the month prior (7,586 recorded sales in July '08 versus 7,423 in July ’07 and 7,178 in June '08). But the recorded median sales price fell 29.3% on a year-over-year basis (down 3.1% compared to the month prior).
July sales were the highest for any month since June 2007 and marked the first annual sales gain for any month since January 2005. However, last month's sales still fell 22 percent short of the average July sales total since 1988, when MDA DataQuick's statistics begin, and were the second- lowest for a July since 1995.
Foreclosure resales -- homes sold in July that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months -- made up 33 percent of all resales. That was up from 29.9 percent in June and 4.2 percent in July 2007. Foreclosure resales ranged from 4.6 percent of the resale market in San Francisco to 65.9 percent in Solano County.
At the extremes, Santa Clara recorded a 13.1% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (a loss of 250 transactions) and a 16.4% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 30.3% increase in sales volume (a gain of 502 transactions) but a 41.6% drop in median sales price (think foreclosures).
UPDATE: While the numbers are above, it’s worth highlighting the impact of foreclosures on sales volume last month. Not counting the resale of foreclosed properties, sales volume in the Bay Area actually dropped 28.5% from 2007 to 2008 (versus the 2.2% increase referenced above). And in San Francisco, we estimate the increase in year-over-year recorded sales volume for non-foreclosure properties to be closer to 4% (versus the 8% referenced above).
555 Mission Rock: Yesterday, Today And Tomorrow (And A Recap)
∙ An Overview Of Mission Bay [SocketSite]
∙ Neighbors In South Mission Bay (555 Mission Rock Street?) [SocketSite]
∙ 555 Mission Rock Apartments: Additional Details And Timing [SocketSite]
∙ Projects: 555 Mission Rock [Urban Housing Group]
The Hayes (55 Page): Current Pricing, Incentives And A Reduction
Current list prices for The Hayes (55 Page) above. And while developers do prefer to offer “incentives” (currently “up to” $25,000 at The Hayes, up from $20,000 in March) rather than to lower prices (it helps hide any reductions and keeps the comps up), we will note that 55 Page #611 was originally listed on the MLS at $599,000 (versus $579,000 above).
∙ The Building Through The Trees: The Hayes (55 Page) Opens Up [SocketSite]
August 18, 2008
Then And Now And Coming Soon: 1391 Clayton Street By The Numbers
Not yet officially listed (nor inventory), but coming soon and testing the waters at a price of $2,795,000. The all new 1391 Clayton Street boasts one wine cellar, two decks and two master suites, a total of four bedrooms, and a four car garage.
UPDATE: Additional insight from a plugged-in reader:
I live two blocks above this place and have watched it from the start. About 3 weeks ago one of the guys doing the stone work on the lower exterior allowed me to look inside the house. They didnt have any cabinets up in the kitchen yet but I could see the hardwood floors and the house has been fully wired. The best part of this place are is the amazing views, and from every level of the home. There is also an elevator in the home so you dont have to take all the steps. The bathrooms were done nicely. The stonework is phenomenal and the main bedrooms had seperate shower, tub, double sinks and also wired for sound. I didnt see the sauna stated on realtors site but the house had a lot of space and it might not have been completed yet. The garage is bigger than 4 cars so either that is where the wine cellar will be going or maybe some sort of gym or workout room. I would say you can fit 6 cars in easy.
UPDATE: And even if you're not interested in the house, perhaps you'll be interested in a conversation about the siding.
Four Years Of District 4 Equity Yet Pre-Foreclosure After Four Months
Purchased for $1,750,000 in May of 2004, 10 Fernwood Drive in Monterey Heights returned to the market almost four months ago asking the same.
Three months ago the list price was reduced to $1,650,000 where it currently stands after having been reduced down to as low as $1,550,000 for a period in between. Still available and advertising “Pre-Foreclosure Opportunity.”
Bets as to whether or not the sale of this "apple" will tell a very different story about what's happening in this market with respect to appreciation (or rather depreciation) versus the trends in median sales price and average dollars per square foot for sold properties in District 4 over the past four years?
∙ Listing: 10 Fernwood Drive (4/3.5) - $1,650,000 [MLS]
JustQuotes: Potential For Below-Market-Rate Housing Priority
"Descendants of people displaced during the redevelopment of San Francisco's Western Addition and Hunters Point decades ago would be given first priority for the city's affordable housing under a measure pending before city leaders.
The proposal, which is scheduled for a vote by San Francisco's Board of Supervisors on Sept. 9, would give housing reparations citywide to people forced out of the Fillmore area in the 1950s and 1960s and Hunters Point in the 1970s, as well as their children and grandchildren. They would be put at the top of the city's lottery system that awards much-coveted affordable housing units."
Buying Two Of Four For Under Five (37 Tioga Avenue)
We’re not buying the “[once] in a lifetime opportunity” or “below market price.” But we are buying the “clean” (and that the garden “needs TLC”). Purchased for $635,000 in February of 2006, 37 Tioga Avenue is currently shooting for a short sale and is listed for $495,000.
Listing: 37 Tioga Avenue (2/1) - $495,000 [MLS]
JustQuotes: Sue Hestor Speaks Bluntly, But Developers "Cheated?"
"Live-work owners have been whining that their neighborhoods lack parks, when it was the developers who built their homes that cheated the city." (No work in many S.F. live-work lofts; fees eyed)
SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/18/08
Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 4.3% over the past two weeks (which is typical in the weeks leading up to Labor day) and is currently running 17% higher on a year-over-year basis.
Expect to see listed inventory continue to decline over the next two weeks and then spike in the first two weeks of September.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
August 15, 2008
Avalon At Mission Bay Phase III (240 Berry) Rises Up Aside Arterra
While Arterra has opened its doors, the third phase of Avalon at Mission Bay (240 Berry) rises across the street. And for those who don’t already know, the design of what’s to be (and one sweet construction cam).
∙ Arterra (300 Berry) Update: Sales Office Onsite And Models Unveiling [SocketSite]
∙ 240 Berry: No Condos For You [SocketSite]
∙ Avalon At Mission Bay Phase III (240 Berry) Starts Its Ascent [SocketSite]
QuickLinks: San Francisco Gets Less Surreal, Goldman More Mortal
∙ Carol Lloyd bids Surreal Estate Good-bye [SFGate]
∙ Goldman, JPMorgan May Prove 'Mortal' as Earnings Drop, UBS Says [Bloomberg]
When Being “Priced Out Of The Market” Is A Blessing In Disguise
A first-time buyer across the bay picks up a “three-bedroom, two-bath house in East Oakland, for $199,500. The previous owner had paid $475,000.”
Perhaps being “priced out of the market” was a blessing in disguise. The previous owner? Not so blessed.
UPDATE: And simply speaking of the East Bay (but not this neighborhood in specific):
I live in Maxwell park, West of 580 between Foothill and High and have great feelings for the neighborhood, which sees a lot less violet crime than the Laurel. (many house break-ins when school is out, though). It's a great deal considering proximity to BART, hiking, organic grocery stores and GINORMOUS lots (which the laurel does not have). Around 150K less than the laurel, 200K less than the Dimond. Great winding streets, too...
∙ Doors open for first-time home buyers [Business Times]
∙ For A Select Few First-Time Buyers Willing To Cross The Bay [SocketSite]
723 Bay Street Returns After Five Months (And Asking $155,000 More)
723 Bay Street hit the market in October of 2007 with a list price of $2,150,000 (which was subsequently reduced). And according to the MLS (and a plugged-in tipster), the sale closed escrow on 3/14/08 with a reported contract price of $1,595,000.
It's now five months later and the Las Casitas condo is back on the market and asking $1,750,000. To quote our tipster, “Am I missing something?”
∙ Listing: 723 Bay Street (2/1.5 and 1/1) - $1,750,000 [MLS]
∙ What Can We Say, We’re Suckers For A Nice Ceiling (723 Bay) [SocketSite]
∙ The Cost Of Failing To Accurately Manage (Market?) Expectations [SocketSite]
San Francisco Landlord Foreclosures: Tenant PSA And Growing Trend
"State and local laws prohibit landlords from evicting tenants or shutting off utilities [due to a foreclosure], but not all renters are aware of the rules, and not all of the entities that take control of properties try to learn them."
"The issue was virtually unheard of a year ago. The San Francisco Tenants Union had to circulate a memo to its counselors earlier this year because few had ever encountered it before.
The exact number of tenants dealing with the aftermath of a landlord foreclosure is difficult to ascertain. Three tenants groups contacted by The Chronicle reported around 130 cases this year, but most counselors believe that many more tenants aren't contacting the organizations. What is known is that lenders foreclosed on 492 homes in San Francisco during the last year and a half, according to DataQuick Information Systems."
∙ Foreclosure's hidden victims [SFGate]