1487 McKinnon Avenue and Lot
Fifteen months after hitting the market, 1487 McKinnon has closed escrow. A sales recap for the small (900 sqft) single-family house (on a larger lot) since the year 2000: sold for $162,500 (5/00); sold for $200,000 (12/00); sold for $353,000 (5/04); refinanced for $468,000 (8/05); “sold” to the bank for $400,000 (11/07).
A (possibly incomplete) recap on the listing: hit the market for $579,000 (4/07); reduced to a “below market value” (sound familiar?) price of $559,000 two weeks later; “sold” to the bank (11/07 – see history above); returns to the market for $369,900 (1/08); reduced to $269,900 (4/08) and then to $214,900 a week or so later.
The reported contract price on 7/11/08: $190,000. A good buy at under $200,000 as far as we’re concerned (considering the underdeveloped lot). And we can’t help but highlight a reader’s comment from three months ago: “Not that Zillow is the benchmark of accurate appraisals, but their zestimate for this house is now $499K. Down from the peak of $618K.” Whoops.
UPDATE: A quality comment from a plugged-in reader in the neighborhood:

House is “unique”. First floor level has ceiling height of about 6 ft but with structural beems that I hit my head on. I am 6 ft tall. Upstairs not bad size bedrooms and bath. VIEWS of GG Bridge towers, twin peaks, lots. Very nice views actually. The house was build on the very end of the 25×75 lot. 25 deep by about 15 wide. Not sure if you could tear down the house. Talked to a guy in planning dept. and the entry level space is legal. If you could not tear it down, probably easy to convert to garage and build on rest of the lot.

I live a few blocks away. Better than average for Bayview. No corner liquor stores or projects immenently close. But there was a murder earlier this year on McKinnon between this house and 3rd Street. Probably gang related, but who knows. It is a drive into your garage and stay kind of area right now.

In the long run this will be an interesting view lot for someone. But not sure if a builder would be wise to invest in it now for a business proposition.

Oh, and the “zestimate” as of ten minutes ago: $460,500.
Now 51% Below “Below Market Value!” In Bayview (And It Lasted!) [SocketSite]
Back On The Market And Below “Below Market Value!” In Bayview [SocketSite]
Reductions On Two Two-Bedrooms Approaching Two Months [SocketSite]
For A Select Few First-Time Buyers Willing To Cross The Bay [SocketSite]

44 thoughts on “1487 McKinnon Finally Sells In July 2008 (At A December 2000 Price)”
  1. I agree that this was probably a good deal at $190k, despite the bad neighborhood. If the buyer holds long they could really profit. The neighborhood and the property’s condition probably can’t get much worse.
    Interesting to see the far extremes of the market posted today. This and 2157 Green are several sigmas away from the norm.

  2. House is “unique”. First floor level has ceiling height of about 6 ft but with structural beems that I hit my head on. I am 6 ft tall. Upstairs not bad size bedrooms and bath. VIEWS of GG Bridge towers, twin peaks, lots. Very nice views actually. The house was build on the very end of the 25×75 lot. 25 deep by about 15 wide. Not sure if you could tear down the house. Talked to a guy in planning dept. and the entry level space is legal. If you could not tear it down, probably easy to convert to garage and build on rest of the lot.
    I live a few blocks away. Better than average for Bayview. No corner liquor stores or projects immenently close. But there was a murder earlier this year on McKinnon between this house and 3rd Street. Probably gang related, but who knows. It is a drive into your garage and stay kind of area right now.
    In the long run this will be an interesting view lot for someone. But not sure if a builder would be wise to invest in it now for a business proposition.

  3. This property is an example of what I was saying in the other thread. District 10 saw some of the biggest runups in the county. This one 350% + at one point? And as to it being a good buy now, has it really come all the way down to 190K for a double size lot property? I doubt it. Remember there was a murder right in front of the house not too long ago.

  4. I actually get angry that someone would insult my intelligence by trying to sell me that shack for $579,000.

  5. Well,
    Some clever fellow managed to extract $115K of free money while saddling some banks with a loss of $278K.
    Yup, those bank executives deserve every penny they make.

  6. And there you have it. 2000/2001 pricing. In the other thread, I said that such pricing is a reasonable approximation for where the Bay Area is going. This one just got there a little faster! 🙂 (As one would expect. Bayview, foreclosure, funny ceiling height, etc., etc., but presumably ALL these problems were there in 200/2001 as well, except I guess for the foreclosure…)
    BTW, there are a number of houses in St Francis/Monterey Heights (the areas of SF that I am very familiar with) that would only fetch 2002 pricing, and I’d say that it would be pretty rare for any of the good houses there to fetch higher than early- to mid-2004 pricing absent siginificant renovations/additions, etc.

  7. I wonder if we will start to see shockingly low selling prices in more prime areas for properties with “problems” (i.e., tenant-occupied, tiny lots, busy streets).

  8. Per MLS and Property Shark records, this will be the 10th time that this property has changed hands since 1990 (and 6th since 1999). We now have a data point for a return to 2000 pricing (sales occured in 6/1999 at $95.5K, 5/2000 at $162.5K, and 12/2000 at $200K. It is hard to fathom that they were seeking nearly $600K for this just a year ago.

  9. It’s going to be tough to use this as a comp for anything though. It’s in a bad neighborhood. It has layout issues. It’s on a double lot. And it’s a foreclosure.
    Not many houses that compares to.

  10. At ANY price I do not see the economical benefit of buying there.
    – Bayview will stay depressed for a long time. Not many foold will jump in after what has happened in the past 2 years. And let’s not forget that they found a dead guy close to that place earlier this year.
    – Seeing livable places sell in the 300s (200s soon?) what kind of rebuild/flip can you do with any house? building a house will cost 100s including permits and the resale value is just not there.
    I wonder what the owner has in mind.

  11. Focusing on the price obscures the fact that this property burned and churned its way through at least $60,000.00 in fees and commissions over the past eight years.
    What a waste.

  12. Also per PropertyShark, it looks like a Bear Stearns fund holds the mortgage – so the taxpayers will likely be the ultimate losers here.

  13. This begs the question; how much is your credit worth? $100K, $200K, $500K, a Million? How much is it worth to ruin and destroy your credit for the foreseeable future. A well orchestrated scheme with several homes in “play” could easily net someone upwards of a million dollars back in the days.
    I know of plenty of immigrants who could care less about their credit and were offered this 100% financing who would gladly scheme along for this kind of money. I’ve heard of cases where they did this with dumps in Sacramento, Central Valley, and deep East Bay where prices have been sliced 50%. This money could last a lifetime where they are from.
    It makes me angry.
    How the hell could this be allowed to happen? I’m working my azz off, saving every penny, diligently investing, while this scum gets away.
    Who pays?

  14. There are always people who will scam any system. It has nothing to do with them being “immigrants” or not.

  15. Thank goodness for MapJack you don’t need to risk your life to drive to see where this actually is. I am still curious how this has a “Golden Gate Bridge towers view”? Interesting to note Google Earth does not even give streetviews of this street or immediate neighborhood. Perhaps the crew decided not to take images there for their own safety?
    [Editor’s Note: Having been to the house, we can attest that it’s neither paradise nor a war zone (and there are views).]

  16. Who pays?
    Wait for 1-2 years and you’ll see:
    – repealing of the Bush tax cuts
    – increase in property taxes
    – increase in federal and state taxes
    We cannot inflate our way out of this. Eventually we’ll have to pay for the fake 2002-2007 growth.
    Just remember that if you’re liquid you’ll be able to profit from the situation and take the pendulum on the way back.

  17. The immigrant myth is just that, a myth. I know (and knew) English ex pats pulling down mid six figure salaries who are and were dismayed at not being able to pull credit together. This is true now and it was true before August 2007.
    No. The problem was with good ole fashioned red white and blue operators.

  18. I take back the comment regarding immigrants, it just happened to be true in this one case.
    Most immigrants are hard working and have no clue how to begin scamming the system to this degree.
    My apologies.

  19. “It has nothing to do with them being “immigrants” or not.”
    Well, in purely economic terms, I’d agree. Human nature is probably pretty invariant as to race/immigration status when it comes to greed and propensity for fraud.
    But, what if the USG was hell-bent on appeasing the race racketeers and poverty pimp activists? Lots of free government cheese for minorities:
    http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aa061902a.htm
    (Note the date of that article.)
    Couple official USG sanction of “pushing housing debt” onto minorities with corporate fears of being labeled “racist” (“redlining”, etc.) if the enforcement of credit standards led to a “disparate impact” on minorities, and it is no surprise at all that areas with a lot of minorities would see disproportionate fraud IMO.

  20. Well, clearly minority and immigrant are not the same thing. The simple fact is that this was all credit based, and in this country it takes a certain period of time in order to get the type of credit together that could have pulled off these scams. Too much time for there to have been rampant immigrant fraud. (Although I’m sure there was identity exchange and purchaser-lender-appraiser collusion in instances.)

  21. the benefit of buying this house is working 20 hours a week, spending half your life on vacation, and retiring with plenty of cash.
    minus the acres and acres of isolated soon to be torn down public housing, the mission is equally as dangerous and people seem to be falling all over themselves to live there.

  22. A mortgage broker agent friend of mine (now unemployed for close to a year) is letting two of his properties go into foreclosure. I’m pretty sure he refinanced at the top, took his profits, and is now letting them go. I always wondered how he was able to afford his M5 and Mustang. He even bought a new cherry red SC430 for his mom (all cash).
    Now I know.
    If there were requirements such as 20% down (like my parents did it), I’m sure this crisis would not have occured.
    Where is the underwriting? Are banks this stupid?

  23. Classic battle between greed and fear.
    This is what drives business, investments, relationships, love, sex, makes the world go round.
    Owners were greedy and used their house as an ATM, either based on an empty promise of continual appreciation or as a master plan of theft from equally greedy lenders.
    Banks and most importantly “mortgage lenders” which is a very loose term given how loose they were about underwriting standards were making cash flow hand over hand. Greedy profits at the time. Highly leveraged and ultimately risky profits.
    But now we are experiencing the huge swing in sentiment towards fear. Fear is what is keeping people from buying, banks from lending, and what could send the economy into a deep recession.
    The strong banks will make it and take huge chunks of market share. Financially solvent and cash rich people will also be able to get a nice piece of the pie that is Bay Area real estate for a reasonable amount.
    But it is impossible to time the bottom whether an average joe buying a house in distress or Bank of America buying Countrywide / JP Morgan buying Bear Stearns. And someone will buy WAMU..just wait.
    At some point greed will overtake fear and there will be upward momentum. We all know that. But when is that turning point going to be?

  24. “… and in this country it takes a certain period of time in order to get the type of credit together that could have pulled off these scams.”
    In 2005 all it took to get a 125% neg-am NINJA loan was a pulse.

  25. “In 2005 all it took to get a 125% neg-am NINJA loan was a pulse.
    Oh really? You didn’t have to have any credit history at all? I doubt it.

  26. “Where is the underwriting? Are banks this stupid?”
    having gone thru the real estate financing process in so many of its forms (individual, multi-party,llc, corp, fractional) i always suspected that it was NOT as easy to scam as many assume. and that is true if you want primo, low cost, low rate loans.
    but, as diemos so eloquently said ” One person’s waste was another person’s salary “…and i bet the true scammers were on the banking/mort.brokering/MBS side selling expensive dreams w/no money down ((or magic yield, still AAA rated). predatory lending biiiig time and selling it to pension funds/orphans, widows, you name it.

  27. fluj,
    “Oh really? You didn’t have to have any credit history at all? I doubt it.”
    Well, I’ve got two anecdotes on this. Believe them if you choose!
    First, I was talking with the agent who was selling 414 Foerster in mid-March (it was the weekend of the Bear Stearns bailout and he and I had a good talk about it). He surmised that the original sale of the house ($770K in 2006) was fraudulent and involved $100K cash back, but he thought $670K as in line for the neighborhood at that time. I said it was probably more cash back because someone wouldn’t “ruin his credit” for $100K, and “what kind of moron would pay $670K for a fixer in Sunnyside”. The agent laughed and said, “if he used his real social security number”. He confirmed that banks were not even checking ss #’s before loaning 100% LTV on inflated SF properties.
    Second, a nanny that my wife and I knew *very* well – together with her 20-something granddaughter who had been in the US without any documents for all of 18 months – “bought” an SFH in the Mission. Together, the two did not earn more than $40 or 45 per hour – I know for a FACT. The nanny did not have sufficient credit to obtain a cell phone (she had to put down a $400 security deposit on a 1-year Verizon plan), again something I know for a FACT.
    diemos is right here. The amount of fraud was breathtaking, and will become clearer as this all unfolds.

  28. bought” an SFH in the Mission. Together, the two did not earn more than $40 or 45 per hour – I know for a FACT. The nanny did not have sufficient credit to obtain a cell phone (she had to put down a $400 security deposit on a 1-year Verizon plan), again something I know for a FACT.
    diemos is right here. The amount of fraud was breathtaking, and will become clearer as this all unfolds.
    Dude, sorry. But no. No. Not straight up. I know too many very solidly earning couples, think banking, think high levels of anglo-american type jobs, who were turned away.
    If that happened, it happened coupled with a degree of fraud. And I don’t doubt it happened.

  29. der fluj,
    the aha moment for me was realizing that if you were looking at really crappy/expensive/junk laden financing you could find it and scam it. not so for the type of loans smart people were looking at.

  30. paco is right. The middle class was looking for the lowest rate and lowest payment for the more house.
    The products for people at the bottom were out there. They were there for purchase and refi. Somehow, I could understand giving these loans for purchases, knowing that nobody expected prices to go down, but refis? You are giving REAL money to someone who hasn’t built equity on his own and cannot prove his income? The banks had it coming.

  31. The banks?
    They sold off the loans to “investors”.
    Remember, they had 86 PHds looking at it saying downpayments and credit scores didn’t matter.
    Want to watch for the next big bubble? Look to someplace where people are convinced that 200 years worth of business experience “doesn’t matter”. When that message gets sold, jump on the stocks of the people selling that message. They will make all the money. The people buying the “doesn’t matter” message will make some of the money, but will be left holding the bag when it turns out to be false.
    As I’ve said before: homes had a real increase in value and so their price went up to reflect that value. The value was the entrance fee to a scam that homes provided. You had to have one to play. That value is now gone, and prices are beginning to reflect that.
    This home had more value for its scam function than it had as a residence. Good for the person who bought it for figuring that out and taking advantage of it. Whether they were immigrants or not, god bless America: they made a lot of money at it and they are probably going to get away with it. It doesn’t fit my moral standards, but I don’t set standards for America. The people who do didn’t seem to worry about it, and they STILL aren’t worried about it. They are trying furiously to keep that system alive.

  32. they had 86 PHds looking at it saying downpayments and credit scores didn’t matter.
    Yup. They all got trained at the “Reaganomics School”. Believing that regulation was for sissies and that G*d would make us all millionaires.

  33. Nah, nothing to do with “Reaganomics” or any particular strain of Republocrat/Demican ideology. Just plain old-fashioned siphoning of wealth from the small fry to the large fry. It’s been going on since time immemorial no doubt. Over the last few hundred years, at least in the West, it was discovered that direct slavery in order to obtain labor wealth was very costly and ultimately inefficient. Debt-slavery works so much better, and it only requires 3 simple steps.
    First, begin a process of monetary inflation, and through seizure of the henhouse by the foxes, lay the groundwork for unbridled credit inflation.
    Second, wait until human nature in all its ignorance comes to view the concept of ever-rising asset values (well in excess of any ability to grow productivity) as inevitable and continuous. At this point, people will be willing to trade *enormous* quantities of their wealth (for most people in the US, since they have no stored wealth, this consists primarily of their future labor productivity) for the inflated asset. In steps the rentier/banking class here, taking an upfront spread/fee of course. (Note that this euphoria may require waiting until the generation that lived through deflation – say, in the 1930s – is on its last legs or dead.)
    Third, deflate the asset by restricting credit/money (the deflation is certain to occur in real terms, and likely in nominal terms as well). The theft is complete, and it didn’t even require all the messiness of physically enforced servitude! Done correctly, the clueless population isn’t even aware of what is happening, and in any event is so coopted in the scheme that it has no real will to resist…. at least until things get so bad – and that is what TPTB is trying to prevent!

  34. “it was discovered that direct slavery in order to obtain labor wealth was very costly”
    Maybe like 147 years ago, or so? “Discovered” ?

  35. Well, sure fluj, if your only frame of reference is slavery in the US, which of course (officially) ended during the Civil War and constitutional amendments at that time. But you should know I always take the *broader* view of everything. In the “West”, I’m thinking of the institution of serfdom (really, indistinguishable from “slavery” in most salient respects – no freedom of movement, enforced labor, although only “attachment” to real property versus *being* property I guess), which ended in England in 1600s, but persisted in France until 1789, and in Russia until 1861. I think even the Austro-Hungarians didn’t end it until the revolutionary late 1840s, and some say not until WWI! In any event, I am sure you will admit, central banks and fiat money especially are much better at maintaining control than the old landed gentry!

  36. Satchel,
    I agree on just a small part of your post. The “siphoning of wealth from the small fry to the large fry”.
    This is what has happened in the past 20 years. But I’ll disagree on the “slavery” part. This is a democracy after all and we have quite a few proofs that “we the people” have some power. We are experiencing a level of health and well being unheard of. It wouldn’t happen in the society you are talking about.
    What you are saying was partly true in Dicken’s times, but the fear of revolt pushed for more social justice and we are all the proof of that, nicely sipping coffee at 11AM in front a computer and chatting around.
    Ever since the fear of communism died, we constituents have had less power over politicos and CEOs, and the GOP has been extremely agile at converting the uneducated masses (sorry red-state dwellers, I’m talking about a majority of you) into extreme free market believers and gun/religious nuts.
    What we have experienced these past 20 years amounts to the squeezing of the middle class.
    Now, was this middle class just an illusion to persuade people that there was social justice (a respect of the action/reaction economic rule), or was it a travesty?
    I believe a lot of wealth is being destroyed and right now it touches mainly the lower 90% of the populace, but that the “rentier” class will lose some of its wealth eventually, be it through asset depreciation or through taxation (no more Bush tax cuts if Obama gets elected). The pendulum is moving quickly and we can see it going back full speed.

  37. Satchel,
    I agree on just a small part of your post. The “siphoning of wealth from the small fry to the large fry”.
    This is what has happened in the past 20 years. But I’ll disagree on the “slavery” part. This is a democracy after all and we have quite a few proofs that “we the people” have some power. We are experiencing a level of health and well being unheard of. It wouldn’t happen in the society you are talking about.
    What you are saying was partly true in Dicken’s times, but the fear of revolt pushed for more social justice and we are all the proof of that, nicely sipping coffee at 11AM in front a computer and chatting around.
    Ever since the fear of communism died, we constituents have had less power over politicos and CEOs, and the GOP has been extremely agile at converting the uneducated masses (sorry red-state dwellers, I’m talking about a majority of you) into extreme free market believers and gun/religious nuts.
    What we have experienced these past 20 years amounts to the squeezing of the middle class.
    Now, was this middle class just an illusion to persuade people that there was social justice (a respect of the action/reaction economic rule), or was it a real long term change?
    I believe a lot of wealth is being destroyed and right now it touches mainly the lower 90% of the populace, but that the “rentier” class will lose some of its wealth eventually, be it through asset depreciation or through taxation (no more Bush tax cuts if Obama gets elected). The pendulum is moving quickly and we can see it going back full speed.

  38. Ha ha, satchel, this just proves how little you know. Unlike the 1300s, the serfs can now file *bankruptcy*, to avoid the debts and get their labor back from the bankers and others to whom it was indentured!
    It’s not like congress closed that loophole about two years ago, just before the noose was fully tightened around the serf’s necks. If they had, you’d be right and the serfs would be screwed!
    Oh. Wait a minute, I guess they did…

  39. The middle class played the game all the way and are getting skewered. The run-up in house prices made the middle class house poor. They got into debt up to the gills to maintain the illusion of a lifestyle. In the mean time, salaries are going down when corrected with inflation, thanks to global wage arbitration.
    But I think things tend to correct (and often over-correct) and I believe they will. The economy depends on what the middle class produces and consumes. An economy that lives on 2 classes only cannot really thrive. You can live in your mansion on PH but your servants will not bring you better health care or more efficient technology to name only 2 domains dominated by the middle class.
    The way I see the correction happening:
    We will probably have a mild recession, followed by a stagnation. Job losses will be real but not crippling. Stocks and houses will be cheap for a few years.
    The middle class will have to save (they already started) and snatch whatever of these assets they can, and they will be richer for it in the long run.
    This is the return to sanity that will lead to sustainable growth and everyone is poised to profit from it.

  40. Why are you decieved that cities get better? San Francisco is anti-industry, anti-jobs — why would the hood get better? Why wouldn’t it just as possibly get worse? $100k might seem high in hindsight. $20k might be more in line with the value.

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