SocketSite™

That location leaves something to be desired.

me likee

First off, I love it. Gorgeous. Even if the existing furniture is a little monochromatic.

But Michael E is right. In this general area, I think I'd rather have 1150 Folsom #1. A little smaller, but 2 bedrooms, 3 floors, and $300K less (now listed at $795K).

superman and supergirl can only survive inside their ice fortress as we look outside and see all the homeless carrying shopping carts of kryptonite.

They're asking way too much for that area (@595.34 /sqft). The drug related crime is out of control around there:

ASSAULT 60
BURGLARY 11
DRUG/NARCOTIC 181
LARCENY/THEFT 71
ROBBERY 29
SEX OFFENSES, FORCIBLE 5
VANDALISM 30
VEHICLE THEFT 20

Grand Total 407

Compare it to 1150 Folsom (@480/sqft) :

ARSON 1
ASSAULT 26
BURGLARY 10
DRUG/NARCOTIC 19
LARCENY/THEFT 75
ROBBERY 4
VANDALISM 11
VEHICLE THEFT 14

Grand Total 160

That kitchen is AWFUL and completely out of character for the other decor.

has this property been for sale before? or for sale off of MLS?

reason I ask: ORH is only half up in the picture of "the view"...
either they just used an old photo, or this place was for sale before...

RE: superman and supergirl can only survive inside their ice fortress as we look outside and see all the homeless carrying shopping carts of kryptonite.

Posted by: Spencer at April 18, 2008 2:08 PM
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My response -

I don't think kryptonite in homeless shopping carts is the worry. The violent drug users is more what the worry is..

For that price, in that area? Sorry... uh uh.
I'd rather get 200 Brannan or 650 Delancey.

The fact is, this price is now out of reach for most borrowers. Someone who nine months ago could have easily qualified for 1.5M with nothing down will now only qualify for 775K, and only after they save up 70K for a downpayment.

That's why volumes are evaporating. And interest rates are shooting up. They are up .375 in the last few days and Libor is absolutely skyrocketing. Mortgage interest rates are now HIGHER than they were a year ago. And rising.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/

In another year or two, places like this will be selling for 3/4 of this price. By the bank.

Places like this listing will be hit the hardest.

http://mrmortgage.typepad.com/

I agree that the difficulty of obtaining mortgages is one reason volume is down.

Other than that you are completely wrong in everything you said. Just because volume is down shouldn't mean rates are up. The people getting loans nowadays can actually afford them. In a perfect world, given the discount windows, that would make rates lower. Banks would be trying to compete for reliable borrowers.

Instead, interest rates are up because banks are trying to get as much money back as possible. They are taking their recently discounted fed monies and whatnot and sticking it to the consumer to try to regain some ground, period.

And LIBOR is skyrocketing? Why would you say that? The very chart you link to shows LIBOR down 2.5 points from a year ago.

This just goes to show, Tipster, that you shoot from the hip in a bearish fashion. Very little of what you say has any credence.

LIBOR is up, fluj. It was around/below 2.5% recently, now over 2.9% and rising. Perhaps you didn't catch the recent articles about how banks have been reporting artificially low LIBOR rates, which prompted the jump?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/libor-rate-jumps-again-banking/story.aspx?guid=%7BD8BDA1F8-2C69-48F5-B189-2D95A8C4C877%7D&dist=hplatest

LIBOR has edged up slightly in the last few weeks, sure. The guy said "LIBOR is absolutely skyrocketing" ? Look at YOY. It has rather plunged. He said skyrocketing, absolutely. Most people who have taken out equity lines (ones that haven't been scaled back by greedy banks, mind you) are actually happy right now.

that area is gentrifying quickly- several new construction bldg's nearby. also alot of great, relatively new restaurants nearby (little star, bodhi, conduit, ec.) also cool cafe coming in (4 barrel). lot's of peole love this area of the mish. i have a triplex nearby that is getting a major expansion and renovation. the area has changed dramatically in the last 2-3 years. bottom line: cha-ching!

"that area is gentrifying quickly- several new construction bldg's nearby. also alot of great, relatively new restaurants nearby (little star, bodhi, conduit, ec.) also cool cafe coming in (4 barrel). lot's of peole love this area of the mish. i have a triplex nearby that is getting a major expansion and renovation. the area has changed dramatically in the last 2-3 years. bottom line: cha-ching!"

Um, hello, we are in a downturn.

Spencer,

I agree. In a downturn this area will be one of the first affected. The crime in this area is already out of control and it will most likely get worse - 60 assaults, 5 forcible sex crimes and 191 narcotic arrests in the last 90 days!

so, ummm, why have prices in this area of the mish gone UP in the last 2-3 years? beacuse 2-3 years ago it was a forgotten area, and more recently it has seen several new developments and the restaurabts i mentioned. lots of tic's and condos have sold well here in smaller bldg's too.

this area has been a great investment for me since buying a multi unit bldg there 3 years ago.

those crime stats are suspect, as i'm sure they incl. mission st between 16 and 18th st., which is where all the SRO's and crack ho's are. around 14th st and eastwards of mission it's alot quieter.

you don't have to like the area, i frankly don't give a shit. what matters is that many other people really like it.

"this area has been a great investment for me since buying a multi unit bldg there 3 years ago."

It WAS a great investment, if you sold last year. Try selling it now. The fact is, the area around 1335 Mina is one of the least desirable in district 9 and the district as a whole is down.

If you think the crime stats are suspect, do your own search - http://www.sfgov.org/site/police_index.asp

In the last 90 days within 1 block (1000 ft), there have been 179 crimes - 32 assaults, 61 drug related and 5 forcible sex offenses.

Ignorance is bliss.

you don't know what you're talking about. do you own anything there? i didn't think so. the mish has not gone down in value in the last 12 mo's:

Condos:
District 9 Mar-07 Mar-08
Number of Sales 52 36
Median Selling Price 679,000 772,000
Average DOM 60 55

and , you cannot make any comments on my bldg, cause you have NO IDEA what i paid for it, what it's present value is, the rent roll, etc. give me a break!

as to this specific pocket of the mish, the fact is that there have been several SUCCESSFUL new condo developments and restaurants that came in the last 3 years. the fact is that it's a popular area, and people want to buy, as well as rent here. since '05, this specific area has probably gone up more than the mish in general.

you can speculate all you want, but i make my living from my RE investments, and this has been a great area to invest in.

the crime stats listed above are total shit! what was the date range? how big an area radius was chosen?

i did 90 days (the max avail) for 14th st and natoma.

1000 foot radius yielded 86 crimes (all crimes selected.)

500 foot radius yielded only 13!

why. as i said in my previous comment, BECAUSE MOST OF THE CRIME IN THE MISH IS CENTERED AROUND 16TH ST AND MISSION ST!!

14 & 15th st are far enough away to have a totally different vibe to them. that is why developers put several nice condo complexes in the area recently, selling for $700k to $800k/unit.

this is a great pocket of the mish.

You’re right about one statement I made, I do not know your property. However, I do own property in district 9 and I do know what I’m talking about. First off, you can not list the entire district 9 stats for March and use it for the basis of your argument for a property in the inner Mission. District 9 not only covers the Mission but also the much more desirable neighbors of east and west SoMA, Potrero and Bernal.

Again, you keep referring to the last 3 years as basis for your argument that property values have increased. Prices went up and now prices are going down. If you spend any time on this site, besides defending your property, you will see that prices have indeed fallen. In many cases, prices have fallen well below ’05. Even the bullish of us have now acknowledged this fact. So I ask you, why anyone would spend almost 600/sqft around 1335 Minna when they can now pick up a property in a better neighborhood of district 9 for the same price (even less - see 1150 Folsom). Wake up - it’s only going to get worse when the Alt-As begin to expire. I will bet 1335 Minna will either be reduced substantially or be taken off the market.

As for the crime stats, I listed my last search criteria - 1000 feet from 1335 Mina Street within the last 90 days, which barely touches 16th Street and yet yielded 179 crimes - 65 violent. Most of the crime appears to be on 15th Street which is a 1/2 block from this residence. A 500 ft search does not provide an accurate picture of the neighborhood. The fact is that this area is blanketed with projects and low end units, which fosters crime.

I’m glad you like your place and I do hope your property value goes up because that means that mine have gone up as well.

i guess we'll just have to agree to disagree then. i agree that select parts of bernal are 'better' (i.e. more expensive) than the mish, but alot of bernal, namely south-east, is not great. and it's isolated. unlike the mish which hooks up to noe, castro, soma, etc. centrality helps. same thing goes for soma and potrero.

if anything, the mish has been doing as well or slightly better price-wise in the last 1-2 yrs than those areas. did you see the new condos on shotwell/20th? or the new ones on folsom/20th? million dollar condos are standard fare in the mish now. now that's gentrification.

the mish goes block by block, and if you have a nice property on a decent block, it's a great long term rental investment. tons of people want to live in this 'hood, as you know. i think it's a great place to invest, even now (w/the usual disclaimer: given a decent location/property/price.)