If you purchased a single-family home in 2006 in District 2, or more specifically around 27th Avenue in Parkside, there’s a decent chance that 2100 27th Avenue was one of your, your agent’s, or your appraiser’s “comps.”
Unfortunately 2100 27th Avenue is now owned by the bank. And while the home was purchased in May of 2006 for $805,000, it’s back on the market today for $674,628.
No word on where to file for your rebate (should it sell for less than $805,000).
∙ Listing: 2100 27th Avenue (2/1) – $674,628 [MLS]
Somewhere between $425k and $550k sounds about right, or at least closer. Let’s see how far down this rabbit hole goes.
You can find additional information on this property here: 2100 27th Avenue on PropertyShark.com
We ran a comparable search for properties that sold in the last 6 months, in a quarter mile radius, and D building class, and got a PPSF of about $551, which would calculate the value of the property at around: $570,836. It appears to have a nice view of some trees across the street which probably adds some value.
You can try your own comps search from the property report.
But .. this is district 2. Prices don’t go down! Ever!! Where’s fluj? I predict a bidding war on this one…
The listing says it needs TLC. Not sure it should sell for list.
@Jimmy:
Channelling fluj…
“I never said RE goes up…you guys are morons…for every property down I could show you one up….trust me.”
How’d I do?
Two things. You guys do very much love to put words in my mouth. Second, you very much enjoy seizing upon a possibly negative anecdote while decrying anyone who does the opposite. Well read it and weep, soothsayers.
There are 15 Parkside homes on the market. There have been 15 sales since the first of the year. There are two properties with active contingencies, and there are five Parkside properties in pending status.
So that’s a 1 to 1 sold ratio since the first of the year (at 562 a foot and 837K average, no less). Plus five pendings and two active sales?
I would say the pendulum is swinging toward a fairly brisk market out there.
“I would say the pendulum is swinging toward a fairly brisk market out there.”
lol – someone is a little out of touch with reality….
How about a positive anecdote just for fun?
2126 35th Avenue. A typical 2-1, straight to pending status yesterday after a mere 13 days on the market (and that DOM was not manipulated, the property history attests.)
A full basement with expansion potential, so the 1125 feet, 721 a foot measurements aren’t exactly right. Then again, many of the properties out there have oversize L shaped garages anyway. So many buyers are perceiving the same potential house to house. It went straight to pending, 818K asking, yesterday.
On the one hand, I admit surprise that Parkside is doing as well as it is. On the other hand, ~800K is affordable to a sizeable chunk of the San Francisco populace. See my recurring point about Bernal, Glen Park, Potrero, Noe (sort of), Richmond, Sunset ….
Smarty, did you not read what I posted about what actually has transpired in Parkside since the first of the year?
$805k for a 2/1 fixer in Parkside, in such bad shape that no interior pics could be shown, seems like a crazy price for this place. In terms of this being used as a comp, were there other fixers in Parkside going for $800/square foot in 2006?
This looks priced right, give or take 5%. I don’t know what the fuss is all about.
Fluj,
Agreed, I think a lot of the “San Francisco populace” can afford “buying” a 800K home.
But can they afford “owning” it?
Once the fixer upper is straightened up, they end up with a $1-million 1940s glorified poorhouse with 6K+/month and a 45-minute commute in this Daly City-like area.
But the power of he Jonesing effect has no limits. Or does it?
“There are 15 Parkside homes on the market. There have been 15 sales since the first of the year.”
So there is a 4 month supply of homes on the market. For SF, that’s hardly “brisk”.
The good news is that there is plenty of inventory out there for the remaining buyers to choose from, and no one needs to feel rushed.
It’s not the central valley, but it isn’t “Offers due Tuesday” either.
I did a search on Realty Trac for zip code 94116 and found over 500 homes in pre-foreclosure. Fluj says the market is “fairly brisk”. If that’s true, why are there so many owners in distress in that neighborhood?
Let’s not pick apart my language, OK? “Brisk” “pendulum” … whatever. I hadn’t had my coffee yet 🙂 Is it a four month supply when there is again another half as many in contract? Plus, three of those properties hit the market within the last two days.
And “plenty of inventory” ? Six of those 15 properties are over a million dollars. Three of them are under 1100 feet. Only four of the 15 appear to be stalefish. Clearly Parkside is not a bad market at all.
@ burble, all these toys only show small parts of the picture. Drawing a direct correlation between the market and however many properties have come in and out of NOD status within an unknown timeframe is pretty irrelevant.
I’m talking about what is or is not on “the market.” The MLS (the best and most complete toy of the bunch) shows that only eight properties have been withdrawn or expired since the start of the year. Also, 94116 includes what exactly, because we are talking Parkside? And in any market, at any given time, how many properties have missed two months of payments? How many of those payments have been made since the Realty Trac last updated?
But mostly, why assume that folks missing payments want to sell? Or even need to sell? People are resourceful.
A few thoughts here…
First, thank you editor(s) for a thread on Sunset/Parkside, one of my fave parts of the city which is often overlooked (same goes for Richmond). Loved the rebate comment as well.
Second, seems like a lot of preemptive attacks on fluj. I know it’s all in good fun, but maybe we could give the guy a chance to pick up his pom poms before challenging him?
On that note, fluj, I’m curious as to which 4 screens you’re looking at today. Because I searched MLS, and there are 36 homes listed for sale in Parkside, not 15. I consider Parkside as D2, subdistricts B, D, and G. Of those 36 homes, 3 are contingent and the rest are active. If your 15 sold, 5 pending number is accurate, that’s roughly a 50% sales rate since the beginning of the year. Hardly brisk.
And these battles of the anecdotes are great fun, aren’t they? What about 2307 45th? Sold in 2005 for $686K, now on the market for $649K. Below ’05 pricing and still sitting.
I think fronzi hit the nail on the head here. I like Parkside, but it just isn’t that much nicer than living in Daly City. And median prices in Daly City have fallen around 20% or so already. Doesn’t bode well for this area.
I have an Adobe Acrobat list of NODs and NOTs up, a browser at my mail, the MLS, and Socketsite.
Parkside is area 2-D.
By the way, Dude, can I point out how disingenuous it is to take the sold and pending (neglecting the contingents) numbers I posted from only actual Parkside and then go ahead and make a point versus the numbers from three areas you erroneously lump together and deem to be “Parkside” ?
Because, uh, let’s see. THere are a litany of reasons. Starting with the fact that there are 43 sales in those areas combined since 1/1, four contingent, 16 pending? Totalling 63 out of 99?
This is not to mention the fact that TO BUYERS half of Inner Parkside has more to do with West Portal than “Parkside.” And the prices in 2-G reflect same.
The waves are circling the sand castle. First it was the Central Valley wannabe suburbia, then Alameda, Contra Costa. Marin starts to suffer. Daly is in trouble.
And now, the “inside suburbias” that are Sunset, Visitacion Valley and other Glen Parks are breaking apart at the seams.
Hang on in there, “bubblists/realists”. One day regular middle class will be able to afford this city like it used to be.
2010 will be the new 1997.
Fluj, Parkside makes up a big chunk of 94116. Forest Hill and West Portal are in there, too, but there aren’t many owners in distress in those neighborhoods.
So, we are talking Parkside. I don’t doubt that homes are selling in Parkside. What I would like to know is how a supposedly healthy market will be affected by increasing numbers of homes in some stage of foreclosure, one of which is the subject of this thread.
Agreed, fluj, on your disingenous comment. But please realize I don’t have full MLS access and can’t see the same numbers you do. In any case, thank you for checking the full stats. Because 63/99 is not 15/15.
But sales vs. listings are tangential to the discussion, really. It’s about prices and where they’re heading. I’m curious as to your take on the value provided by the person from PropertyShark?
Can anyone in the know comment on whether there is a “comp lag” effect ? Today someone running comps on this house will see what looks like a great discount because the 2007 comps use what may now might be overly inflated prices.
The idea being that the ghosts of comps past continue to haunt transactions during their validity span (6-12 months ?). Usually this is not a problem when prices change gradually, but can really distort the value of comps when prices are rapidly changing.
This lag affects comps whether the prices are going up or down. In the normal situation when prices are rising I think that people mentally figure in “lag appreciation” into prices. But does that psychology work in reverse on the way down ? Can buyers and sellers properly anticipate the magnitude of price drops ? Do sellers even want to ?
Owned by the bank, and needs fixing? How much more are we going to see that? We should come up with a name for it.
Pre-renting bitterness?
“There’s copper in them thar walls!”
foreclosure rage
loot this house
rip me up, before you go-go
“rip me up, before you go-go”
Can’t stop laughing!
From what I hear, Milkshake, appraisers are under strict marching orders to pare it down. I don’t know exactly how far back they are allowed to go these days. It probably varies bank to bank. But they definitely can’t take year old comps into consideration.
SanFronzischeme,
You looked at the numbers I presented, and yet you still make that “breaking apart at the seams” comment? And you go on and include Glen Park too?
Glen Park is practically an unqualified upward market, guy. The north slope of that neighborhood has just seen a few $~3M sales. There are 25 solds, five pendings, and seven active contingent properties in the last six months VERSUS six active properties — only two of which have even been on the market for six weeks. Those two are 196 Lippard and 542 Laidley — and they are both around 800 a foot!
Ugh.
That’s it for today folks. I’m actually more than a little annoyed now and I don’t want to get mean. Just save all the baloney for your kids lunchboxes, or something.
Thanks fluj. Incidentally, 542 Laidley was reduced by $97,000 just today.
The rules have been the same for residential appraising for decades now – SFR/condo sales should be less than 6 months old or there better be a really good reason and you are going to have to do a lot of explaining. If you do something as blatantly stupid as basing your value on year old sales at a higher value and ignore similar current sales at a lower value you can kiss your license goodbye for bias. At least that’s how it’s supposed to work, but the state’s enforcement for appraisal licensing has traditionally been pretty lax as it is difficult and time consuming to prove a bias case against an appraiser. I think we’re going to see more stringent enforcement on appraisal licensing from here out – hopefully – as there are so many clowns in this business these days that it’s giving us all a bad reputation.
I would not be too quick to predict doom and gloom. 2535 37th was listed @ 649k and sold 8 days later for 802k on 04/03/08. I was told they had twenty offers on the property.
2419 27th Ave which has been remodeled and might be a closer comp has been sitting on the market at $699,000 for over two months.
http://sfarmls.rapmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Sanfrancisco&PRGNAME=MLSPropertyDetail&ARGUMENTS=-N551737541,-N217089,-N,-A,-N13062274
2419 27th Ave is sitting on the market for two months because it has an irregular lot. The lot is literally bisected by its neighbor on Taravel in halves.
http://www.propertyshark.com/mason/san_francisco/Reports2/showsection.html?propkey=30496851
@Jim:
Don’t be fooled by the bidding war, 2535 37th Ave. went for $562/sf (per Property Shark), pretty much the norm for this area…
I would not be too quick to dismiss doom and gloom. 1895 42nd Ave sold in June of 2006 for $750K. On the market for over a month at $699K. More anecdotes, please!
@Jim:
Oh, and one more thing:
We’ve all heard of houses that go with “15-20+ offers,” and I don’t mean to impugn anyone’s credibility…but I wonder what legal liability a seller’s agent would face if they just flat lied about the volume to another agent?
I’m not an agent, but I can’t think of any repercussions from that (doesn’t affect the sale, as the offer has already been made and accepted), but perhaps others can.
2419 27th Ave which has been remodeled
Actually it is not a good comp at all
dysfunctional floorplan rear yard is restricted to five foot wide with twenty foot of the other neighbor’s yard abutting the rear of the property.
This is not at all apples for apples. By the way that property has been on and off the market and the agent is the owner trying to flip.
Stats for the nattering nabobs of negativity
District 2 as per mls
169 homes sold since 10/13/07
87 of those sold in the 0-30 dom
47 sold 31-60 dom
23 sold 61-90 dom
Price 560k to 1.875 mill
Median price 810k
Everything as per MLS. It is not the end of the world folks!! WAKE UP. Don’t believe everything you read in the paper.
100% of the price advance, as measured by the Index starting in the year 2000, will be given back.
SFX (Bay Area) went from 100 to 218.
We’ll be back at 100, by 2011.
And the people who thought such a reversion could never happen will get a lesson. After all, this is the biggest housing bust that your average person will ever see, in the USA, in their lifetime.
So don’t expect people to “recognize it.” Because no one alive has seen anything like it–or will.
–The Kid
I live in 94116. I’m in district 7. From what I can see in this part of the Zip Code, if the property is move in it sells quickly, if the price is within the realm of reality. 20something 14th Ave. 2 blocks north of me has been on the market for 2+ years but it has been wildly over remodeled for what it is…
“100% of the price advance, as measured by the Index starting in the year 2000, will be given back.
SFX (Bay Area) went from 100 to 218.
We’ll be back at 100, by 2011.
And the people who thought such a reversion could never happen will get a lesson. After all, this is the biggest housing bust that your average person will ever see, in the USA, in their lifetime.
So don’t expect people to “recognize it.” Because no one alive has seen anything like it–or will.”
“The Index” ???
[Editor’s Note: “SFX” would refer to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index.]
Yeah, that’s what I was afraid of.
It started as people talking SAN FRANCISCO neighborhoods and individual properties. It was people taking pains to research and present real, reasoned arguments about the current market. Which, the um, topic is about in the first place?
Then somebody comes along with some rote smugness.
All too tyypical here, unfortunately.