March 27, 2008
Another Modern Apple Is Up On The Noe Valley Tree: 576 30th Street
If you’re still kicking yourself for missing 576 30th Street when it was listed for $2,195,000 in October of 2006, here's a second chance. Yes, fifteen months after closing escrow for $2,125,000, it's back on the market today. And they're asking $2,195,000.
Modern. Single-family. Noe Valley. It's time to go on record or forfeit the right to write, “I told you so!”
First Published: March 27, 2008 5:58 PM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
sure, i'll go on record.
if you buy a house and then try to sell it within fifteen months you may experience trouble getting all of your money back.
Posted by: paco at March 27, 2008 6:39 PM
I have to agree with Paco (on record)
Posted by: firstname.lastname@example.org at March 27, 2008 6:45 PM
does anybody else find it surprising how many of these homes are sold and resold within 2-3 years?
there just seem to be very few homes for sale in general, and those that are for sale are often homes very recently bought.
I just think it's weird.
I can never figure out Noe, so I have no idea.
however, listening to those who seem to know, I guess I'd say that this house sells for very near asking (within 3%)
Noe is theoretically one of the fortresses of value...
that said, 30th and Castro is hardly the heart of Noe.
as for the home:
love the posterior facade, hate the front.
dislike the house, but am in love with the patio.
Posted by: ex SF-er at March 27, 2008 6:54 PM
I'm a big fan of Ross Levy's work, so discount what I say as you will.
Three houses in this part of Noe Valley sold this month at prices in this ballpark. Two were a bit larger, one significantly so, but none had 1/10th of this house's sex appeal. IMO, obviously, see above. If those less-impressive houses could sell for what they did, I wouldn't be surprised if this house finds a buyer who appreciates the style at around this price. Nobody paying $2M+ for a house today is being entirely practical.
A wild overbid seems unlikely. When I look at recent Noe Valley sales in the upper price ranges, the amounts over-asking -- if any -- are modest.
455 27th, 4bd/3.5ba, 3300sf, sold for $2,550,000 on 3/18/08, 98.27% of last listing price (totally by the numbers design, trying blandly to blend in).
549 28th, 4bd/4ba, 3100sf, sold for $2,100,000 on 3/14/08, 100% of last listing price (unassuming front, not going to challenge the neighbors, big backside addition, yawn).
2212 Castro, 4bd/3.5ba, 4000sf, sold for $3,038,000 on 3/13/08, 101.44% of last listing price (retch-inducing McMansion).
IMO IMO IMO.
Posted by: Noe 94131 at March 27, 2008 7:41 PM
$2.2M for one parking?!?!
Posted by: SC at March 27, 2008 8:21 PM
This is not the "heart of noe valley", but it's spiffy, and I predict at least one [google] bid within 5% of this asking price, as long as google stays over 400 (consistent with my lazy indicator).
So I agree with ex SFer, but want to go on record even though my prediction adds little value ;)
Posted by: dub dub at March 27, 2008 8:23 PM
not that great of a house for that sum of money.
the dining room is basically a hallway, lots of circulation thru it to get anyway. small bedrooms.
whats with the full bath off the family room?
foggy, windy area esp in summer.
north facing very shady back yard.
Posted by: noearch at March 27, 2008 8:24 PM
Street parking is pretty plentiful over here...
Posted by: "Dave" at March 27, 2008 8:46 PM
Another sucker trying to get out of the game...
Posted by: anon at March 28, 2008 7:47 AM
I like these modern homes. I don't want to live that far out of Noe though. Sells for asking despite my not believing these current house values are sustainable. The greater fools are still out there apparently. Boggles the mind.
Posted by: eddy at March 28, 2008 7:50 AM
Cool place -- no doubt about that. But this is not Noe Valley. Just as accurate (or inaccurate) to call it Glen Park. Some tech worker in the valley whose options are not under water might buy it. But if I were going to spend $2.2 million on a place, it would not be in this dull neighborhood. Many more desirable places out there in this price range.
Posted by: Trip at March 28, 2008 7:52 AM
This will sell for something just south of $ 2 mil. (1.95). Location is not ideal for a $2m plus listing. The two listings nearby on Valley languished for months at this price point. Also, the Noe/near-Noe market has changed since October 2006. See 791 27th Street - very nice place in heart of Noe with no takers at $2.7 m.
Posted by: sanfrantim at March 28, 2008 8:20 AM
My view is colored by a love of Ross Levy's work. I remember this place when it was featured in the Chron. If I had the money, I'd buy it in an instant. It's a well-designed 4 bedroom place in the City (hard to come by) and then this place apparently doesn't need any work. If I had two kids and an au pair or live-in nanny, it would be close to perfect. And while the neighborhood isn't wild and swinging for singles, it's a good family neighborhood. Sadly, I haven't the cash to buy this place. So I will venture a wild guess that this place will sell within 5% of asking.
I still don't quite get who these people are that are selling so quickly after purchasing. I guess I just hate moving so much that if I'm buying a place I'm putting down some serious roots.
Posted by: nowonderitcostssomuchhere at March 28, 2008 8:41 AM
Noe 94131 : 94131 ain't Noe, or so the 26th and Sanchez crowd has repeatedly told me. The people of Glen Park are a welcoming sort, give them a try.
Dave: Shhh about the parking already.
dub dub: Advance units of the googletard hive have been sighted, since it's sort of a rule to wear your google t-shirt out to brunch on saturday. Every saturday. We target them for later muggings.
Trip: Lay off the hood bro!! Dull is $30 0-3 Month size T-shirts on 24th street and pushy Maclaren pilots.
As for the house, that far up the hill I'd worry about the fog creeping down from diamond heights blvd in the summer. Agree with sanfrantim on the price.
Posted by: Glen Park Ranger Stu at March 28, 2008 9:08 AM
I say $3M+ because I keep hearing how NV is hot hot hot!!! :-)
Posted by: Foolio at March 28, 2008 9:39 AM
gee thanks glen park ranger for clarifying that I dont live in noe v..when did 94131 drop out of Noe?
I own my house nearby and all these years I've been assuming I live in noe v..
now what do I tell all my friends?
Posted by: noearch at March 28, 2008 10:03 AM
So if it sells for 2.195M, is that appreciation? hahahhaha
Posted by: fluj at March 28, 2008 10:27 AM
$1,700,000 after all the market is down 20% right?
Posted by: Rillion at March 28, 2008 10:42 AM
I am going to go with the %20 approximation 1.85 or not at all
Posted by: Snafu at March 28, 2008 10:53 AM
I used to live on Sanchez between 28th and 29th and it was Noe Valley except for one thing, and that was the need to go up to Diamond Heights shopping center's post office. "The flats" are oriented to Noe's second village on Church, not toward Diamond Heights or Chenery street.
Posted by: fluj at March 28, 2008 11:19 AM
fluj - you've manage to make two comments and in neither one have you demonstrated your "in the trenches" insight. What's it going to sell for?
Posted by: Michael at March 28, 2008 11:44 AM
I hereby nominate Glen Park Ranger Stu (at March 28, 2008 9:08 AM) for the "Best Post to SocketSite This Week" award.
Posted by: Walter at March 28, 2008 11:59 AM
@ Michael -- I haven't seen this one in person so I'm just going off comps and photos and who I know to be in the market right now. There are a suprising number of 2-3M buyers in the market. This property is pretty sexy. I think it compares favorably with the other current ~2M properties in Noe. It also seems superior to 8 Kronquist, which sold for 2.2M in November. So based upon all that I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it will sell for around asking and maybe slightly more. I doubt it goes for less than it last sold for.
Posted by: fluj at March 28, 2008 12:07 PM
i dont get what fluj said at all: re the post office.
you mean you never heard of the post office on 24th st? why did you "need" to go to DH?
and noe doesnt have a second village. you dont make sense.
Posted by: jlynn at March 28, 2008 12:11 PM
Because if you get a package in 94131 that is the post office where you exchange your pink slip for your package.
Noe doesn't have a second village? Um, what do you call the cluster of shops and restaurants around 30th and Church jlynn? I'm not the only one who uses that term. It is commonly referred to as Noe's second village.
Do I make sense now?
Posted by: fluj at March 28, 2008 12:21 PM
you mean you never heard of the post office on 24th st? why did you "need" to go to DH?
Because if the USPS leaves you a notice saying to pick up a package you have to go the post office for that zip code. In the case of 94131, that means you have to go up the hill to Diamond Heights. It's annoying.
Posted by: PN at March 28, 2008 12:22 PM
no it's not.
it's called outer church street.lived here now for 32 years and NO ONE I know has EVER called that area Noe's "second village" never.
Posted by: jlynn at March 28, 2008 12:29 PM
@ jlynn - if you know the 'hood as well as the rest of us, you know you have to go up the hill to DHV post office to pick up packages. As well, from where this property is located, it's easier to zip up the hill to DHV for basic needs such as post office, grocery store, drug store, etc. than haul down the hill to the main drag in NV - 24th Street. As well, everyone knows the restaurants and some shops along Church Street in NV are like a second village, especially since new places continue to spring up in this area.
Posted by: movingback at March 28, 2008 12:30 PM
I remember you from thefrontsteps, Jlynn. You have a very nice way of putting things. Good luck in all your endeavors.
Posted by: fluj at March 28, 2008 12:37 PM
@ jlynn, perhaps 32 years ago it was known as outer Church Street, but now it's called Noe Valley.
Back to topic - I agree with what some have said about this property - I am a fan of Ross Levy's as well and I think the property has a certain sexiness to it - especially once you get inside. Not so much from the front. The views are spectacular. I don't mind this location at the top of the hill, but for some it will probably be an issue. And the fog does tend to creep up on you here, more so than if you are down the hill a bit more.
Posted by: movingback at March 28, 2008 12:38 PM
I think we need defined borders and toll booths to help us all figure out what neighborhood is what.
Noe valley would definitely cost more to enter..than say..glen park..but prob the same as entering DH..but prob less than...say..Sherwood Forest...you know what I mean.
I dont know where the hell I live now.
Posted by: jlynn at March 28, 2008 12:58 PM
Notice the room picture, does the bed area looks like a bigger fireplace next to the small fire place?
Posted by: Katebear at March 28, 2008 1:09 PM
I'm betting it goes 1 to 2 percent less than what it sold for last time, neighborhood improvements essentially cancelling out market floundering.
I live at 30th and Noe, a block downhill from this place, and can honestly say I prefer it to 24th Street. We have a bunch of new restaurants like La Ciccia, Pescheria, and Toast, which have opened since this house last sold. We have Drewes Brothers and Church Street Produce, neighborhood institutions that just get better and better. At long last our new park -- the Upper Noe Valley Rec Center -- is nearly done. It's a $10 million project that includes new playgrounds, gyms, field, dogwalk, seating areas. The construction process has been painfully slow (One Rincon was built in less time) but I think the park, a full city block, will be one of the best rec centers in the city.
So I think you could argue that downtown Noe Valley -- which by the way is a leisurely 10-15 minute walk from our part of town-- has not improved one iota in the last five years while outer/upper noe has blossemed.
Posted by: JKD at March 28, 2008 2:39 PM
I agree with you on all accounts, and I live near your area as well. This part of Noe has shown lots of improvement and change..all those great new restaurants.24th st could use lots of improvement still..cleaner sidewalks, weeds and trash still gather at the base of the tiny street trees..some empty storefronts..
Can't wait for the rec center to re-open. should be great with all the new landscape and building upgrading. this is a great part of Noe V.
Posted by: dsarch at March 28, 2008 3:00 PM
fluj - I agree that this place seems nicer than 8 kronquist, but the five blocks further out negatively impact price (10-20%?). I personally love the area - I often walk my dog to Billy Goat Hill.
Also, buyers are (or should be) cautious about buying a place that was so recently purchased. No cushion in the price; and you're really exposed to market fluctuations.
Finally, I think there has been a change, however subtle, in the market psychology here in Noe since Oct 06 or Nov 07. How else do I explain why 791 27th - a showcase property a block away from 8 kronquist -- is languishing at $2.7m?
Posted by: sanfrantim at March 29, 2008 10:06 AM
yeah, maybe you're right about the location. But when I look at 27th I see a worse location ... I don't think I'm alone in that perception. On the other hand while 27th languishes, the Castro property sailed right through for over $3M. That one was between 29th and Valley -- two blocks much less walkable than 30th.
Posted by: fluj at March 29, 2008 11:06 AM
Street parking may be plentiful, but I had my convertible roof slashed open a couple of days ago right on 29th and Church. It was either the kids or the nuns :P
Posted by: robert at March 29, 2008 11:26 AM
NoeArch - you tell your friends that you've been HOPING you could pass it off as Noe Valley to justify making more $$$ in it's resale. Guess you're now only a "millionaire" in your mind. Sorry buddy, I feel for you, I really do. Time to change your name!
This home is beautiful and I am a believer that people SHOULD pay a premium for great modern design by a good architect like Levy. However, this market has ruined THAT perspective over and over again in the past 8 years as people ran out and paid millions for ANYTHING that was still standing. Quality got mixed in with crap in the rampant speculation. I'm not sure we will recover from that anytime soon.
Anyone who has lived here for more than 2-3 years has lost ALL perspective on real estate's value. We sit here speculating - using prices that NO ONE anywhere in this country or world (except maybe Hong Kong?)- would even think of using! When I moved here in the early 90s, seeing something for $300k was "shocking." By 1999, when I had a chance to buy the loft I lived in, I speculated they would ask $190k, and I was "shocked" and quickly walked when they wanted $300k. By 2001 I was looking at places that were $400k and hoping that prices would go down to $350k so that I could buy, even though $350k was a LOT of money. Now, I catch myself thinking, "Wow, a SFR for $800k - that's a DEAL! But, I can't afford $800k, so let's hope that condos fall to $500k so that I can buy." I find myself thinking those things, that is, UNTIL I talk to my aunt in Boston and hear her say, "OMG, homes have skyrocketed here to $500k! Your poor cousins had to buy a tiny house on a busy street for $275k." Until, that is, I talk to my best friend in Chicago, who (even though her and her husband easily make over $300k/yr) capped their condo search two years ago at $350k max. and now live in a brand new, two level, 2/2 with a driveway and garage that easily fits 3 cars, a beautiful park at the corner - Wicker Park, the cutest little neighborhood area that NV has nothing on a few blocks away, and a subway stop that's a 3 minute walk.
Anyone willing to go in with me at $1.1 million?
$1,102,000 = 2755sf X $400/sf (the most 2x4s should EVER be worth, even in Noe Valley (*add sarcastic tone to the "Noe Valley" part))
Posted by: rg at March 29, 2008 8:04 PM
Yes, it's in contract. And yes, it's too late to go on record (at least with any sort of credibility).
Posted by: SocketSite at April 1, 2008 4:52 PM
Wow - that was fast. We did see it this weekend - really great house.
Posted by: movingback at April 1, 2008 7:33 PM
Maybe it is time to revise the notion that south of 26th street will necessarily equal a small percentage hit. Newer Noe buyers don't seem to be troubled by that former conventional wisdom.
Posted by: fluj at April 2, 2008 10:32 AM
But of course!
As long as google stock is where it is, great houses like this anywhere near Noe Valley (and this location qualifies) will have no problems selling. Poo poo all you want!
Anyone know who bought it? I have a hunch :)
Posted by: dub dub at April 2, 2008 11:06 AM
wow . . . hope none of the naysayers on this board are representing clients in this market! That's about the worst set of predictions you could have asked for. Who knows, maybe it will come in 5% under list. Anybody want the under on that?
Posted by: Hater #1 at April 2, 2008 7:24 PM
"within 5%" includes an overbid (but unfortunately, I was not clear). ex-SF had a better prediction (within 3%).
Main point is fall 2006 prices are easy to get in Noe Valley right now, because google is at fall 2006 prices. I just added an (admittedly wide) error flag - that's all the representation you need :)
I think there's actually a 25% chance this property was sold to a current/former google employee by a current/former google employee (I have no idea, anyone know?). And remember 25% means I have a 75% chance of being wrong, so no gloating when that happens :)
Remember, though. Like our own sun, this fuel will run out someday :)
Posted by: dub dub at April 2, 2008 7:52 PM
Are you kidding me? Just a few days on the market - this place went for asking or most likely a bit above. You guys just can't stand it when someone shuts you down regarding your hell-in-a-handbasket theory about prices and why a place won't sell - whether it be price, photoshopping, or the drop in Google's stock price.
Posted by: movingback at April 2, 2008 11:33 PM
I predicted this would not close above $2million. If this sale goes through at or above asking, i'll be the first to admit I was wrong. A Noe Valley homeowner, I will be delighted as well.
Posted by: sanfrantim at April 3, 2008 12:16 PM
@ sanfrantim -I think many of us will be pleasantly surprised when this one closes escrow. With the exception of a few odd properties here and there, and even a few that were slightly overpriced from the start, Noe is still doing very, very well. I think February was a good month for the 'hood.
Posted by: movingback at April 3, 2008 1:40 PM
By the way, rg - that's an excellent valuation model you're using. If you'd like to sell me the land underneath your house for $0 I'd be happy to oblige. Hell I'll pay you twice that.
Here's a better model - value the structure at between $900k and $1.3m. Top architect and high quality construction, and hard to replicate for an average citizen given SF's idiosyncratic building regulations - this one looks like a teardown per the code, even keeping the front facade. If you want to argue the land isn't worth $1m then go for it.
Posted by: Hater #1 at April 6, 2008 10:13 AM
Hater #1 - my valuation included the lot, but thanks for being a "hater" and assuming I'd forgotten about the land. Being an architect, I often forget minor things like that.
As for your million dollar land appraisal, I'd be happy to argue with you. I suppose you're one of those people who think that $1m is JUST $1m, right? How the hell do you - with all your divine wisdom - just throw out $1m price tags on things??? Enlighten me. Did your parents teach you that, or is that a learned skill? OR, is that "value" somehow related to the commission you'd get IF it was worth that? Dirt is dirt is dirt, even in hallow San Francisco. It's NOT at a premium here, for we have come no where near density, and as far as I remember history, the gold-rush was up north, wasn't it? As an urban area with decent job market, I'd give this SF land $250k-$350k, but no more.
I don't even understand the rest of your post. "hard to replicate for an average citizen given SF's idiosyncratic building regulations - this one looks like a teardown per the code." ??? I'm lost. There is nothing non-code compliant about this house as far as I can see and I also don't see the scope as a difficult battle - but that's just the opinion of someone who has gone through the process with almost identical projects.
Posted by: rg at April 7, 2008 3:33 PM
rg, you don't happen to own any land in SF, do you? I'd be happy to pay you a 50% premium on any land at your going rate - give me a call!
(Land isn't worth what you "think it should be" - it's worth what the market will bear - which is MUCH more than the prices you quoted)
Posted by: rg checker at April 7, 2008 3:38 PM
"rg checker" - first, get your own nickname. To
add "checker" after other people's name is really
lame. If you need to feel superior by pretending to be some sort of "fact-checker" over the rest of us, stop reading and get a therapist.
No, I don't own land. But, if you think that you're going to become a multi-millionaire by paying me a half-mil for a plot, I'll go out and find some land asap. In the long run, I believe I will come out on top and you'll be the sucker.
Now, as for the "worth" of land in SF - first, the "worth" is NOT "what the market will bear." It cracks me up to hear you capitalists say that over and over and over again on here! Isn't this current crash teaching you people ANYTHING!?! What someone/"the market" pays for something is nothing more than the "last price paid" for that product. It has NOTHING to do with the "value" or "worth" of the product. Do you think that all these people upside down in their mortgages are feeling that that "market price" they paid last year is still their home's "worth?" Beyond that, look up the assessed value of the lots of some SF homes. I think that you'll find the assessed values are very often $350k-$450k. If you want to be a sucker and continue to think that SF real estate and land is worth 2006 prices, or even 2003 prices, keep drinking the kool-aid. Not my problem.
Posted by: rg at April 7, 2008 7:45 PM
Do you think that all these people upside down in their mortgages are feeling that that "market price" they paid last year is still their home's "worth?"
Um...no, that was the market price last year when they bought the place. The current worth is what the current market would bear. Duh.
Posted by: rg checker at April 7, 2008 8:17 PM
I also live down the (sunny side) street, and expect to increasingly enjoy the neighborhood versus i,e 24 to 20th Sts. However, properties are sitting on the market longer here as most everywhere, and I would not expect this place to hold much value for the next 5 years after realtor fees. Buy gold.
Posted by: ED at April 15, 2008 4:30 PM
Sold on 04/11/2008
Posted by: NoeValleyJim at November 23, 2011 12:10 AM