The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has now lowered expectations for their 2007 national housing forecast for the third time. The newly revised forecast calls for a 4.6% decline in 2007 existing-home sales (down from -2.2% -2.9%), and a 1.3% drop in median existing-home prices (down from -0.7% -1.0%).
At the same time, a rebound is currently being forecast for 2008.
∙ NAR Revises Forecast (Key Phrase: “Stricter Lending Standards”) [SocketSite]
∙ Realtors lower forecast for home sales [msnbc]
∙ Home prices: More pain to come [CNNMoney]
Their accuracy is a complete joke. They have no clue of what’s going to happen in Q3, let alone when and where the “rebound” will arrive.
What surprises me is that NAR is even willing to release these numbers. NAR has been spinning so hard to keep prices and transactions up that I am surprised they are willing to give such a bad forecast.
I am even more surprised that the numbers have been so bad they have been forced to revise their ’07 forecast 3 times this year.
’07 is the first time NAR has every forecasted a negative national median since they started tracking these numbers 40 years ago.
Couple the still dropping sales volume with the 11% rise in Bay Area inventory MoM and many sellers are going to be under alot of pressure.